Compiled by: Hou Bing
Source: Chinese think tank public account
On June 30, the Russian "Free Media" website published an article by Sergei Ishchenko entitled "Russia was forced to return Snake Island to Ukraine", the content is as follows :
On June 30, 2022, Kiev announced that it had achieved another brilliant victory since the Russian army was forced to evacuate the Ukrainian capital this spring. Because the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that day that after many bloody battles, the Russian army finally evacuated from Snake Island near Odessa. In the more than four months of special military operations, there has been a lot of commentary on the important strategic value of this small island.
The Russian Ministry of Defense released the above news and said that the move was to "express goodwill." Russia wants to prove that it will not hinder the United Nations 's efforts to export agricultural products from Ukraine, and does not want the Kiev authorities to continue to hype this topic.
Obviously, this is a "military and political trick" played by Moscow. In the previous stage, we fought bloody battles to hold on to Snake Island. If the Russian army wants to land in Odessa next, this is an excellent springboard.
Snake Island is a small island with an area of only 0.205 square kilometers. If long-range artillery and rocket launchers are deployed on the island, the Marine Corps will receive powerful fire support when they attack Odessa. After Russia seized Snake Island at the end of February, it immediately deployed the "Tor-M2U" surface-to-air missile and the "Pantsir-M1" artillery and artillery integrated air defense system on the island, which can provide air defense cover for the Marine Corps in the future.
In addition, it is only 35 kilometers away from the outlet of Danube , and the Danube River is the boundary river between Romania and Ukrainian Odessa Oblast. Therefore, many military experts point out that if you control Snake Island, you will control the entire northwest of the Black Sea. For this purpose, only a few radar and electronic countermeasures systems need to be deployed on the island. Of course, it should be admitted that this is no easy task, as Snake Island is too small for many large equipment.
It is pointless to discuss all this now. At present, Moscow has to admit that since Snake Island is only 140 kilometers away from Odessa and 35 kilometers from the nearest coast, the enemy has a unique tactical advantage. Ukraine can completely destroy Snake Island with precise firepower. The Russian defenders had nowhere to hide except hastily built trenches.
As early as May 7-8, the Ukrainian army launched its first large-scale attack on Shedao, but failed and suffered heavy casualties. Kiev lost dozens of elite special forces , 3 combat boats, 3 Su-24 frontline bombers, 1 Su-27 fighter, 1 Mi-24 fire support helicopter and 3 Mi-8 transports carrying airborne troops military helicopter.
In this quick decisive battle, the Russian side also suffered heavy losses. In the following days, many Black Sea Fleet sailors who died on Snake Island were buried in Sevastopol alone.
Obviously, Ukraine will never give up this small island and turn it into a bait to deal with the Russian army. On June 20, the Ukrainian army launched another large-scale attack. According to a report from the Russian Ministry of Defense, 15 surveillance drones participated in the battle, 13 of which were shot down by the Russian army.
The main difference from the previous attack is that the planners of the Ukrainian Army General Staff attach great importance to the use of artillery provided by the West, and the quality of the attack has been greatly improved. For example, it is speculated that the "Haimas" rocket launcher and the advanced 155mm howitzer (with a range of 40 kilometers and a circular probability deviation of only 5 meters) provided by the United States to Ukraine were used.
The Ukrainian military intelligence department confirmed that this time the Russian army suffered heavy casualties. For proof, satellite photos are provided, and you can clearly see the traces of explosions and fires at the location of Russia's previous air defense system .
Military experts pointed out that as Ukraine acquires new equipment, Snake Island’s weak links have been exposed. It can intercept cruise missiles or rocket shells launched by the Ukrainian army, but there is no good way to deal with the howitzer . We can only hide, but where to hide?
Another new situation has caused the threat faced by the Russian army to rise sharply.The West began to provide advanced anti-ship cruise missiles to the Ukrainian army, including Norway's NSM (Naval Strike Missile) and the United States' Harpoon . France promised to provide "Flying Fish".
Any of the above missiles can easily cover Snake Island from the sea. Moreover, a dense "fence" that is difficult for Russian warships and supply ships to overcome will be built close to the island, that is, the missile will cut off the supply line between Snake Island and Crimea .
Related information shows that after the above-mentioned threats emerged, the Black Sea Fleet had to use submarine to provide supplies to the defenders of Snake Island in recent weeks. This is very much like Sevastopol, which was besieged by Hitler's elements in 1942, but will this provide enough supplies?
There is no doubt that it was for the above reasons, rather than "releasing goodwill", that Russia had to abandon Snake Island. But the Snake Island that is causing us headaches now will also make Kiev uneasy. Because Ukraine’s defense of this small island will not be easier than Russia’s before June 30.
Although the Ukrainian army can receive fire support from Odessa, the Russian assault aviation, "Iskander" and "Caliber" missiles can instantly reduce the defenders on the island to ashes. Just give an order. When did
give the order? Russian experts believe that the order will be issued only if the Russian General Staff puts the theoretical possibility of capturing Odessa on the realistic agenda of a special military operation. But that day will come.
Everything will be back to the way it was then. If Russia needs to, it can recapture Snake Island without any effort. There is currently no need to deploy personnel to the island. The recapture of the islands would be carried out simultaneously with the capture of Odessa.
The fundamental reason for abandoning Snake Island is that the capture of Odessa is far away, and it is meaningless to pay too many casualties for this small island..
