Russia has never been one to swallow its troubles. Under the siege of the West, it is not surprising that Russia launched a counterattack. However, under Russia's conditions, apart from military deterrence, Russia's only advantage over the West is resources. Among them, the resource that can threaten the West the most is energy.
Therefore, Russia’s new point of retaliation still falls in the energy field.
Recently, Russian President Putin signed a presidential decree to implement special economic measures in the fuel and energy fields in response to the unfriendly behavior of certain foreign countries and international organizations. According to the document, Japan received a blow. The assets of Sakhalin Energy Company, which Japan has invested and operated for many years, will be transferred to Russia.
Japan itself is an energy-poor country and attaches great importance to this project. It is reported that the Sakhalin 2 project was originally held by Gazprom with 50% of the shares, Shell held 27.5% of the shares, while Japan's Mitsui & Co. and Mitsubishi Group had 12.5% and 10% of the shares respectively. . After the war between Russia and Ukraine, Shell announced its withdrawal from the project under Western sanctions. Although Japan sided with the United States and cooperated with the Western sanctions against Russia, Japan insisted that it would not withdraw from the project .
Russia's measures immediately stimulated Japan. Japan's Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Seiji said that the Japanese government is trying to understand Russia's intentions. However, the more Japan cannot let go of the oil and gas project, the more Russia will see Japan's intentions clearly. Pain point .
Russia chose to attack Japan for two main reasons:
First, Japan's provocation against Russia made Russia determined to teach a lesson. Among Asian countries, in order to cater to the United States, Japan is particularly active in participating in sanctions against Russia. At the same time, Japan sees that the Russian army is trapped in the battlefield of Ukraine and has no time to care about it. It has repeatedly said that it will take back the Southern Kuril Islands (Japan calls it "Northern Kuril Islands"). Four Islands").
In order to deter Japan, the Russian military may send warships to circumvent the Japanese islands, or send military aircraft to approach the skies over the Sea of Japan. In the economic field, Russia has also counterattacked, such as suspending Japanese fishermen's fishing in the Southern Kuril Islands. This time, Russia Start with oil and gas projects that Japan attaches greater importance to.
Second, pick the soft persimmon. It is difficult for Russia to effectively counterattack the United States. Although Russia has reduced its natural gas supply to the EU, the EU also intends to get rid of its energy dependence on Russia. It seeks liquefied gas from Qatar in the United States and restarts coal power.
However, the EU has not yet made up its mind to completely abandon Russian energy. Russia is only promoting the establishment of a Greater Eurasian Partnership and does not intend to completely decouple from the EU. Since we want to fight back against the West, Japan is a suitable choice. Even if there is a stalemate with Japan, the impact on Russia will be limited.
In contrast, in the face of Russia's "energy offensive", although the United States also suffered obvious backlash, it was not that nervous. As oil prices soar, US inflation is high, but Biden is more concerned about containing Russia. When asked how long the United States would have to endure high oil prices, Biden replied: "As long as it takes."
Biden's reply caused an uproar. American public opinion circles, especially the Republican , considered it a "shame" and accused Biden of putting Ukraine before Americans.
But in fact, the Russia-Ukraine war only pushed up the inflation in the United States. Even before the war between Russia and Ukraine, the United States was already facing a serious inflation crisis due to Biden's crazy printing of U.S. dollars. At that time, Biden put the inflation in the United States and The supply chain crisis is blamed on Trump and the previous administration. After the war between Russia and Ukraine began, Biden repeatedly blamed Putin and coined the term "Putin's price increase." Rather than saying that Biden is willing to endure high oil prices to aid Ukraine, it is better to say that the Biden administration is simply unable to solve the inflation problem.
At the same time, because the sunk cost of the United States in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is too high, as long as the United States can afford it, the Biden administration will not be willing to stop until Russia pays a price that satisfies the United States.
Therefore, despite Zelensky’s hope of ending the war before this winter, the United States did not continue and instead provided additional aid to Ukraine. Biden recently announced that the United States will provide Ukraine with another $800 million in new weapons, and claimed that the United States will continue as long as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine lasts.
Of course, the United States' aid to Ukraine is not just to weaken Russia. The United States' military-industrial complex also sees huge benefits. Dutch Prime Minister Rutte called on all countries to provide weapons assistance to Ukraine, even if they empty their stockpiles and even if they are unable to protect their homeland in the coming months. After European countries clear their weapons inventories, American arms dealers can start their machines and sell new weapons to Europe.
NATO claims to arm Ukraine with NATO standards, which can also allow other NATO members to "trade-in" weapons. The United States has fallen into "stagflation," but the Biden administration can count on the arms business to drive internal circulation in the United States. In this way, the United States can tolerate "Putin's price increases" for a long time.
