Data map: The United Nations "World Population Outlook 2022" report shows that the global population will reach 8 billion on November 15. Photo/Xinhua News Agency
According to Beijing News , the United Nations "World Population Outlook 2022" report shows that the global population will reach 8 billion on November 15, and will continue to grow in the next few decades, but the speed is expected to slow down and there are huge regional differences.
In this regard, Kanem, executive director of UNFPA, said that 8 billion people are an "important milestone" for humanity.
Increased population and decreased growth rate
After millions of years, the world's population only reached 1 billion by the beginning of the 19th century. Since then, the time required for the world's billion-level population to grow has continued to shorten: it exceeded 2 billion in the 1920s, exceeded 3 billion in 1960, exceeded 7 billion in 2011, and reached 8 billion in 11 years, a three-fold increase in a century.
Although the growth time of billions has been shortened, the population growth rate is declining.
"World Population Outlook 2022" data shows that in 1950, the world's population growth rate was 1.73%. Between 1962 and 1964, the growth rate exceeded 2.1%, and the world's population growth reached its peak and the growth rate reached its peak. Since then, many countries have adopted contraceptive and birth control measures, and the world population growth rate has dropped sharply, with only 0.82% in 2021.
1950, the global fertility rate was 5 children (that is, each woman gave birth to five children in her lifetime); it dropped to 4.5 children in the early 1970s; in 2021, the indicator dropped by half to only 2.3; it is expected to drop to a replacement level of 2.1 by 2050. Due to the continued decline in fertility, the annual growth rate of the world population may drop to around 0.5% by the middle of the 21st century.
At present, some European countries have shown negative population growth, and China is also facing the problem of low birth rate of . At the same time, Africa, especially the sub-Saharan region and some South Asian countries, has a relatively fast population growth rate, and the regional differences in population growth rates are huge.
In 2021, the population growth rate of Niger was as high as 3.7%, while Marshall Islands had negative population growth, with a growth rate of -3.3%. By 2050, more than half of the global new population will be concentrated in the Congo (DPRK), Egypt , Ethiopia , India, Nigeria , Pakistan , Philippines and Tanzania 8 countries.
According to the World Population Outlook 2022 report, India may replace China in 2023 and become the world's largest population country; by 2050, its population may reach 1.7 billion.
2022 ranked among the top ten countries in the world's population. Beijing News Shell Financial chart
Now the population growth depends on how old a person lives
The reason why the global population is still growing but the growth rate slows down is actually many aspects. The fertility rate above the
replacement level will inevitably lead to population growth. In addition, even if the fertility rate is lower than the replacement level, the population size will continue to grow for a period of time due to the influence of population inertia, just like the car will continue to slide forward for a while after pressing the brakes. The decrease in infant mortality rate of
also directly increases the total population; the decrease in maternal mortality rate of means that the number of people surviving to childbirth age increases, the increase in the size of the population that can give birth, and the population size will also increase.
In addition, the average life expectancy continues to be extended. The average life expectancy of the global population has increased from 46.5 years in 1950 to 71 years in 2021. In 2021, the average life expectancy of Monaco is as high as 85.9 years. By 2050, the global average life expectancy is expected to reach 77.2 years. Although the growth rate of birth population slows down, people live longer and longer. In the past, population growth mainly relies on more people's lives, and now population growth depends on how old a person lives.
Behind the above phenomena is the improvement of medical and health conditions, the improvement of living standards, the development of urbanization, and the intensification of population migration and mobility. For example, in 2007, the global urban population exceeded the rural population for the first time; the urbanization rate in 2022 was 57.05%; it is estimated that by 2050, 68.36% of the global population will live in cities.
However, these changes are a "double-edged sword" that is constantly changing people's marriage and fertility behavior while reducing fertility rates and extending average life expectancy.
The advancement of industrialization, urbanization and modernization, the improvement of women's education level, and the improvement of non-agricultural employment opportunities have made the tension between people, especially women, work and family responsibilities increasingly prominent. Coupled with the improvement of the social security system and the expansion of public services, people will consciously control the number of childbirth, and young people's willingness to get married and childbirth weakened, so the birth rate also declined.
In the future, more and more countries with negative population growth will be, and this may be the overall trend of global population development.
According to the UN "2022 World Population Outlook" report, the global population will reach 10.4 billion by 2100. Beijing News Shell Finance Map
The more people, the better, nor the fewer, the better
Population problem is the "big thing for the country". It not only concerns the living environment and health of the global population, but also concerns the long-term stability of the country and the sustainable development of the nation. As the population is growing, it cannot be simply generalized: the more people, the better, nor the fewer, the better.
11960, when the global population reached 3 billion, the international community was very anxious about the "population explosion"; in the "8 billion population era", people could view it more rationally and objectively, which also reflects that human society's understanding of population issues has surpassed the stage of focusing only on "digitals".
population size and its growth rate are not just an abstract number. Behind it are systematic topics in economic, political, social, cultural, family, personal and other aspects.
At present, the global population development is facing a more complex pattern than half a century ago, with both high fertility rates and extremely low fertility rates; a very young age structure and a relatively old age structure; a relatively low urbanized country and a highly urbanized country. These characteristics are unprecedented and require joint efforts from around the world to respond actively, promptly, scientifically, accurately and comprehensively.
For example, reduce fertility levels. The fertility, mortality and natural growth rates in Africa and some South Asian countries are still relatively high, which is not conducive to the improvement of a country's overall population quality, the rapid economic and social development, and the improvement of people's living standards. The international community and within the country need to provide more comprehensive and higher-quality reproductive health services to women of childbearing age to meet the contraceptive and birth control requirements of people with low childbearing intentions.
, for example, moderately improve fertility rates and resolve the risk of aging with less births. In 2022, the population aged 65 and above accounts for 10% of the global population and is expected to rise to 16% by 2050. Due to differences in fertility and life expectancy, an unprecedented age structure gap has emerged between regions: the average age of the sub-Saharan African population is only 17.6 years, while in Europe it is as high as 41.7 years.
Many countries face the problem of aging with less children. The increase in the proportion of elderly care and the increase in care demand will have an impact on social medical care and pension security systems.
To this end, we must not only respect the traditional value of childbirth and build a new type of marriage and childbirth culture, but also tolerate the diverse choices of childbirth and continuously optimize family-friendly and childbirth support policies.
For my country, we should also actively promote the new marriage and childbirth concept of "sweet love, happy marriage, harmonious family, and a better life", and strive to increase the fertility rate to the level of replacement, promote long-term balanced population development and sustainable development with resources and environment.
Another example is to improve the quality of the global population. The global population quality is uneven, and the scale and quality of talents vary. In the future, competition between countries will still be a competition for talents. We must not only tap talents from within, but also adjust talent standards, and attract and retain talents from other channels.
Written by/Yang Juhua (Professor of the Center for Population and Ethnic Development of Central University for Nationalities)
Edited by/Xu Qiuying
Proofreading/Liu Yue
