In the past 100 days of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the original world structure has been severely impacted again. At this time, China-EU relations have also become the focus of attention from the outside world. Is it confrontation or relaxation, whether it can maintain stability, whether cooperation can continue, and its future potential How to wait is the focus of attention . Needless to say, China and the EU do have major differences on the Russia-Ukraine issue, especially on key issues such as the nature of the conflict. The existence of such differences has also increased the outside world's concerns about China-EU relations to a certain extent. This concern is not unreasonable. However, from the perspective of the interests of both parties, we are still relatively optimistic about the future direction of China-EU relations.
1. Values diplomacy is the fundamental obstacle to China-EU relations
▲The EU meeting further unified the values of European countries
First of all, we need to explain here what "values diplomacy" is. This diplomatic view may be understood as formulates foreign policy in accordance with its own ideology and political system, and uses diplomatic means with the purpose of influencing the values of other countries' citizens. To put it more bluntly, it is to "promote" one's own values to the world, so that all countries in the world or countries with different values will accept the same ideas and concepts. Why does
add an quotation mark to in "promotion"? It's very simple. In addition to conventional diplomatic means, the methods behind this kind of promotion also include unreasonable means, such as colonization, etc. This kind of promotion obviously has a certain degree of coercion. actually not only promotes values diplomacy in European countries, but also all Western countries basically hold the same attitude. On the whole, and EU have relatively consistent opinions on values diplomacy, and the emergence of this consensus can be traced back to Franco-German reconciliation in the 1960s and 1970s.
▲ In 2019, France and Germany signed the new "German-French Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation"
Due to historical reasons, the relationship between France and Germany was at a deadlock in the early days of the end of World War II . However, as regional powers and neighbors who cannot move away, the two sides still recognized the easing of relations. After the unremitting efforts of the leaders of the two countries, France and Germany signed the "German-French Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation" in January 1963. This move was once regarded as an example of peace, which also promoted the promotion of value-based diplomacy. Provide objective conditions.
Europe then took this opportunity to propose a relatively complete set of procedures and mechanisms for dealing with ideological conflicts, social conflicts and political conflicts, trying to enhance global influence through the output of this mechanism , this was already evident in the Libyan War in 2011. In early April 2011, the EU established a peacekeeping force to deal with the situation in Libya. Under the banner of peacekeeping, it tried to achieve so-called "peace" through military means. The "peace" behind this kind of value is difficult to be accepted by all countries in the world. Moreover, the outbreak of the war in Libya itself has further questioned Europe's "values diplomacy."
▲ France fired the first shot in the Libyan war
Of course, for this kind of "values diplomacy", the European Union, as the European representative, also gave a high-sounding statement and explanation. The EU's values are clearly defined in the EU Treaty, is the Respect for individual dignity, freedom, democracy, equality, rule of law, respect for human rights (including minorities) . On the surface,
does not seem to be a big problem, and even partially overlaps with our core socialist values. However, in the actual implementation process, the EU is like the "world police" asking all countries to accept it, and pointing out the problems of other countries. , make irresponsible remarks, and even directly interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. For example, "Human Rights Issues in Xinjiang" has become Europe's main means of attacking China . Just a few days ago, the European Parliament passed a so-called "Human Rights Situation in Xinjiang" resolution, claiming that there is a "serious risk of genocide" in Xinjiang. This is typically interferes in the internal affairs of other countries under the banner of human rights, which is a manifestation of the strong promotion of "values diplomacy".
▲Prime Minister Zhou Enlai proposed the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence
As early as 1953, Premier Zhou Enlai proposed the Five Basic Principles of Peaceful Coexistence between countries. Among them, mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity and non-interference in each other's internal affairs are the top priorities. This There is a conflict with the "values diplomacy" promoted by the EU to some extent. Of course, the EU will not admit that it interferes in other countries' internal affairs, but all parties are well aware of the facts. Faced with this confrontation at the level of values, it has indeed greatly affected the progress of China-EU relations and has become the focus of debate between the two parties at this stage. In the long term, this is likely to be irreconcilable, unchangeable, and even more inevitable question.
2. Conflict does not mean there is no cooperation
Due to the huge differences between China and the EU in terms of values, it has indeed affected bilateral relations to a great extent, but this does not mean that the future relationship between the two parties will only be confrontation and lose the possibility of cooperation. Again, that sentence , from the perspective of the interests of both parties, there is still a relatively solid basis for cooperation.
- Trade remains a top priority
Economics and trade are always a topic that cannot be avoided, and the same applies to China-EU relations. At the 8th China and Globalization Forum "China-EU Roundtable: Promoting China-EU Economic and Trade Cooperation with Global Sustainable Concepts" sub-forum held recently in Beijing, Chinese and European business leaders had an in-depth discussion on the future development prospects of China-EU trade. . Judging from the results of the discussion, we are still relatively optimistic about the prospects for future cooperation. Chairman of the European Chamber of Commerce in China Wudtke clearly emphasized at the forum: "China and Europe are each other's important trading partners, and Europe's investment in China is deep, long-term and full of commitment."
▲ China-EU bilateral investment status
The importance of China-EU trade cooperation has to start with a piece of data. In early April this year, Eurostat released China-EU trade data for 2021. Last year, the EU exported 223 billion euros to China and imported 472 billion euros from China. Total trade increased by 19.1% year-on-year, imports from China increased by 23.7%, and exports to China An increase of 12.1%. Although the COVID-19 epidemic is raging around the world, bilateral trade is still developing at a high speed from a data perspective. This has to be admired for the overall stability of China-EU trade.
At the same time, there is another detail that cannot be ignored. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first two months of this year, the bilateral goods trade volume between the EU and China reached 874.64 billion yuan, an increase of 12.4%, accounting for my country's total foreign trade. With a value of 14.1%, the EU once again became China’s largest trading partner. In this regard, China's Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said: "This reflects the strong resilience and vitality of China-EU trade."
▲ China-Europe trains witness the progress of China-EU trade
In the special context of a continued downturn in the global economy, continued spread of negative effects on the U.S. economy, and turmoil in the global security situation, it is rare for China and Europe to maintain stable development. EU countries are also well aware of this. Even if they are dissatisfied in their hearts, even if the "values diplomacy" they promote has a huge conflict with China, in the face of its own interests, the EU will still not hesitate to compromise with reality. In its heart It is full of dissatisfaction, but on the surface it still wants to maintain trade cooperation with China, and even continue to expand the areas of trade cooperation.
However, it must also be emphasized that there are two hidden concerns in China-EU trade cooperation, namely the continued expansion of trade surplus with the EU and the balance point of China-EU trade. Relevant data shows that China's trade surplus with the EU will continue to expand in 2021, totaling 690.81 billion yuan, an expansion of 70.2%. This ever-expanding trade surplus is gradually hollowing out Europe, which has aroused the vigilance of some countries. It is precisely because of this that
has directly aroused concern about the trade balance between China and Europe. It is true that this surplus will not fundamentally change in the past and for a long time in the future, but how can protect our own interests? Next, we should try our best to promote a win-win situation, which is very important to both China and Europe. However, we can’t eat hot tofu in a hurry. With a little more patience and a little more time, China-EU trade will definitely go longer and further.
. Both China and Europe hope for world peace
▲ A large number of gas and oil pipelines have stopped operating
As far as the Russia-Ukraine conflict is concerned, have European countries benefited? Instead of making profits, they suffered heavy economic losses. First of all, in the face of Russia's military operations against Ukraine , European countries must limit the scale of Russia's military operations as much as possible under the strong request of the United States and for their own security reasons. , for this reason, the sanctions against Russia have been continuously increased, especially in the energy field. The two sides are fighting to the death. On the one hand, Russia has reduced its energy exports, and on the other hand, European countries have reduced their energy imports from Russia.
However, under the premise that energy demand remains basically unchanged, if European countries want to maintain normal operations, they must purchase the required energy from overseas at high prices, including purchasing from the United States. The EU knows best how much extra money it has spent on this. What is more embarrassing is that these so-called sanctions have not caused the Russian economy to collapse. They have completely hurt the enemy by 800 and hurt itself by 1,000. On the contrary, if the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains relatively stable, or if Russia does not launch special military operations against Ukraine, then it is at least certain that the EU's energy status will not be as embarrassing as it is now. Therefore, from the perspective of its own interests, the EU prefers peace.
▲Russia’s strategic deterrence is not a display.
Secondly, if the worst happens and the United States completely angers Russia, it will not be the United States that will bear the brunt, but Europe, which is closer to Russia. The Russian army will not hesitate to attack its allies like the United States first. Regardless of the final outcome of the war, judging from the comparison of the military strength of the two sides, the losses of European countries will never be lower than those of Russia . In addition, Russia's strategic deterrence capability will be the same. , European countries want peace more than any other country in the world, rather than being "nuclearized" by Russia.
At this time, it is difficult to achieve true peace and avoid war by relying solely on the EU itself. China, a large country in the East and a peace-loving country, has become the hope of the EU and a life-saving straw. For this reason, under the common goal of longing for peace, China and the EU will still persist in cooperation and strengthen cooperation instead of confrontation.
