National Day is approaching, interest rate hike is shrouded in fog, gold price will fall first and then rise
Hello everyone, I am Du Jiasheng, a middle-aged man who likes to invest.
Take advantage of the weekend to analyze the subsequent price trend of gold for everyone. I have a little bit of my opinion and hope to give newbies some direction guidance.
Gold fell sharply last week, and after breaking the level of 1680, it weakened again, which is also in line with our previous article "Rate hikes are approaching, gold has fallen continuously, and it is expected to fall below 1640 in the future". It is also said that gold will break below 1640, which is obviously falling below 1640 last week.
, while crude oil also weakened, breaking 80, reaching 78. This was also mentioned in the weekend comments last week that falling below 81 to 78 is obviously in line with our ideas. Interested friends can go forward and look at my logical ideas.
So how will the subsequent price of gold rise and fall?
First of all, congratulations to our country in advance for its 73 years of establishment. Only with a country can we have a family. I wish the motherland a prosperous country and a continuous progress on the road to great rejuvenation. I wish you all a happy National Day and a happy National Day holiday.
Why is National Day ahead of schedule? Because based on my years of experience, around National Day, the market generally has large fluctuations and fluctuations. Although history will not repeat itself, it will always be surprisingly similar. So let’s take a look at what the price of gold has been like since 2011.
From the picture above, I found that the week before the National Day, gold either fell or rose slightly. Its rise and fall over the years during the National Day. Two weeks after the National Day, gold, except for some years, has shown an upward posture, and the amplitude is not small. So will the National Day in 2022 repeat the previous trend of gold prices? We will wait and see the week before National Day.
From a logical point of view, with the implementation of the 75 basis points interest rate hike in September, Fed showed a strong attitude of raising interest rates, causing gold to fall again and again, falling below the previous low point to support 1680. Then the Fed released another interest rate hike this year by 125 basis points, which caused market concerns. gold ETF also continued to sell and reduce holdings, and the gold market performed in a downward trend, plus global economy showed the risk of recession, so gold was suppressed, so there was still a decline in the short term, which was also in line with the idea of falling the week before the National Day and even falling during the National Day.
Then as the concerns about interest rate hikes are constantly digested and accepted, the market sentiment is stable. When the interest rate hikes are short-term in October, the gold price is very likely to stabilize. In addition, the Ukraine-Russia conflict escalates, and geopolitical risk stimulation. Risk aversion sentiment will support the rebound of gold prices, which just fits the two weeks after the National Day, and the gold price ushers in an upward trend. Therefore, whether from the historical price or the current logic of the news, it is expected that gold will fall further before and during the National Day holiday, and after the National Day holiday, it will rebound. This is the current idea. At the specific point of
, from a technical point, the weekly gold continues to close to a big negative, and broke the previous strong support of 1680, which undoubtedly once again brought momentum to the decline of gold. Since the 2070 closing double top fell, the weekly line fell in a wave-like structure. The previous round of decline was 1680 support, and the neckline position of the double top us ushered in a rebound, and the rebound is the fourth wave adjustment wave of the wave-like structure. Then on August 10, it fell from 1807 under pressure, or the fifth wave-like progress wave, once the perfect five The waves are falling, according to the price difference, the price of gold is expected to move around 1617-1600 US dollars per ounce, and 1617 also happens to be 0.500 of the Fibonacci dividing line, so the decline in the week before the National Day is expected to be around 1617-1600. According to Dow Theory, the rebound increase in one week to two weeks after the National Day is about 1670-1680, with a maximum of no more than 1698. That’s it. How to operate around the National Day, I think everyone has the answer, it’s nothing more than short first and then long.
short-term ideas, follow the short-term short near 1653-1663, look at 1617-1600, consider trying short and long operations in the 1617-1600 range, pay attention to controlling risks.
The above suggestions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading. Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
Due to the length of the article, I won’t explain it much. If you don’t understand anything, please leave a message.
Sometimes you only need to seize one wave of opportunities, which is enough, National Day may be a good opportunity. Imagine that others are gathering for National Day holidays, and they are traffic jams on the highway. They are very upset. They finally come to the scenic spot, but there is a crowd of people, and there is no chance to breathe. Not only are you upset, they also spend money. You are lying comfortably at home, seizing a wave of National Day market, and getting wealth in your pocket. You don’t have to work so hard this year. Is it very happy to think about it? So opportunities are always left to those who are prepared. Whether you can seize them depends on yourself.
There is only one way that cannot be chosen, that is the path to give up, and there is only one way that cannot be rejected, that is the path to persist. Only by not being confused, firmly thinking and sticking to oneself can one be the end. Du Jiasheng has always been in the market. If you have been confused in the trading market, maybe you can find the answer in Du Jiasheng Finance!
