my country's refined oil prices are adjusted according to international crude oil prices, and the price adjustment period is once every 10 working days. At present, a new round of domestic pricing cycle has begun. As the 23rd round of oil price adjustment this year, the specific price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on December 5, 2022. According to the second and third working days of this round of pricing statistics cycle, it is possible that the new round of oil price adjustment will show a sharp drop, because the cumulative reduction rate of the forecast far exceeds the red line of the price adjustment, which fully meets the standards of the reduction, and it is only a matter of time before the ninth decline this year.
In addition, according to the fourth working day of this round of pricing cycle, the reference crude oil change rate reached -7.50%, which shows that the cumulative decline of oil price forecast reached 380 yuan/ton, which continues to expand compared with the previous working day, prompting a significant increase in the possibility of a new round of oil price adjustment. After all, the latest expected decline is still far beyond the price adjustment red line. Referring to the previous few pricing working days, it has achieved "three consecutive declines", and is more than 330 yuan/ton compared with the (-50 yuan/ton) price adjustment red line stipulated in my country's " Oil Price Management Measures ", laying the foundation for this round of sharp drop in refined oil price adjustment, which means that the retail price limit of gasoline and diesel may also usher in a significant decline, and overall continues the downward trend of the previous round of price adjustment.
is converted into a liter price. The current oil price is expected to fall by 0.29 yuan/liter-0.34 yuan/liter, which is obviously still within the range of a sharp decline. If calculated based on the national average price, it is predicted that the price of No. 92 gasoline is reduced by 0.30 yuan/liter, the price of No. 95 gasoline is reduced by 0.31 yuan/liter, and the price of No. 0 diesel will also drop by 0.31 yuan/liter, which is significantly larger than the previous working day gasoline estimate. For ordinary private cars, adding a box of 50 liters of gasoline can cost 15 yuan less, and the refueling cost will be significantly reduced by then. At the same time, if a truck driver fills a box of 160 liters of diesel, it is initially predicted that it will save about 50 yuan, and the pressure on long-distance trucking will be moderately reduced again.
Secondly, according to the oil price forecast trend in the first four working days of this round of pricing cycle, it is expected that the price adjustment of No. 92 gasoline will drop sharply on December 5, and the prices of No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will also drop sharply. At that time, the retail price limit for gasoline and diesel in various parts of the country will generally be reduced, and completing the "ninth decline" this year is almost a foregone conclusion, only because since the start of the pricing statistics cycle, the change rate of crude oil reference main indicators of price adjustment reference has been deepened in the negative range. The latest oil price forecast has accumulated a decline of more than 350 yuan/ton mark, setting a new record since the second half of the year, which indicates that the decline in domestic refined oil price adjustment has basically become a foregone conclusion.
Furthermore, in the overseas market, under the influence of other negative factors such as Go Seven , EU and Australia plan to impose price limits on Russia's exports through sea routes starting from December 5, the market has slowed down supply concerns, and the slowdown in the global economy has exacerbated concerns about oil demand. Therefore, international oil prices have shown a downward trend and the overall cumulative decline is large.
On November 24, the market's concerns about supply eased, and international oil prices continued to fall slightly. Specifically, due to the US Thanksgiving Day, WTI New York crude oil closed with no settlement price; Brent crude oil fell 0.07 USD to 85.34 USD/barrel, and the overall downward trend continued, which shows that market negative factors are still in the dominant position.
To sum up, due to the fluctuation and downward trend of international oil prices, the negative factors in overseas markets still occupy the upper hand, the latest expected decline in domestic oil prices is still far beyond the red line of price adjustment. Since the cumulative decline of the fourth working day of the pricing cycle is 380 yuan/ton, the decline further expanded from the previous working day. It is estimated that the price adjustment of No. 92 gasoline on December 5 is more likely to fall sharply, and the prices of No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will also fall one after another. As for how to continue to observe in the later period.
