The Cabinet Office of Japan announced the 2020 GDP increase and decrease figures on February 15. The fourth quarter increased by 12.7% compared with the previous quarter, but the annual growth rate decreased by 4.8% compared with 2019. This became the Lehman crisis triggered by the United States in 2009. After Japan’s economic growth rate plummeted by 5.7%, once again There has been a sharp decline.
has a few figures worth paying attention to. In 2008, Japan’s GDP was US$4.46 trillion. In 2009, affected by the Lehman crisis, it fell to US$4.25 trillion, but it quickly recovered to US$4.48 trillion in 2010. Affected by the new crown, the GDP in 2020 will definitely not reach the level of 5.45 trillion U.S. dollars in 2019, or even the 5.31 trillion U.S. dollars in 2018, and ultimately roughly the same as the 5.18 trillion U.S. dollars in 2017. The new crown epidemic made the economic gains gained in 2018 and 2019 disappear instantly.
A big reason is Japan's ineffective fight against the epidemic.
Source: According to IMF figures, drawing by the author.
The nature of Japan's failure to fight the epidemic
On February 14, 2021, Japan added 1,362 newly diagnosed patients with new coronary pneumonia, 1,435 new hospitalized patients, and 38 deaths. This number is much better than the number of 7771 diagnosed, 7979 hospitalized, and 59 dead on January 9, but the epidemic is still seriously affecting Japan's social economy.
Compared with East Asian countries, Japan has the worst situation in this epidemic. On February 14th, the "Asahi Shimbun" published patient statistics as follows: Japan confirmed 413,930 patients and died 6,866; China confirmed 100,000,559 people and died 4828; South Korea confirmed 83,199 people and died 1514 . Japan has a large number of prominent patients and a large number of deaths. Among the major East Asian countries, only Japan is facing huge medical pressure.
Why did Japan fail miserably in this epidemic?
When summarizing why Japan failed in the Pacific War, the late critic Kazuyoshi Hanto attributed the reason to "temporarily holding a buddha but baselessly maintaining a certain optimistic and exclusive public opinion."
After the arrival of the third wave of the epidemic, on November 26, 2020, the Jiji Press reported a speech in Tokyo by Japanese Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso. Aso said: “Wear masks, wash your hands frequently, and go to work at the wrong time. The Japanese have made various efforts. The whole world is praising Japan for its high level of citizenship (people’s moral awareness).” Listening, Aso means that Japan does not need to be nervous at all. The epidemic can be conquered by the people.
refused to acknowledge the experience of the neighboring countries in fighting the epidemic. The Japanese media never talked about the successful experience of China and South Korea in fighting the epidemic, and focused more attention on reporting the local shortcomings of other countries in the fight against the epidemic. It seems that Japan can solve everything by using the population. When medical conditions are already very urgent, it seems that Japan’s population can still hold the Tokyo Olympics on time. If someone filmed China’s anti-epidemic situation and sent it back to Japan, the TV station would not be willing to broadcast relevant content and would not accept other countries’ anti-epidemic methods.
Just like in the Japanese movie "Archimedes' War" released in 2019, the mathematician Na directly said, "The numbers don't lie!" The numbers tell Japan that the number of patients diagnosed with the new crown is the largest in East Asia and Japan, and the number of deaths from the new crown is also the largest. At the same time, the figures also tell Japan that the economy will experience a severe decline. These are not things that politicians can use to cover up the past by a “popular”.
Source: NHK
The economy in 2021 may be even more difficult
The Lehman crisis at the end of 2008 caused the Japanese economy to decline in 2009, but in 2010 Japan came out of the crisis. That time, it was only a financial problem in the United States, and it had little connection with the Japanese economy itself. However, the 2020 new crown epidemic is not only a difficult situation in the world economy, but also a serious consequence of the unfounded optimism of Japanese politicians and the exclusiveness of Japanese public opinion.
Japanese public opinion is using a considerable amount of space to hype the Sino-Japanese territorial issue. When discussing US-Japan relations, we must first throw a touchstone to see how the US government views the Diaoyu Islands issue; Japanese congressmen are taking the lead in preparing to land on the island and want to challenge Chinese public opinion. On the other hand, Japan has to rely on China economically. When analyzing the Japanese economy, NHK said: "In terms of exports, the growth rate was 11.1%, and there has been a substantial increase.Among them, the export of electronic parts and automobiles to China is increasing. "However, Japanese politics and public opinion have disrupted Sino-Japanese relations to a considerable extent, and the economic exchanges between the two countries are facing huge risks.
In an environment where it is difficult to promote economic development with China from a national perspective, leave it alone. Can Japan maintain a double-digit increase in trade with China in 2021? Can Japanese companies invest in equipment when the new crown epidemic is difficult to control and exports to other countries are more difficult to grow? It is estimated that the increase in this area will be It is difficult to achieve this in 2021. Economic development will become more and more difficult.
The ineffective fight against the epidemic has made Japan the only country in East Asia with extremely severe epidemics, which has caused a sharp decline in the Japanese economy. Whether the Tokyo Olympics in 2021 can be completed, seven Eighty percent of the Japanese people have no confidence. When Japan is experiencing upsets in all aspects of the epidemic, economy, and Olympics, the author is most worried about Japanese politicians and public opinion. A round of public opinion that is more disgusting with China is likely to be in 2021. _P1p
Japan’s severe economic downturn is not a good thing for Japan and East Asian countries.
Chen Yan
Deputy Editor-in-Chief of People’s China Magazine
Japanese Enterprise ( China) Executive Dean of the Research Institute
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