01. The United States may stop interest rate hikes
last night, U.S. stock turned up, which made many investors feel relieved. It seems that they would not return all the rise last week, which means that the stock market may continue to rebound.
If the US stock market stabilizes, the global financial market will also benefit. During this period, A shares have rebounded to a certain extent. Under such circumstances, the rebound in the future will be even greater.
also began to express optimism about the future of US stocks.
Analyst believes that CPI in October fell more than expected, and at the same time, the year-on-year increase in prices of commodities such as housing, clothing, medical care, and used cars has decreased, which is of great help to Federal 's next step in reducing interest rate hikes.
The most optimistic forecasters believe that December will be the last rate hike of the Federal Reserve.
To support this argument, the analyst further pointed out that the yield of US bond has dropped significantly recently, and it may form a continued downward trend, which is a great support factor for US stocks.
In addition, the volatility index also fell rapidly, from the previous 33 points to the current 23 points.
02, US stock
was affected by optimism. Last night, the three major US stock indexes rose simultaneously, with the Dow Jones rising 200 points.
However, judging from the increase , the three major indexes have not much increase. Nasdaq index only rose by one index point, an increase of 0.01%.
This is reflected in the industry sector or stock . The phenomenon that occurs is generally rising, but the increase is not high.
Among them, the utility sector rose by more than 2%, and the daily consumer goods and medical products rose by 1%, but oil and gas stocks generally fell.
Last night, Chinese stocks listed in the list of continued to decline, with Bilibili and NetEase falling by more than 5%, Alibaba falling 4%, Baidu falling 3%, and JD falling 2%.
New energy vehicle Xiaopeng, Ideal, and NIO fell 1%~3% respectively. When
closed, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell again, with a drop of 3%.
03, more views
Although analysts in the market began to show signs of optimism, Fed officials have expressed their opinions more towards hawkishness.
In this market, we often hear that an analyst’s prediction of the economy often has many personal subjectivity, but if multiple economists are surveyed at the same time, the results of this statistics should be much more objective.
Recently, Bloomberg visited 65 economists, and the results showed that the data were very pessimistic.
Overall, this group of economists' expectations for the future inflation of the United States have slightly increased compared to before.
On average, the PCE price index will reach 3.7% in the first half of next year, while in September and October, the forecast values at that time were significantly below 3.7%. This means that the rate of inflation in the United States has been much slower than previously expected.
On the other hand, economists have increased the probability of an upcoming recession in the United States, believing that the probability of the United States falling into a recession in the next year is 65%, while that was 60% just one month ago.
For the trend of US stocks, we still need to review the past historical data. At least so far, every time the US stock market gets out of the bear market in the past, it requires the Fed's monetary relaxation to support it.
Now, before seeing the Fed’s turn, it is too early to easily predict that the U.S. stock reversal . #US stock closing#PS: Early on the weekend morning, I will send you the latest overseas financial data analysis.
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