Recently, the World Bank , EU and Ukraine jointly released a report, which pointed out that the total amount of GDP in Ukraine in 2022 will shrink by about 35% compared with 2021, that is, from the original US$200 billion to only around 130 billion. However, compared with the original forecast that Ukraine's GDP will be directly cut in half in 2022, this shrinkage of 35% is actually quite good.
However, even so, it cannot be denied that Ukraine is basically on the verge of collapse, both politically, militaryly, economically, and socially. Let’s take a look at the population one by one. First, it is Ukraine’s population: Ukraine conducted a sample survey of the national population around 2020. After the investigation, it believed that it had 41 million people nationwide. Of course, these people did not include the population of Donetsk , Lugansk and Crimea . Therefore, in January 2022, before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, a relatively reliable data believed that Ukraine had about 38 million people in actual controlled population in the country.
However, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict, Ukrainians rushed to foreign countries like a tide. In just half a year, according to statistics from the United Nations Refugee Agency, at least 9.6 million Ukrainians have left the country but have not returned. In addition, there are more than 2 million people who own foreign passports or have dual nationality , and 2.5 million people go to Russia to hide. Together, there are currently more than 14 million Ukrainians who flee abroad alone; at the same time, don’t forget that Russia has won blockbusters in four Ukrainian states. The land, a referendum was held on it, became Russian territory. According to Russian statistics, Donetsk still has about 4 million people, Lugansk still has 2 million people, Zaporoze and Khlsson combined, which means that Russia has controlled Ukraine's seven or eight million people, and of course some of them have already run to Russia. Together, Ukraine's original population of 38 million may have lost about half, and the remaining one is only more than 20 million people.
This means that in terms of the ethnic composition that constitutes the country Ukraine alone, the Ukrainians have lost about half or even more than half of their population. What's more serious is that the population composition of these people who have gone out is also based on the sample survey conducted by the United Nations Refugee Agency. More than 80% of the Ukrainians who have gone out are women and children, and more than half of the refugees have educational experiences in colleges and universities, while about 80% of the refugees decided not to return to Ukraine in the near future, but instead to receive education and find employment opportunities in countries that have fled. what does that mean?
1. A considerable number of refugees who ran out of Ukraine are middle-class people who are the backbone of society. If a woman runs out, there will definitely be a man in Ukraine. As long as the woman can stay, the next step is to find a way to bring her husband abroad. This means that once the border is relaxed, the population loss in Ukraine will be terrible;
2. Refugees who ran out of Ukraine with children will receive education from their country rather than Ukraine's education, then It will soon lose its national and national identity with Ukraine. It will not take two or three generations, or even two generations. These Ukrainian refugees will soon become genuine locals, especially those who have received 2 million refugees, which have mastered more than 8 million Ukraine's population. The former is issuing a large number of Polish ID cards to Ukrainian refugees, while the latter is promoting Russian-based education in the controlled areas. As long as it takes just over a decade, these Ukrainians will forget their national identity and become Poles and Russians. The Ukrainian nation is likely to shrink extremely.
Of course, there is definitely a reason for so many Ukrainians to go abroad. The reason is that Ukraine's current economic situation is already a mess: I won't talk about the GDP problem. Ukraine's GDP was originally at the bottom of the crane in Europe. This year, the GDP has not been cut directly from 200 billion to 100 billion. In fact, it has been burned. I don't know how many of them are the GDP produced by milking under the strong blood transfusion of the West. First, agricultural production, Ukraine's agricultural production shrank severely this year. Ukraine's wheat production is expected to drop from 33 million tons to 19 million tons this year, and corn production dropped from 37 million tons to 26 million tons. The former shrank by 43%, while the latter shrank by about 30%, and it is possible to shrink further next year.
industrial production field, Ukraine's industrial production has been completely destroyed. Several major industrial bases in the country, Mariupol , as a steel industrial base, were taken down by the Russian army, North Donetsk, as a nitrogen chemical industrial base, was taken down by the Russian army, the largest nuclear power plant , Zaporo thermonuclear power plant , was taken down by the Russian army, and the aircraft was also shut down. Several important thermal power plants were not bombed by the Russian army, such as Harr The Kov Thermal Power Plant is captured by the Russian army, such as the New Lugansk Thermal Power Plant. The regional substation system in the country was blown up by the Russian army. As the main shipbuilding company, Nikolayev , Zaporoze Madsic, the main aviation industrial base, and Antonov, the largest aviation whole-machine manufacturing industry, were all bombed by the Russian army. In fact, it doesn’t matter whether these factories are bombed or not. Motorsic has almost never produced this year. As for Antonov, it has not even built an aircraft since 2016.
Ukraine can continue to operate, and there are basically only some armored repair factories that repair Soviet weapons. Moreover, large repair factories have been bombed by the Russian army. Only some small repair factories, such as the armored repair factories of Slaviyansk , can be used properly, and NATO equipment cannot be repaired. NATO equipment must be pulled to Estonian and other places for repair. This means that the remaining industries in Ukraine are basically either gangs, or supporting industries for gangs, and the national industrial foundation is basically done.
So, in the economic field, does Ukraine still have an economy to speak of now? At present, the benchmark interest rate of Ukrainian National Bank has reached 25%. To put it bluntly, this is no different from lending money. Under such conditions, there is no private credit investment and operation behavior, otherwise the investment income will not win interest, and you will lose money. Even if Ukraine forces the interest rate to increase, Ukraine's inflation rate this year has reached more than 30%, and a large number of Ukrainians are about to fall into poverty; Ukraine is now truly truly The only economic pillar is NATO's alms. In just half a year, NATO injected about 60 billion US dollars into Ukraine, of which about 30 billion US dollars is military aid, and economic aid, which means that NATO aid alone accounts for about half of Ukraine's total GDP, and military aid accounts for 1/4 of the total GDP. Military aid has almost assisted Ukraine's fiscal revenue in 2021 and assisted Ukraine's military expenditure for up to five years.
Therefore, the Ukraine we are seeing at present is such a freak: industrial and agricultural production is either destruction or severely damaged, the national economy is directly cut in half, the only economic activities are either war or revolve around war, the only industrial production capacity is a weapon of maintenance, the national military expenditure accounts for 24% of GDP, accounting for almost 100% of the government's fiscal revenue in 2021, and all of them are paid by NATO; at the same time, 38 million people in Ukraine fled or were incorporated into Russia, and more than 17 million people were brought to Russia, and the remaining 20 million people were pulled out by about 1 million strong men, 200,000 to 300,000 were killed and injured in the battle with the Russian army, of which 60,000 were killed, more than 40,000 were seriously injured, and more than 10,000 were estimated to be captured, and the mobilization rate has basically exceeded that of North Korea.
It is no exaggeration to say that the current Ukraine is a large barracks, one that cannot be self-sufficient, and it is all dependent on NATO forcing the burial of Russian cannons. Once NATO's support disappears, Ukraine will immediately collapse. What is the first army politics? North Korea is a fake first army politics. Ukraine is the real first army political system. You can sing a song of a thousand miles of horses. What future does Ukraine have in the future? Basically, it's four words, it's over.
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