Today we talk about the impact of the war in Ukraine on Europe.
1 Lu Quan on
Recently Medvedev has been a bit too strong, and has made many remarks about the situation in Ukraine.
A few days ago, he expressed his position on the new round of aid from the United States, saying that if the weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine are used to attack Russia itself, Russia will definitely burn the flames of war to NATO countries.
In the past two days, he also said that the EU may suffer the same fate as the Soviet Union and disappear from the map before Ukraine joins.
He also likened the EU's commitment to Ukraine to Soviet leaders' plans to establish communism.
These words make people feel like they have drunk too much fake wine, but they also echo an old Chinese saying - words that are rough and reasoned are not rough.
The conflict in Ukraine began with NATO’s eastward expansion . Guanyun has analyzed this point many times.
In geopolitics, Ukraine has a very special status and is the "Lord of the Rings" of power.
Everyone should still have an impression of the "land power theory".
In modern times, despite the great development of maritime trade, the "land power theory" still dominated for a long time.
Especially with the rapid development of industry and the occurrence of the land mechanical transportation revolution, land becomes even more important.
In 1919, the British geopolitical scientist Mackinder put forward a famous three-stage political prophecy: "Whoever rules Eastern Europe will control the heart of the continent; whoever controls the heart of the continent will control the world island ( Eurasia); whoever controls the world island can control the entire world."
And Ukraine is the core of Eastern Europe.
There are rich mineral resources here, fertile black land, and convenient transportation.
Therefore, Ukraine has become the focus of competition for all parties.
As a British person, Mai believed that the countries most likely to control the heartland were Russia and Germany. In his view, either Germany's conquest of Russia or Russia's alliance with Germany would lead to the emergence of a hegemon in the heartland.
His original intention was to warn the maritime powers (led by Britain at the time) to prevent Russian expansion and the Russian-German alliance, but in fact it also provided a yardstick for European powers to manage Europe.
McFarland's theory is not groundless. It is based on many historical facts and humanistic characteristics. At the same time, it caters to the panic psychology of Anglo-Saxons living in an island country. Therefore, it has naturally become an important basis for Western geopolitics.
Strictly speaking, Churchill was able to convince Roosevelt to take action during World War II because this theory was deeply rooted in the hearts of the people.
After World War II, this theory was still gaining momentum.
2 "The Lord of the Rings" dispute
On April 4, 1949, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was formally established, with the main purpose of curbing the Soviet Union's westward expansion.
In the eyes of Western countries led by the United States, the slogan of liberating all mankind is too scary. They never think that this is the common aspiration of mankind. They think this is an excuse for the Soviet Union to want to unify the world.
Therefore, throughout World War II, there were constant rumors that the Soviet Union wanted to unite and destroy the West.
In the eyes of adherents of these rumors, the Soviet Union has completed control of the core areas of Eurasia, and it seems logical to overthrow the entire Old Continent.
Therefore, even if Stalin disbanded the Communist International, it would not be able to dispel the doubts of the West.
Let’s take a look at Churchill’s Iron Curtain speech : “From the Baltic Sea Szczecin to Trieste on the Adriatic Sea, an Iron Curtain has been drawn across the European continent. Behind the Iron Curtain are the capitals of all the ancient countries in Central and Eastern Europe - (a bunch of capital names). These famous cities and the surrounding populations are all located within the sphere of influence of the Soviet Union, and they all have one kind or another. In this way, not only did they fall under the influence of the Soviet Union, but they were increasingly controlled by Bosque. "
From this, we can understand how anxious the Anglo-Saxons were.
This anxiety was not relieved until the Soviet Union was collapsed through peaceful evolution and Eastern Europe fell into division.
But the fight for the "Lord of the Rings" is not over yet.
The Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, , but NATO did not disband. Americans told Europeans that the alarm has not been lifted. The successor of the Soviet Union, the country that shamelessly wanted to join the West, Russia, also has a large number of nuclear weapons , this piece of Europe Can't grasp it.
Therefore, the United States can confidently retain its military presence in Europe.
In fact, everyone knows what the Anglo-Saxons want to do.
The temptation to conquer the world is too great. The world's resources are consumed at will, the economy is developing rapidly, and conflicts are resolved through spillovers. It is a properly chosen country.
But European countries are not stupid, especially Germany and France.
On November 1, 1993, with the strong promotion of Germany and France, the "Maastricht Treaty" officially came into effect, and the European Union was born.
If the existence of NATO is the tentacle of the United States extending to the core area, then the establishment of the European Union is a tool for the revival of the great powers of Germany and France.
Throughout the post-Soviet era, NATO and the EU have done one thing invariably, and that is eastward expansion.
all want to reach out to Eastern Europe, but have they considered Russia's feelings?
American strategist Brzezinski said that if Russia can retain control of Ukraine, it still retains the possibility of becoming a great power, but he did not tell the world what would it mean if Russia loses control of Ukraine?
From the map, Russia’s land area is very large, but in fact, Russia’s strategic depth is very small.
Russia has a sparse population and is extremely unevenly distributed. Most of the population lives concentratedly in St. Petersburg in the north, Novorossiysk in the south, and Irkutsk in the east. These three cities are the apexes. In the triangle area. Siberia occupies about 3/4 of Russia's land, but is home to less than 1/4 of the population.
The two largest cities in the country are the Greater Moscow region with a population of 20 million, and the other is St. Petersburg with a population of about 5 million. Apart from this, no other city has a population of more than 2 million.
Therefore, for Russia, even though it is the largest country in the world in terms of land area, once it loses St. Petersburg + Moscow, it will basically be destroyed.
Moscow is less than 500 kilometers away from the Belarus border in the west, and only 600 kilometers away from Ukraine. From Ukraine, missiles can reach Moscow in 25 minutes without any natural barriers.
Belarus and Ukraine are the two doors to Russia. Losing either one means the door is wide open.
There is no doubt that among major countries, Russia is the most vulnerable. This is the situation with
. How do you choose Russia?
3 Putin tactics
History has repeatedly told the world that on the European plains , when desire and panic collide, it often means war.
Of course, Russia is not completely passive, and Putin has no intention of surrendering.
When the Russian army invaded Ukraine, they set up a strange formation-"surrounding three and fighting one."
Donetsk , Kharkiv and Lugansk to the east, Chernihiv to the north, Odessa to the south.
The east is an important industrial base in Ukraine, the south is the sea outlet, and the north is directly pointing to Ukraine's capital Kiev.
Regardless of whether it is for the sake of strength or intentional, in short, this layout creates two situations. First, when Russia takes the initiative in three directions, Ukraine will lose all its outlets to the sea and more than 95% of its industrial zones. , lost its main black land and completely became a landlocked beggar country. In the future, it will hardly survive without Western aid.
Second, refugees generated by the war will flow to the West in large numbers. The total population of Ukraine is 40 million. According to European Commission President von der Leyen, , since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a total of 7.5 million Ukrainian refugees have arrived in the EU.
Therefore, no matter what the reasons are, Putin, who has taken the initiative, does not seem to want to end the war so quickly.
There was a question on Zhihu before: Russia, is it using Ukraine to consume NATO countries?
At that time, I replied that NATO would not necessarily die, but the EU would probably be in trouble.
This situation seems to be more obvious now.
NATO is a military organization. It is a tool used by the United States to control Europe and ultimately serves the interests of the United States. The EU is an economic alliance in Europe led by Germany and France, and it is an amplifier for Germany and France to realize their ambitions as major powers.
The relationship between the EU and NATO is very delicate. As the EU becomes stronger, its dependence on NATO will decrease. If the EU disbands, NATO will strengthen.
So, in a sense, the interests of the United States and Russia are aligned.
Russia’s stab in Ukraine cannot pose a military threat to NATO, but it makes the EU bleed.
After the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, European countries were forced to choose sides.
Regarding this point, some people will always ask, why are these countries so stupid? Isn’t it okay not to listen to the United States?
People who have this question obviously do not understand the political ecology of Europe. Europe is a deformed society that is highly hijacked by public opinion.
All social platforms in Europe are controlled by Americans. After years of indiscriminate bombing, European public opinion basically revolves around the interests of the United States. Internal Madonnas are rampant and have little ability to think rationally.
For example, a few days ago, the European Parliament passed a Xinjiang-related resolution with a high vote of 513:1, slandering China's Xinjiang region as having "human rights issues."
These people have never been to Xinjiang at all, but that does not prevent them from taking issue with Xinjiang-related issues.
The same goes for Ukraine. After Merkel left, Europe was no longer able to protect its own interests, and politicians were coerced.
To put it simply, if you don’t do this, you won’t be able to survive in European politics.
But the consequences are also obvious.
The energy crisis and food crisis are second, but the euro crisis is fatal.
4 Green light above the head
Data released by the Society for Worldwide Interbank and Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) show that after the conflict, the frequency of use of the euro as a global payment currency dropped significantly. In March, the euro's share of the global payment market reached its largest share in 11 years. decrease.
Looking at specific data, in March, the proportion of global payments in euros fell directly from 38% to 35.4%.
At the same time, the US dollar’s share of global payments in the SIWFT system has returned to more than 40%, reaching 41.1%. I didn't find the data behind
, but after Russia insisted on using rubles and to settle oil, I believe the proportion of euros will definitely be lower.
In fact, it can be seen from this that the United States and the European Union are bedfellows.
The right to mint money is the greatest hegemony, and it is impossible for the United States to sincerely allow the decentralization of the euro. As the industrial capacity of EU countries further declines, it is almost inevitable that the US dollar will encroach on the euro's currency.
Moreover, the EU has recently made another outrageous move, as Medvedev mentioned earlier, allowing Ukraine to jump in line and granting the latter EU candidate member status.
To be honest, if Ukraine becomes a formal member of the EU, the only end for the EU is to break up.
The EU is inherently extremely unbalanced. Rich countries have an average per capita of US$50,000, while poor countries have less than US$10,000. There is uneven distribution and many contradictions.
If the per capita price of $4,000 is introduced again, think about the tens of millions of Ukrainians who are waiting for food. Refugee issues, economic problems, and green lights are shining directly over the EU's head.
So I believe Putin is sincere when he says that Russia does not oppose Ukraine joining the EU.
Biden doesn’t object either, and I believe he is sincere.
Of course, European politicians are not all fools. Ukraine's queue-jumping is just the beginning. After all, there are five other countries queuing in front of it, and the longest one has been queuing for 23 years!
But once this temptation to seek death starts, it is very difficult to stop.
Russian media said that Putin is as patient as a hunter and that he can wait 6 to 9 months.
Now it seems that time is on Russia's side. If the war really drags on to this winter, the United States may not necessarily collapse, but it will be difficult for the EU to end well.
5 Epilogue
For Western countries, Ukraine is a "Lord of the Rings", for which it has broken heads and shed blood, but it is hard to say whose head was broken.
The fight between the United States and Russia may break the EU's head.
China does not believe in Mackinder's theory, because it is Eurocentric theory . Whatever rules Eastern Europe rules the world. This is purely an obscenity from 100 years ago.
China supports a multi-polar world.
Therefore, even if there are many ugly people in the EU causing mischief, they may still step in to help them at critical moments.
After all, it would be more conducive to China's development to have another currency that competes with the US dollar. The full text of
is finished, thank you for reading.
