The current British government is in danger.
After Chancellor of the Exchequer Sunak and Health Secretary Javid announced their resignations on Tuesday due to losing confidence in Prime Minister Johnson, on Wednesday local time, the Ministry of Education Minister for Primary Education Will Quince and the Ministry of Education School Affairs Minister Robin Walker, Home Office Justice Secretary Victoria Atkins, UK Treasury Secretary for Economic Affairs John Glenn and many others submitted their resignations.
According to statistics from the British media below, a total of 31 members of the Johnson government have resigned within two days of Tuesday and Wednesday.
Despite facing his most serious crisis of confidence, Johnson insisted on Wednesday that he would stay in office. In response to a question about whether he would seek election instead of resigning if he loses a confidence vote, Johnson told a parliamentary committee: "I will not resign. Frankly, the last thing this country needs is an election."
According to CCTV According to reports, during the Prime Minister's Question in Parliament on Wednesday, Johnson also said that he had received a "huge mandate" from the 2019 election and would "keep going."
Johnson narrowly survived a vote of confidence from the Conservative Party in parliament last month. According to current regulations, Parliament will not hold a new confidence vote within one year after the confidence vote is held. However, CCTV mentioned that on Wednesday, the "1922 Committee", a group of Conservative members of the British House of Commons and the organization that organized the vote of confidence, stated that an internal election would be held on the 11th. The new committee is expected to revise the rules for confidence votes.
This means that even if Johnson himself does not want to, he may still be forced to resign because he fails to pass a new vote of confidence.
Conservative MP Gary Sambrook, a member of the 1922 Committee, told Johnson in the House of Commons on Wednesday that he must take responsibility and resign.
The market is currently betting that Johnson has a high chance of resigning this year. The website of British betting company Smarkets shows that the expected contract probability of Johnson resigning as prime minister this year is as high as 95.24%, and the probability of resigning next year and the year after or after is only 4.17% and 2.17% respectively.
PredictIt, an online political and financial event prediction website, even shows that the probability of Johnson resigning by the end of August this year is more than 70%.
According to statistics from Statista Research, if Johnson resigns within a month, he will become one of the shortest-term British Prime Ministers in history, ranking fourth among the shortest terms of any resigned prime minister since 1945.
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