Just as we are happy, during the May Day holiday, a doctor from a central hospital in Maharashtra, India, issued a warning to the world: the new crown has mutated into a new virus in India. If infected by this mutant virus, once symptoms appear, it only takes 8-10 hours from mild symptoms to death. Moreover, nasal swabs cannot be detected and will be falsely negative because the virus will directly invade the lungs.
This mutated virus will not have fever or cough during the incubation period. Such obvious symptoms will only feel sore and lose appetite at most. And it specifically targets young people and children, in the district where the hospital is located, where more than 400 children have died within a 10-hour course.
The doctors of in Maharashtra state in the announcement weeping and pleading: In the face of this virus, India has completely failed. This virus is beyond all our capabilities. If the government does not implement a strict epidemic prevention blockade, The only thing our doctors can do is to count the number of dead bodies, and this data will make the Spanish flu 100 years ago seem insignificant.
When I saw this news, I thought, this is probably the legendary super virus, because it satisfies the three conditions of a super virus: high fatality rate, very fast spread, and basically no cure. Or more popularly, you can call it "Poison King".
Immediately after, more disturbing news came one after another: an epidemiologist, after the vaccine , was still infected with the new crown mutation virus and died; India's neighboring countries were hit one after another, and China also appeared Variant case imported from India.
Does this mean that the existing vaccines can no longer stop India's "Poison King"? Will India repeat the tragedy of Spanish flu , killing 20 million people in half a year? Can China defend its borders and preserve its hard-won anti-epidemic achievements?
Hello and welcome to the Cognitive Pyramid. Today, let's compare how terrible the two super viruses born in India were a hundred years ago and a hundred years later.
htmlOn May 3, Rajendra Kapila, an Indian-American infectious disease expert named Rajendra Kapila, passed away tragically. The reason why he went to India at the peak of the epidemic was to take care of his father-in-law who was infected with the new crown. Before leaving, Kapila specially injected two injections of the Pfizer vaccine, and the test has produced antibodies.
However, Kapila contracted Covid-19 in India and died soon after.
This incident has caused a great impact internationally, and people have questioned on social media: In the face of the mutated super virus in India, has the vaccine failed to some extent?
The American infectious disease scientist who died
So what happened to the mutated virus in India? Can it really make vaccines ineffective?
In October last year, India detected a double mutant strain . The so-called double mutation means that the virus has two mutations of and at the same time. This mutated virus, which spreads extremely fast, has now accounted for more than 70% of the confirmed cases in India, and has spread to more than 20 countries.
And last month, a researcher at India's National Institute of Biological Genomics announced that they had discovered a new strain -- a triple mutation, or a virus that has mutated three times.Let's put it this way, the more mutations a virus has, the more likely it is to find a way to break out of our immune system , what scientists call "escape mutations." "Escape mutation" is very dangerous, because when the virus itself changes to a certain extent, the vaccine may indeed lose its recognition of the virus. And those who have been vaccinated against and may still be infected.
In this regard, Professor Yang Zhanqiu from the Institute of Virology, Department of Medicine, Wuhan University, agrees. He said that if the variation of the mutated virus is very small, it will not affect the efficacy of the vaccine for the time being, but now, India mutates Viruses mutate at multiple sites. Over time, the range of mutation becomes larger and larger. When a new virus subtype evolves, existing vaccines may be completely ineffective.
Academician Li Lanjuan also said that when the virus mutation site can break through the new crown vaccine antibody, the protective effect of the vaccine will decrease.
Indian mutant virus
In this way, India's new crown "poison king" has been born, which is what the world is most worried about. Because of the Spanish flu 100 years ago, a mutated virus in India swept across the country in three months, killing 20 million people.
People walked, fell down suddenly, and died convulsingly; the city was full of dying people, and wild dogs were eating the dead bodies; Exhausted; corpses that were too late to be burned were pushed directly into rivers and lakes.
This kind of zombie apocalypse scene sounds a bit like India recently, but it was actually India 103 years ago.
The Spanish flu was the most costly plague in human history.The epidemic happened at the time of World War I , which was about to end, so most countries did not make detailed statistics. The most conservative estimates put the global death toll at more than 20 million, while contemporary experts have calculated that the death toll may reach 100 million.
Many people may already know it, but it is still a simple science, that is, the Spanish flu has nothing to do with Spain.
On March 4, 1918, the first recorded wave of the flu, , occurred in a military camp in Kansas, USA. At this time, the United States has participated in the World War I . As a result, the virus spread to Europe along with soldiers going to the battlefield. In April France , Spain in May, and the United Kingdom in June, outbreaks occurred one after another. Because other countries are under wartime news control, they only report good news and not bad news. News of this infectious disease pandemic will never be reported. Spain, on the other hand, is a neutral country, has not participated in the war, has no news control, and is an honest man who reports how many new cases have been added in the country, and the king is also sick. The news quickly spread all over the world, so the happy America gave the big hat to Spain. Hence the name Spanish flu.
100 years ago Fangcang shelter hospitals
Let's take an inventory of the number of people who died of Spanish flu in each continent. According to the most conservative statistics figures , North America died 1.07 million, of which 500,000 died in the United States; Europe 2.16 million; Africa died 1.35 million; South America a little less, only 320,000. So how much is Asia?
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Asia is 15.76 million.
And India alone contributes about 12.5 million people.And this is only the most conservative estimate. The real number of deaths, because the British colonial government at that time did not have the ability to make accurate statistics, so no one can say for sure.
Modern Indian medical experts estimate 17 million people, or 5% of the population at the time. And the famous American demographer, Kingsley Davis, based on the census data of India over the years, estimated that it was about 20 million people. What is the concept of
0 million? In the First World War, known as meat grinder , in four years, more than 16 million soldiers and civilians were killed by artillery fire. China fought a war for 14 years, and the total number of soldiers and civilians who died was about 35 million. And the 20 million in India were killed within half a year, or most of them were killed within three months!
At that time Ganges , the river was so full of corpses that it was blocked.
Cremation by the Ganges
So how did this disaster happen?
India is a British colony. In order to support the war of the suzerain, India sent 1.3 million Indian soldiers to participate in the war in Europe. In May 1918, World War I was drawing to a close, and Indian soldiers were preparing to go home. On the 29th, a ship carrying 900 Indian soldiers arrived at the port of Mumbai, India.
India's legal system is quite "advanced" under British rule. As early as 1897, India enacted the Infectious Diseases Act, which stipulates that the government has the right to quarantine ships and personnel, to isolate any suspected cases, and to destroy any property contaminated with germs.
But the law is enforced by humans. And the executive power of the Indian government has not been very good since ancient times.
When the ship was still sailing at sea, the military doctor on board had already discovered that 3 soldiers began to have fever and cough, and the symptoms were very similar to the European flu. After the ship docked, the military doctor left and reported the incident to Mumbai port health officials.By law, the officer was supposed to isolate the boat, but he did nothing but let it go.
You see, is it very similar to the inaction of the Indian government today?
In less than a month, about 600 dock workers, 300 or 400 mint workers in Mumbai, and a large number of employees from the police station, port authority, bank , and telegraph office have been hospitalized with fever one after another. The first wave of contagion has been completed.
During this period of time, Indian soldiers evacuated from Europe continued to enter the port of Mumbai. There is no doubt that some soldiers have been infected with the influenza virus in Europe. All the soldiers returned home by train after staying in Mumbai for a few days. In this way, a large number of infected people spread to every city and village in India.
6 21, 92 dead; by early July, 1600. It is worth mentioning that in those days, those who could afford western medicine in hospitals were all “in the system”. As for those poor people who had no money to see a doctor, such as porters, coachmen, and street beggars, they were not eligible to be counted. in the statistics.
But until this time, Mumbai has not taken any quarantine measures.
At this time, something strange happened. By August, the number of hospitalizations began to decline. It seems that this is really just a flu, and the infectious period has passed.
But, is that really the case?
History is a cycle. This new crown epidemic, India has also experienced a trough period. It seems that it is about to end, but it is actually brewing a super virus.
The Spanish flu also mutated during this time.This new variant has a very long incubation period. The infected person does not know that he is sick at all, but once the symptoms appear, it only takes 4 days from mild to death.
One month later, the most tragic killing in human history began. From the foothills of the Himalayas to the coast of Sri Lanka, the mutated Spanish flu virus has swept the entire South Asian continent. In less than three months, India's corpses were everywhere. According to incomplete statistics, among young adults aged 20-40, the mortality rate per 1,000 people is 62 for men and 79 for women.
Here to emphasize, I am not talking about the mortality rate of infected patients, but the mortality rate of the actual population . That is, for every thousand young people alive, 62 or 79 will die.
Even the founding father of India, Mahatma Gandhi, was not able to escape, he was also infected. But fortunately, Gandhi survived. It is hard to imagine how history would be rewritten if Gandhi also died in this epidemic.
A 22-year-old young poet lost his wife, daughter, cousin, cousin-in-law, nephew, uncle, and 6 tenant farmers and servants during the epidemic. But he was originally from a high caste family, but he could not find wood to hold a funeral for his relatives.
Here is a mention of Indian funeral customs. Hindus and Sikh believers practice cremation. During the epidemic, the number of dead suddenly increased sharply, breaking down the funeral system in India, because the firewood for burning the bodies was gone. So what to do?
is very simple, push the body of the deceased directly into the river.
Imagine the scene: more than 10 million corpses of virus-infected people, rotting or not yet rotting, floating in rivers of all sizes in India, especially the Ganges, which have endured the most.And these undisinfected corpses, carrying viruses, went down the river, contaminating everything along the way. The Indians along the coast, whether they are infected or not, they wash clothes, eat, bathe, drink water, and excrete in the same river. . . . . . .
Indians love to drink Ganges water
Is the scene in this picture familiar? I just saw it two days ago!
So, will this new crown epidemic repeat the tragedy that killed 20 million people from the Spanish flu a hundred years ago?
In India today, the population is 6 times that of 1918; the traffic conditions are much better than 100 years ago, and the speed of population movement is of course faster. However, the government's executive power has not seen much progress.
According to the current official figures released by India, the daily death toll in India is about 2,000. In our eyes, this is already a very terrifying figure, but in fact it is the result of the Indian government's best efforts to conceal it.
A few days ago, an Indian reporter exposed an incident. He counted several crematoriums in Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, India. A total of 187 corpses were burned that day, and at least 137 of them were confirmed to have died of the new crown. But that day, The official data is only 5 people.
37 people, 5 people! The number of deaths in the notification accounts for only 4% of the actual number of deaths. This is only a small place, so how serious will data flooding be in those populous states?
If we calculate according to the data of this small state, then the actual number of daily deaths in India may reach a terrifying 30,000!
To this end, modi recently met with the heads of major media outlets across the country, admonishing them not to publish "negative" stories about the pandemic.With the support of the Prime Minister, states have also taken action one after another. For example, in Maharashtra, where the doctor issued a warning at the beginning of the video, the local government issued a notice that no media group could pass the video unless "prior permission" was obtained from the state information department. Newspapers, websites or social media, publishing any news about the new coronavirus ; publishing news about the epidemic without approval will face up to six months in prison.
Just like this, Modi repeatedly used fake data, boasted that "India's new crown mortality rate is lower than that of the United States", and put money on his face.
Even WHO can't stand it anymore. On April 26, the chief scientist of the WHO, Sumiya, bluntly stated in an interview: The number reported by India is seriously underestimated, and the actual number of infections may be two higher than the official announcement. Thirty times!
Under such circumstances, Infectious disease scientists from all over the world are generally extremely pessimistic about India's future. If India is regarded as a virus petri dish, then India in 2021 will be more terrifying than India in 1918. With 1.3 billion Indians and 160 million Bangladeshis seamlessly connected, the population is not only large but dense. In 1918 Mumbai had a population of only 1.2 million; today Mumbai has a population of 21 million. Rapid urbanization has led to a large number of low-caste and untouchables living in slums with extremely poor living and sanitary conditions. As the RNA virus , the new coronavirus is very easy to mutate. When it encounters the slums of India, it is like a duck to water. It can let itself fly in it, reproduce and mutate freely, and finally raise a large number of viruses. Recognized variant species come out.
Indian monkeys chewed blood samples from patients with new crowns after snatching them, causing people to panic.
Moreover, 2021 is not 1918. Today's world is a global village, so the epidemic in India has already begun to spread to neighboring countries. The first to suffer is Nepal , which has very close contacts with people in India. As of May 4, the number of newly confirmed cases in Nepal has soared to 7,660 in a single day, and many of them are infected from India. mutated virus.
In addition, 12 countries around India, including Pakistan , Thailand , Myanmar , Vietnam , Cambodia , have experienced a surge in new cases in a single day.
And now it seems that there is no movement in Bangladesh , the situation is not optimistic, because he and India are seamlessly connected, personnel exchanges are closer, and the population density of Bangladesh is larger than India, and the economy is poorer and backward, The medical level is even worse.
Many of the above-mentioned countries are our neighbors, and many of them are friendly countries with close contacts.
Nepal epidemic spread
In fact, the mutated virus has entered China.
According to the Weekly Report of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, there are already 3 cases of the mutated virus entering from Nepal in my country.
The three confirmed patients are employees of the same company and have worked in India for many years. This time they returned to China via Nepal. Before getting on the plane, all three of them had done the nucleic acid test , and the results were all negative. From India to Nepal, to Chongqing , they all wore protective clothing, N95 masks, goggles and gloves throughout the trip. At the time of entry, the three people had normal body temperature and negative nucleic acid. Only chest CT showed infectious lesions, which was confirmed as a new crown case.After genome sequencing , it was determined that the virus infected by the three people was a mutant virus in India.
This is undoubtedly a warning to us, and we must not take it lightly in the face of the challenge of mutated viruses. So, is this a big test for China's prevention and control capabilities?
The border between China and India has the Himalayas protecting the country and our reliable frontier defense force , so it is unlikely that Indians will directly cross the border and enter our country. Then the focus of prevention and control is the major airports.
Academician Li Lanjuan is very confident in this regard. In her opinion, whether the epidemic can be prevented depends not on the severity of the virus, but on a country's public health prevention and control capabilities. She said, "In my opinion, this wave of epidemics will not have much impact on China, because China has always adopted strict prevention and control measures. Various provinces, cities, counties, and even communities in China have very strong Our coastal defense and border defenses have very good epidemic prevention measures, including airports, trains and other transportation fortresses, all have strict testing and isolation measures to ensure the safety of our country and people.”
She also said , Considering that the mutated virus directly infects the lungs, and the nasal swab will show false negatives, then Chinese citizens returning to China, even if they have no symptoms of fever and cough, should be closely isolated and observed after returning to China. In addition to nucleic acid testing, A chest CT scan is also required to determine whether the lungs are infected. At the same time, healthy people should also speed up the vaccination, so that the proportion of the population can reach the highest possible level.
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