However, the Russian authorities are taking advantage of these circumstances and trying to implement one of their plans to exert aggressive pressure on the Baltic States. Russian political scientist, Ivan Preobrazhensky analyzed.

Vladimir Putin and Sergey Shoigu celebrate Victory Day in Moscow (09/05/2022)

Reported by Bohua News on July 3 – Moscow is worried about the possibility of armed conflict, which will be a restriction on Response to sanctions on land transit from Lithuania to Kaliningrad Oblast . However, the Russian authorities are taking advantage of these circumstances and trying to implement one of their plans to exert aggressive pressure on the Baltic countries, most likely Lithuania first. Russian political scientist, Ivan Preobrazhensky analyzed. He had already left Russia after the outbreak of war.

Contrast this with history, after World War I along the Gdańsk Corridor through Polish territory to reach Germany. The struggle in the Free City of Gdansk was one of the main reasons for the outbreak of World War II and the attacks on Poland.

Also in this case, from a military strategic point of view, Lithuania has a weakness - the Suwalki Gap. This is the shortest route from "Great Russia" to Kaliningrad Oblast via Belarus , obviously passing through Lithuania. Since the independence of Russia, that is, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the strategic security issue of Kaliningrad Oblast has been one of the fundamentally important issues discussed by the Kremlin. When the Kremlin gradually ramps up the pressure on Alexander Lukashenko , urging the deployment of Russian troops in Belarus, it is not necessarily targeting Ukraine .

Defense of Kaliningrad As one of the main strategic goals of the Russian army, it appeared long before the deterioration of relations between Russia and Ukraine, and even before Putin came to power. Even in the Boris Yeltsin era, the Russian Security Council and the General Staff dealt with this military strategic goal in theory. Now, these concerns are on the minds of Russian military strategists: Lithuania issued a statement restricting "Kaliningrad transit", Sweden and Finland received an official invitation to join NATO , which makes the enclave from Russia Both sea and air transport have become dangerous.

When Russia’s air defense systems were deployed to Belarus ahead of the attack on Ukraine, some military experts wondered in surprise: What was the point of deploying them just a few kilometers from the border? Because in the event of a conflict with a NATO country, they would be destroyed by enemy forces within a few hours. This question has a simple answer: assuming that these air defense systems are moved to the area to exert pressure and not lead to a direct military conflict. Just understand.

For example, imagine that with the introduction of Kaliningrad's air defense and missile defense systems in recent years, S-400 from Belarus "covered" the territory of Lithuania. After all, they can not only protect Russian troops attacking Ukrainian and Belarusian territories. They can also close the entire airspace over the Suwalki Isth at any time.

This will provide an air corridor to Kaliningrad. It can be opened at any time on the grounds of ensuring the safety of Russian citizens, and civil aviation can take off under the cover of the Russian air defense system. Will NATO and EU forces risk stopping Russian civilian aircraft protected by Russian air defense systems?

This is a very important trap that Moscow can use to put pressure on NATO. We're used to hearing arguments about the defense capabilities of the two smaller Baltic states Latvia and Estonia. Who does not remember the party song of the Russian National Bolshevik Party: "Our MiGs will land in Riga!". Last year, people wondered how long Estonia could hold out if Russia invaded it (until a war with Ukraine broke out and Western experts believed Estonia would be overrun by the Russians within 72 hours).

However, this is all a discussion of direct military conflict.However, the Kremlin is not ready for a new, larger conflict with one of the NATO countries if the war with Ukraine does not end. That is why Lithuania is in the most dangerous situation. First, Russia already has a reason to put pressure on it - the Kaliningrad transit. Second, it would be strategically advantageous to isolate all three Baltic states, including Estonia and Latvia, from "mainland" Europe by land. And he has dealt with them by partially converting them into enclaves.

Finally, the main reason is that closing airspace does not necessarily mean war. At least not right away. NATO will not shoot down Russian civilian aircraft that can fly through corridors of Lithuanian airspace, while European aircraft can fly through "closed" corridors of Lithuanian airspace. Just suppressing Russia's air defenses will take a while.

At the same time, smaller NATO countries such as Lithuania may worry that they are not protected. And the weakening of the North Atlantic Alliance is exactly what the Kremlin dreams of. The North Atlantic Alliance identified Russia as the main military threat at the Madrid Summit.

Therefore, the Lithuanian authorities are right to conduct a risk assessment of Russia’s movement through Kaliningrad. But that could end soon, as the EU may agree to release sanctioned goods. But the pressure from the Kremlin will not stop there, as its goal is not just to protect the residents of Kaliningrad.