//Preface//
Australian dollar exchange rate plummeted,
Australian central bank announced that it would not raise interest rates ,
China's economic recovery has become the main reason!
However, experts predict that
At the same time the exchange rate is falling,
Australia's prices are rising rapidly,
Recent data shows that
Australia's inflation rate has far exceeded the increase in wages...
Australia's inflation rate has far exceeded the increase in wages...html l0#01:
exchange rate continued to plummet in one month,
has fallen to the lowest point in a year
Entering November, the Australian dollar exchange rate began to fall sharply, falling from the highest 1:4.828.
The lowest exchange rate yesterday reached 1:4.6094, which is also the lowest value in a year until yesterday.
(Picture source: Sina Finance)
The last time there was such a low exchange rate in May 2020.
At that time, Australia's exchange rate plummeted due to the lockdown, but after May, the Australian dollar exchange rate was no longer below 1:4.62.
However, this minimum exchange rate has only been maintained for a short period of time. After the Australian government announced the news that the border was further opened, the exchange rate began to rise slightly.
Until this morning, the Australian dollar exchange rate still showed a slight upward trend.
(Picture source: Sina Finance)
However, the momentum of the exchange rate rise has been maintained for a while. As of press time, the Australian dollar exchange rate has fallen again, hitting a new low this year, staying at the level of 4.6076.
(Picture source: Sina Finance)
It seems that in recent times, the Australian dollar exchange rate is likely to continue to decline overall.
#02:
China's economic recovery slowed down affecting the exchange rate,
Institutions predict that it may bottom out and rebound
According to the forecast of professional institutions, there are two main reasons why the Australian dollar exchange rate began to decline in November.
The first point is that in recent times, the economic recovery of China, the largest trade partner in Australia, has directly affected Australia's economic trend.
(Picture source: Internet)
In fact, it is not just Australia. China's economy slowed down, which has a huge impact on the economic status of the world, and the US dollar exchange rate has also fallen as a result.
, but the Australian dollar exchange rate fell even more.
The second point of influence on the Australian dollar exchange rate is the decision of the Australian Central Bank not to raise interest rates.
The Governor of the Australian Bank said that the latest data does not guarantee that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next year, and pointed out that it is reasonable not to raise interest rates before 2024.
implies that Australia's historically low interest rates will last for several years.
(Photo source: 9news)
Finally, he added that the central bank will not control housing prices by hiking interest rates.
Originally, after the inflation rate in Australia began to soar, all parties believed that the Australian Central Bank would make timely adjustments, but obviously, the words of the Australian Central Bank governor made everyone break this conjecture.
This statement also directly brought the Australian dollar into a downward mode.
Of course, the decline in the Australian dollar exchange rate may also have the impact of the Sino-US talks. After all, this talks make Australia's situation extremely embarrassing.
However, this situation will not last long. According to the latest news, China has been prepared to further use monetary means to promote economic growth.
In the recent quarterly report, economists from institutions such as Goldman Sachs , Macquarie , Citi , Nomura Securities and other institutions unanimously predict that China Central Bank will introduce monetary easing policies in the near future to support the sustained economic recovery.
If the forecast does not occur, the Australian dollar against the US dollar price will also bottom out and rebound in the near future, opening up room for correction of the price increase.
In other words, the Australian dollar exchange rate is about to bottom out, which is also in line with the current exchange rate development trend.
#03:
Australian prices continue to soar,
Inflation rate far exceeds wage increase
In sharp contrast to the falling exchange rate is Australia's continued soaring prices.
(Image source: News.com.au)
In terms of the most basic foods, the price of fresh fruits and vegetables has increased the most, reaching 7%.
Currently, the price of tomatoes in Coles has reached AUD 9.9 per kilogram, while Woolworths is AUD 8.9 per kilogram. The increase in
fruit is even more exaggerated. Data shows that as seasonal fruits, the price of grapes this year is about 40% higher than the same period last year.
The most expensive grapes on the shelf reached 20 AUD per kilogram!
The next highest increase was cooking oil, reaching 4%;
The price of long-term milk and beans rose by 3%;
while the increase of fresh milk and eggs was 2%.
Vie Deakin University recently analyzed the prices of about 7,000 Coles and Woolworths products over the past three years and found the impact of rising prices on wallets. Kathryn Backholer, associate professor at supermarkets, said the average price of cheapest dry pasta in supermarkets rose by 15%.
The price of one of the brands even rose by 37%, from AUD 1.90 to AUD 2.6.
(Image source: Yahoo News)
Australian coffee prices are also becoming more and more expensive, Daily Mail reports that the increase of each cup of coffee will reach AUD 1.
Australian cafe owners and baristas association have issued a warning that there will be an increase of 50 cents to 1 AUD.
This is not good news for Australians who cannot live without caffeine every day. They will spend up to $360 a year on coffee.
(Photo source: Daily Mail)
The main reason for the price increase of coffee is the sharp increase in freight and transportation costs, and freight prices almost doubled last year.
At the same time, due to severe drought, the production of coffee beans in Brazilian has also been affected. The cost of imported coffee beans has increased sharply as a result.
At present, some coffee shops have increased by 5%, and the price of coffee will also usher in a comprehensive increase in the future.
(Image source: The West Australian)
Australian oil prices have also frequently hit new highs:
The peak of travel around Christmas, and the whole of Australia's oil prices will continue to rise.
(Image source: global petrolprices)
plus the ridiculous freight increase, as shown in the figure below, you can begin to understand why the price rise is almost inevitable.
In the past, the cost of shipping a container to all over the world was more than 1,000 Australian dollars, but now the price is as high as an astonishing more than 10,000 Australian dollars, and the transportation cost has increased by 10 times.
(Image source: News.au)
How long will the soaring price situation in Australia last?
Some experts pointed out that with the reopening of borders and immigration returns, the current market supply and demand imbalance will make it worse. expects prices to reach a new peak around Christmas.
However, after Christmas, the rate of rise should slow down, but it does not mean that this round of price increases have ended.
While prices soar, Australians' wages are still "responding to changes in the face of constant changes."
(Image source: RBA)
RBA's latest data also shows that Australia's inflation rate is currently at 3%, while wages increase is only 1.7%.
In other words, everyone's salary increases at all cannot keep up with prices. If this continues, their wallet will only become more and more deflated... In daily life, everyone will feel the impact of soaring prices.
is not just Australia, but the world is currently facing the problem of inflation .
New Zealand previously released official data: New Zealand's CPI grew by 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of this year, significantly higher than 3.3% in the previous quarter and the market expected 4.2%. It is the fastest price increase in New Zealand in 10 years.
The United States data also shows that consumer prices are rising at the fastest pace in 10 years, with the latest inflation data of 5.4%, and the price increase is even stronger than Australia.
Faced with the increasingly serious inflation, the Australian central bank seems not to be ready to take action. All we can do is to feel helpless and feel sorry for the wallet...
Last
Australia exchange rate has been plummeting since November, and even a big plunge fell for many consecutive days.
Although the exchange rate rose slightly today, it then fell again.
However, Australia announced the opening of its borders, which is a major benefit to the local economy. Perhaps under the stimulation of this news, the Australian dollar exchange rate will rise significantly again in the future!
. For the people, what they hope most is that the market supply problem can be alleviated as soon as possible, and the government can also start to ensure the basic people's livelihood needs and restore prices to normal levels.
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