Author: Shi Jiangyue
Before the NATO summit, the atmosphere was already heated. Mainly two very big things.
First, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said that after consultations, Turkey has agreed to support Sweden and Finland to join NATO. Turkey made this decision after negotiations between the leaders of Turkey, Sweden and Finland and Stoltenberg.
This means that NATO will usher in the sixth round of expansion, and Finland borders Russia with thousands of kilometers of border lines. So it means that what Ukraine failed to do, Finland is about to do. NATO has finally advanced its sphere of influence to Russia's doorstep.
Second, NATO will massively expand the number of rapid reaction force from the previous 40,000 to 300,000. That is equivalent to 7.5 times the original amount.
NATO is expanding on one side and increasing its troops on the other. What kind of response will Russia make next?
Regarding NATO's new round of expansion, until a few hours before the NATO summit, Turkish President Erdogan also stated, "Turkey needs results, not empty words!" Sweden and Finland Whether he can join NATO as he wishes depends on the strongman's decision. NATO has been hoping to persuade Türkiye to give up its veto power, but it has been wavering between cautious optimism and uncertainty.
However, on the evening of the 28th local time, Stoltenberg suddenly said: "I am fortunate to announce that we have now reached an agreement on Finland and Sweden joining NATO." Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding with Finland and Sweden in response to Turkey's concerns, especially regarding arms exports and the fight against terrorism.
Obviously, NATO, Finland and Sweden have given Turkey a satisfactory response and met some of Turkey's concerns. Finally, Türkiye changed its decision.
According to an anonymous senior US official, it was US President Biden who played an important role in this key negotiation in private. Biden was invited by Helsinki and Stockholm to hold talks with Erdogan that day. It is very likely that the United States agreed to some of Turkey's demands, and the United States may have sacrificed some chips in exchange for the greater benefit of NATO expansion. It is not clear yet what the bargaining chip of
is.
Erdogan previously did not support Sweden and Finland joining NATO, except for the public reasons that the two countries shelter members of the Kurdistan Workers Party and the crackdown on Gulen's movement . Another important factor is Ankara 's relationship with the United States. Before Erdogan left, he said that an important topic in his meeting with Biden was the deal for F-16 fighter jets. Turkey ordered this batch of U.S. fighter jets very early and has partially paid for them. However, the deal was put on hold after Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 air defense system.
Turkey previously applied to the United States to purchase 40 F-16 fighter jets manufactured by Lockheed Martin Company and nearly 80 sets of modern equipment for existing fighter aircraft. After being kicked out of the F-35 project, Turkey is looking for other ways to modernize its air force. If the United States agrees to Turkey, Turkey will indeed get what it wants.
Erdogan emphasized before meeting with the Prime Ministers of Finland and Sweden, "Turkey has been a member of the EU for 70 years, and we hope to witness our unity through the summit." But he added that if Sweden and Finland want to become NATO members, they must consider Turkey's concerns and there is no other way. Therefore, the signal given by Türkiye is obvious.
After Turkey reached an agreement with Finland and Sweden, Washington said that "this provides a strong impetus for Western unity." British Prime Minister Johnson praised the joining of Sweden and Finland to make NATO "stronger and more secure."
html As soon as Erdogan arrived in Madrid on the 28th, he immediately started "final negotiations" with the Prime Minister of Finland, the Prime Minister of Sweden, and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg as the "mediator".Before the negotiations began, NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg had cautiously expressed the hope that Finland and Sweden's accession process would make progress at this summit.Stoltenberg did not disclose more details, but the United States and some major NATO countries are very clear that if the deadlock cannot be resolved, and if Turkey maintains its veto power, in the context of Russia's current military deployment in Ukraine, the failure of Finland and Sweden to join the alliance will undoubtedly have a negative impact. NATO was a big setback.
French President Macron even used aggressive tactics before, saying that "Turkey should make it clear that it is on our side."
It should be said that Erdogan came prepared. The last time Erdogan and Biden met was in Rome last October, when the G20 Rome Summit met. Later, the relationship between Türkiye and the United States continued to be at odds.
On Monday night, Erdogan also said that he had brought some documents and pictures to the summit, showing "how hypocritical the posture of our dialogue partners towards terrorists such as the PKK."
However, on Tuesday night, the Turkish Presidential Palace issued an announcement stating that "President Erdogan has received full cooperation from Finland and Sweden in combating the PKK."
The changes in Türkiye are not unpleasant.
Previously, Russia had stated that if Finland joins NATO, Moscow will make necessary responses. Including Russia will adjust its strategic force deployment to ensure that its nuclear deterrent can defend national interests and resolutely counterattack hostile actions at critical times.
In this context, on the one hand, for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine will be encouraged, its morale may be boosted, and it may launch a counterattack. On the other hand, NATO may show new unity and put pressure on Russia.
As for another big move by NATO, the troop increase will be 300,000. This upgrade is mainly for the troops in the Baltic countries and several eastern flank countries (a total of 8 frontline positions), which will be transferred to the brigade level. Measured in this way, the number of troops stationed may expand from the original 1,000 to 3,000-5,000.
Obviously, this is the biggest reform and adjustment of NATO's collective defense and deterrence since Cold War . NATO is also blunt, emphasizing that the purpose of this move is to clearly send a deterrent message to Russia so that Russia cannot act rashly.
NATO members are expected to make it clear at the summit that they regard Russia as "the biggest and most direct threat to NATO's security." NATO's rapid reaction force includes the army, navy, and air force. Its purpose is to respond quickly when encountering an attack. Currently, most of the troops are deployed on the east flank.
In addition, Stoltenberg urged the leaders of NATO countries who came to Madrid for the summit to continue to support Ukraine, which is being violently attacked by Russia, and said that the military attack faced by Ukraine was rare in Europe since World War II.
Ukraine is fighting against the Russian army. At the same time, NATO allies have shipped billions of dollars worth of weapons to Kiev , including more heavy weapons and weapons with increasingly longer ranges.
NATO is expected to reach agreement on another joint program at the Madrid summit, including the provision of secure communications equipment, anti-drone systems, and training to help the Ukrainian army switch to more modern Western weapons in the longer term.
However, Russia is not afraid of these actions of NATO. Former Russian President Medvedev warned NATO not to act rashly. If any NATO country dares to invade Crimea, it will be regarded as a declaration of war against Russia, which may trigger the Third World War.
Medvedev, "For Russians, Crimea is now a part of Russia and will always be. Any attempt to invade Crimea is a declaration of war against our country." It can be said that this is a warning to Ukraine. , is also a warning to NATO. Don't take advantage of Crimea, otherwise the war will further expand.
Moreover, even if NATO increases its troops by 300,000, Russia will have corresponding countermeasures.
Russia has stated that if Finland and Sweden join NATO, Russia will strengthen the deployment of force on the border and will prepare for retaliatory measures. These measures may include the deployment of "Iskander" tactical missiles in border areas with these countries. In addition, if necessary, it will carry nuclear warhead . Russia is a fighting nation after all.
