Recently, Russia defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in a century, but no one in Russia paid much attention to it. Because there are more important things going on.
On July 3, the Russian "Kommersant" reported that under the instruction of Putin, the Russian government recently formulated a draft law to ensure the Russian military's war operations abroad. The Kremlin hopes to obtain unrestricted special powers during the war, including war mobilization, administrative orders to work overtime "besides legal working hours" in various industries, prohibiting any enterprise from refusing to sign contracts with the government for the supply of national goods and services, etc. .
Kommersant said the Kremlin had completed drafting the bill and submitted it to the State Duma. They are proposed amendments to the Defense Law, and the government wants to break through existing legal limits on executive power with a line that "ensures the conduct of counter-terrorism and other war operations by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other forces, military formations and foreign institutions" .
In the draft, the Kremlin stated that the war includes special military operations on the territory of the DPR, LPR and Ukrainian . DPR and LPR are Russia's abbreviations for Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk .
Kommersant said in the report that it is worth noting that Kremlin officials believe that in the case of war, "the demand for repairing weapons and military equipment and providing material and technical means has increased in the short term." Therefore, the government needs to take "special economic measures".
Saburo read this report in Kommersant and put himself in the shoes of the Russian people and Russian entrepreneurs. He felt that Russia, which was taken on a war ship by Putin, was isolated from the international community and faced with strong economic sanctions from the West and Amid the stubborn resistance of the Ukrainian people, the country is swaying violently, making it difficult to move forward, and is in danger of overturning and sinking at any time. Once this bill is passed by the Duma, it will definitely be passed (after all, Putin has already highly controlled the Duma), and the lives of Russians and Russian companies will definitely be more difficult. There are three reasons:
1. The Kremlin will have unfettered power
In this draft called the "National Defense Law" Amendment, the Russian government has added the following powers to the Kremlin without any approval process:
First, it can Organize any activities at any time within the territory of Russia;
The second is to organize national mobilization at any time;
The third is to requisition all facilities at any time;
The fourth is to use the state reserve material assets at any time and cancel them;
The fifth is to formulate legal provisions on special labor relations , including requiring any Russian to work "outside statutory working hours, at night, on weekends and on non-working holidays";
Six is that it can be purchased from a single supplier to fulfill defense orders and form inventory;
Seven is that if the Russian Federation If the government makes any of the above decisions, individual citizens and legal entities, regardless of their organizational and legal forms and ownership forms, have no right to refuse to conclude contracts with the government or to refuse to supply goods, perform work, provide services under state contracts to ensure that The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, other troops, military formations and institutions conduct military operations for any purpose outside the territory of the Russian Federation.
2. Russian workers and enterprises will lose all autonomy
The Kremlin, in order to ensure that the armed forces conduct military operations abroad, requires the Duma to give itself " If the Russian government makes any of the above decisions, individual citizens and legal entities, regardless of their organizational and legal form and form of ownership, have no right to refuse to enter into contracts with the government, to refuse to supply goods, perform work, provide services under state contracts ".Judging from the existing powers of national governments, after the Kremlin increases the above-mentioned powers, it will have the largest power among more than 190 national governments in the world.
Crucially, there are no protective measures, or exceptions or exemptions from liability for the property and labor of businesses and individuals in the draft. Once such a law is passed and implemented, the relationship between the Kremlin and Russian companies and people has actually become one of absolute power and absolute obedience. The freedom of contract, freedom of transaction, and freedom of labor in the market economy will no longer exist in Russia. Of course, property protection will also no longer exist.
3. Putin is ready to prolong the war in Ukraine
From a logical point of view, if Putin is only prepared to fight a short-term war, or Putin is confident in his military power, this draft revision of the "National Defense Law" seems Not necessary. There is only one explanation for Vladimir Putin's attempt to amend the National Defense Law and provide the Kremlin with unrestricted powers that will certainly arouse high resentment and resistance from Russian businesses and workers. We have lost confidence in the victory of the war.
But from Putin’s perspective, declaring the war against Ukraine a failure would be a lifelong shame, and he would also have to bear the consequences of stepping down and being held accountable. Therefore, even though they know that it is difficult for their military power to gain an advantage in the war against Ukraine in the short term, they still hope to use a long-term protracted war to wear down the endurance and confidence of Europe and the United States in assisting Ukraine.
But the whole country of Russia may be completely unprepared for a protracted war. Judging from the public opinion in Russia after the war started on February 24, Putin was not prepared for a protracted war at all in the war against Ukraine. When a short-term war turns into a long-term war, how to supplement the huge consumption of personnel, weapons and equipment is an issue that Putin must consider. It can be reasonably speculated that in the past four months, Russia's military losses and weapons and equipment consumption in the Ukrainian battlefield, including generals, have been more than 20, which may have reached the limit of Russia's current armaments. To prepare for a protracted war, Putin must quickly carry out war mobilization and prioritize Russia's existing domestic labor force and economic capabilities to prepare for war.
【Xu Sanlang】
