On June 29, according to Global Network, the United States put five Chinese companies on the "trade blacklist" on the grounds of "suspected support of the Russian military industry and defense industry." Just a few days ago, the United States just issued a Xinjiang-related The bi

June 29, according to global website , the United States put five Chinese companies on the "trade blacklist" on the grounds of "suspected support of the Russian military industry and defense industry." Just a few days ago, the United States just issued The Xinjiang-related bill stipulates that goods in the Xinjiang region must provide so-called certificates of "no forced labor", otherwise they will be prohibited from entering the United States. In just one week, the United States has taken action against Chinese companies twice, making Biden 's compromise idea with China became a bubble.

In mid-June, Biden expressed at the White House that he was inclined to cancel some of the additional tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the United States, and said that relevant decisions would be released as soon as the end of the month. However, U.S. Trade Representative Dai Qi said that the tariffs on China would be cancelled. It will cause the United States to lose its "chip." Under the highly inflationary economic situation in the United States, canceling tariffs on China is equivalent to the Biden administration's "self-rescue measures." However, under the pressure of the mid-term elections and the opposition parties, the Biden administration was forced to take a series of hawk-like measures against China. , which will undoubtedly push the U.S. economy further into the abyss.

Recently, many media reports have mentioned that the inflation rate in the United States has reached 8.6%, a new high in 40 years. The reason why 40 years is used as a measurement standard is because 40 years ago, the United States had great inflation. It is more aggressive and destructive. Compared with the current inflation, the last inflation has many similar triggers. If the United States wants to control the current inflation, it must trace the source and learn lessons from the last inflation.

The outbreak of great inflation in the United States in the 1970s and 1980s was rooted in three major factors.

The first thing is to print money on a large scale, and the currency circulation in the market has increased sharply. Due to the establishment of the Bretton Woods system after World War II, the US dollar was pegged to gold. For every 35 more dollars of currency printed by the United States, it had to reserve 1 ounce of gold. However, gold reserves are limited, which limits The possibility of the United States misprinting U.S. dollars in exchange for capital.

In the 1960s, the United States intervened in the Vietnam War and invested a lot of money in it. With the bottomless consumption of the Vietnam War, the United States was under increasing financial pressure and its fiscal deficit was increasing. Therefore, the United States It began to secretly print money and release money, and the credit of the US dollar was hit. This was the second factor that led to the outbreak of inflation, that is, the collapse of the US dollar monetary system.

As the United States prints money aggressively, domestic inflation continues to intensify, which has aroused the vigilance of European and other countries. French President De Gaulle took the lead in requesting that the U.S. dollars in reserves be exchanged for gold. Subsequently, more and more countries began to respond, but the United States was printing excessively. The U.S. dollar has far exceeded its own gold reserves. U.S. President Nixon announced that the U.S. dollar will no longer be linked to gold, causing the U.S. dollar to become almost a piece of waste paper. Domestic prices rose rapidly, inflation began to break out, and what followed was The oil crisis has exacerbated the scale of inflation.

In the 1970s, the Fourth Middle East War broke out. The Soviet Union and the United States supported the Arab world and Israel respectively. However, Arab countries were the main suppliers of international oil. In order to combat the West, Arab countries started supplying oil to Western countries. Due to the embargo, international oil prices soared more than fourfold, and the surge in energy prices caused U.S. inflation to reach its peak.

Looking at the current situation in the United States, compared to the situation 40 years ago, it can be said that history is repeating itself. Since the epidemic, Trump and the Biden administration have been printing money aggressively and investing more than 10 trillion US dollars in the market, while the international community The shutdown of production has made it difficult for the printed dollars to flow to the world. Prices in the domestic market have soared. The deterioration of the U.S. economy has directly affected capital confidence. It is difficult to sell U.S. debt. Countries have sold off their bond holdings. In addition, Iran and other Middle East Six countries have successively adopted RMB to settle energy trade, which has hit the U.S. dollar system. The energy crisis triggered by the situation in Ukraine has further aggravated the inflation situation in the United States.

Under this situation, the Federal Reserve went crazy raising interest rates , first raising interest rates by 50 points, and then directly raising interest rates to 75 points, but it turned out that the effect was very little. If the United States wants to control inflation, the root cause is to find the anchor of the US dollar. Objects, redefining the value of the dollar.

During the inflation 40 years ago, the US dollar signed a petrodollar agreement with Saudi Arabia and other countries on the premise of security commitments, stipulating that international oil trade must be settled in US dollars. With the wave of the second industrial revolution , The U.S. dollar once again went to the world, became the world currency and was exported to other countries, thus solving the inflation crisis in the United States. At that time, the anchor of the U.S. dollar was oil.

Back to the present, with the advancement of shale oil technology, the United States has become a major international energy exporter. The relationship between countries in the Middle East and the United States continues to deteriorate. Oil trade has gradually been settled in RMB, which has been affected by the situation in Ukraine. As a result, another major energy exporting country, Russia, began to use rubles to settle oil and natural gas trade, causing great damage to the US dollar oil system.

The gold dollar has been denied, and the petrodollar is not easy to use. Where is the anchor of the dollar? There are only commodities. As the hollowing out of the US industry continues to intensify, the creation of a commodity dollar system cannot be separated from the participation of the world's largest industrial country, that is, China.

As the only country in the world that owns all categories in the United Nations industrial system, China’s product manufacturing capabilities are unquestionable. From trains, rockets, cars and ships to lighters, matches, clothing, shoes and hats, China has unparalleled production capabilities. Since China joined the WTO, high-quality and low-priced Chinese goods have been exported to countries all over the world and have become indispensable necessities for foreign people. During the epidemic period, Chinese goods once became the pillar of stabilizing prices in the West.

This is a big opportunity for the United States. After careful consideration, Biden proposed to cancel the additional tariffs on China. This means that after Chinese goods enter the U.S. market, the price will be lower and the volume will be larger, which is of great significance to stabilizing U.S. prices. It will also be a big help to the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to withdraw the U.S. dollar. Research by a U.S. think tank shows that if The cancellation of all tariffs imposed by the United States on China can reduce the U.S. CPI by about 1.3 percentage points. However, facts have proved that the dispute between the two parties in the United States has transcended the national interests of the United States.

The White House's response to Biden's proposal seemed very wavering. While criticizing the "irresponsible" tariffs imposed on China during the Trump era, it also said that the Biden administration was still discussing it. The biggest pressure on Biden to be soft on China is the mid-term elections in November. Due to his ineffective governance, Biden's approval rate has hit new lows, and the political fate of the Democratic Party is bleak. If tariffs are cut at this time, it may be a big challenge for the election. .

Although the U.S. Treasury Yellen and Commerce Secretary Raimondo both support reducing tariffs on China, believing that this will "reduce the burden on American consumers," the American Retail Association, experts and scholars have written to Biden to support this idea, However, judging from the U.S.’s introduction of Xinjiang-related laws and suppression of Chinese companies, the Biden administration is still not ready to compromise with China.

This will most likely bring back the great inflation in the United States 40 years ago. With the United States suppressing Chinese companies, this crisis has entered a countdown.