Iron ore | Steel | Coke | Nickel and Stainless Steel | Copper | Zinc | Aluminum | Precious Metals | Asphalt | Crude Oil | Fuel Oil | Pulp | Natural Rubber and No. 20 Glue | Plastics | Methanol | Urea | Steam Coal | PVC | PTA | PP | PF | MEG | EB
Shen Enxian
Investment consulting business certificate number: Z0013972
Iron ore
[Trading Strategy]
Last night, the data from the Steel Union showed that the inventory of 45 ports was +299,400 tons, the port was -187,700 tons, and the number of ships pressed by the port +3. The domestic black system opened low and closed low in the night market and fluctuated narrowly within . The profits of steel mills in the short term were low, and the raw materials were highly suppressed by the profits of steel mills. However, during the resumption cycle, the overall trend of iron ore was stronger than that of finished materials. In the short term, the macro and steel trends of domestic and foreign countries are still dominant, so pay attention to the rhythm of steel mills' resumption; the medium and long-term real estate has not bottomed out, iron ore is still short distribution.
[Related Price]
Qingdao Port pb powder spot 770 (+14), the best delivery products are card powder, discount standard product warehouse receipt 829, discount factory warehouse warehouse receipt 817, main contract The factory base was 94
[Important information]
1. On September 15, the national main iron ore transactions were 1.01 million tons, an increase of 10% month-on-month; 237 mainstream traders sold 144,600 tons, an increase of 28.5% month-on-month.
2. This week, the total inventory of imported sintered powder from 114 steel mills in the new caliber was 27.8791 million tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons month-on-month; the average iron cost of steel mills excluding tax was 2,863 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton month-on-month. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
Steel
[Trading Strategy]
Steel Union announced that the data of five large materials and small samples in this issue will increase production and accumulate the database table. The output of blast furnaces will increase slightly, and the start of electric furnaces will drop slightly. By variety, the thread output has slightly decreased, and the factory warehouses and warehouses have begun to accumulate warehouses, mainly affected by the typhoon and the holidays; in terms of hot coil , the output has rebounded slightly. The threads on the demand side remained around -15% year-on-year, and there was no trend beyond expectations. The cement shipment volume at the building materials end has declined, cement starts to recover, and concrete shipments have rebounded slightly. In terms of operation, the threaded table needs to be maintained at a short-term year-on-year period of no less than -20% and it is not advisable to chase short. Wait for further accumulation of industrial contradictions and choose directions. On the macro level, the US CPI rose by 8.3% year-on-year, higher than the market's expectations of 8.1%. The market expects the probability of raising interest rates in September strengthened, which affected the commodity and US stocks dived . Domestic social financing data in August still demonstrated that residents lack confidence in buying a house.
unilateral: short-term expected to oscillate mainly, mid-line rebound at high altitude far-moon thread hot coil, risk: demand rebounds beyond expectations, output declines beyond expectations, etc.
arbitrage: long far-month coil screw difference strategy hold, risk points: hot coil output increases beyond expectations, electric furnace resumption is less than expected, etc.
[spot price]
spot: online price Shanghai Zhongtian thread 3940 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye 4060 (-), Shanghai Bengang hot coil 3910 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot coil 3980 (+10).
[Important Information]
1. This week, the average cost of 40 independent arc furnace construction steel mills was 4,245 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton from last week. The average profit was -176 yuan/ton, and the profit of Valley Electricity was -71 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton from last week.
2. According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in early September 2022, the average daily crude steel output of key steel enterprises was 2.0982 million tons, an increase of by 43.26% month-on-month; the steel inventory was 17.0645 million tons, an increase of 1.1215 million tons over the previous ten-day (that is, the end of last month), an increase of 7.03%.
, Qingdao : Provision moderate adjustments and optimizations to the current real estate-related policies, and second-hand housing will no longer be restricted.
Jinan has made further adjustments to the purchase restrictions in the real estate market. In addition to continuing to implement purchase restrictions on lixia District and shizhong District within the Second Ring Road, there will be no purchase restrictions in other areas. This policy will be implemented from September 16.
(The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market.)
Coking coal coke
【 Trading Strategy]
Coal coke fluctuated significantly last night. Ganglian data showed that double-coke inventory accumulated, mainly accumulated in the downstream, upstream inventory was sold. Fenwei data showed that coking coal mine coke coal inventory was sold for 7 consecutive weeks, and downstream inventory accumulation was mainly driven by the replenishment of the inventory before the holiday. Last night, Ganglian data showed that molten iron was 2.3802 million tons, an increase of 24,700 tons month-on-month. Affected by the control of thermal coal , and the second round of spot price reduction in coke has not been mentioned for a long time, the valuation of double-focus leads the rise in the black series. Moreover, major meeting nodes on holidays such as National Day and important meetings have arrived. The downstream considers transportation efficiency and other issues, and the expectation of replenishing raw materials is sufficient. In addition, the strict safety supervision of coal mines in the origin are considered, etc., and the trend of raw materials is relatively strong. In the short term, the macro and steel trends at home and abroad are still dominant, and the short term coal coke range fluctuates, pay attention to the pace of steel mill replenishment; in the medium and long term real estate has not bottomed out, the double-focus is still short distribution.
[Related Price]
Spot: Rizhao and Qingdao Port coke spot trade cash exchange out of the warehouse: quasi-first-level coke closing price 2550, and the estimated coke warehouse receipt is about 2741-2776 yuan/ton. The spot coke in Mongolia in Tangshan, Hebei is 2,127 yuan, and a single Mongolian coal warehouse receipt is about 2,127 yuan.
[Important Information]
1, [Fenwei Information] Coking coal news in the production area, due to the recent increase in downstream demands, and the local coal mine production has not returned to normal in the early stage of production, the high-sulfur and thin coal resources in Lishi area of Luliang, Shanxi are relatively tight. Today, the quotation of high-sulfur and thin coal of some local coal companies in high-sulfur and thin coal (S2.7 A8.5 G55) has been raised by 50 yuan/ton to the current exchange rate of 1,800 yuan/ton.
2, [Fenwei Information] Port Mongolian Coal News, recently, due to port traders rushing to purchase weathered coal, short-term freight rates have been continuously pushed up. Today, the short-term freight rates are reported to be around 330 yuan/ton, rebounding from the previous low point of 250 yuan/ton. The short-term freight rates have risen strongly, and the cost support of Mongolian Wu raw coal has increased, leading to a rebound in Mongolian Wu raw coal prices and a decline in port inventory. Today, some resources at the port rose to around 1,480 yuan/ton, and rebounded from a low point of 50-80 yuan/ton. In the short term, downstream companies have a certain demand for replenishment, and the price of Mongolian Wu at port still has expectations of continuing to rise. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market.)
3 Wang Yingying
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0014913
nickel and stainless steel
U.S. retail data is better than expected, interest rate meeting is approaching, and most basic non-ferrous metals have fallen, and the Shanghai Nickel Index reduced its position by 21,000 lots to 125,000 lots, a significant decline. In the domestic spot market, transactions are relatively flat, and the premiums have been falling continuously. The market prices of various industrial chains have relatively stable compared with the recent high fluctuations. The domestic medium and high nickel iron price is 1350-1370 yuan/nickel (including tax in the factory), and nickel sulfate is 38,000-39,000 yuan/ton to maintain stability. The 30,000-ton high-ice nickel nickel sulfate production line of a factory in Guizhou began to debug the 30,000-ton phase of the first phase of the production line. Once it successfully reaches production, it will alleviate the tight supply of nickel sulfate. fundamentals weakness has not changed, but the recent acceleration of LME destocking has boosted the market significantly. Today, 582 tons of destocking have been removed. In addition, the spot discount has contracted with the rise in the market price since the beginning of the week, and there are still risks in the market. Overall, the medium-term thinking is still relatively short, and the risks caused by short-term low inventory have always existed.
Shanghai stainless steel reduced its position and fell, the spot market sentiment faded, merchants from all sides operated on demand, and downstream purchases were priced to look for goods. Yesterday, 304 private four-foot cold-rolled wool base was 16,700-17,100 yuan/ton; private hot-rolled five-foot large plate wool base was 16,700-16,900 yuan/ton. But inventory continued to decline this week. According to Mysteel data, the total social inventory of stainless steel in the mainstream market in the country was 714,300 tons, a week-on-month decrease of 3.28% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.38%.In terms of 300 series, the total stainless steel inventory was 353,400 tons, a week-on-month decrease of 4.44% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.61%. Spot sentiment fell, while inventory continued to decline. The demand for replenishment of inventory released in the early stage gradually weakened, terminal repairs were limited, and holders mainly sold goods at high prices. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Copper
London copper fell yesterday. On the macro side, retail sales in the United States unexpectedly rebounded in August, up 0.3% from the previous month, as Americans bought more motor vehicles and increased the number of dining outs while gasoline prices fell, and were also boosted by back-to-school shopping. In terms of fundamentals, we recently learned that cable and copper rod enterprises have good consumption, and demand for power grids, photovoltaics, new energy, government projects, etc. is relatively good, but demand for real estate, home appliances, etc. involving personal consumption is weak, and consumption in the board and belt industry has dropped by about 30%. From the perspective of the terminal, domestic consumption is average. However, since scrap copper is difficult to buy now, the consumption of fine copper is better, especially the consumption of fine copper rods is very popular. However, at around 65,000, the scrap copper supply will be released, forming a substitute for refined copper consumption. There is still interference on the supply side, and the typhoon has landed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai again, and the import of fine copper is hindered. In addition, due to the epidemic, production of smelters is not smooth, and the Hubei smelter delays production has increased the market's concerns about supply. In terms of price, the market is currently focusing on the interest rate hike in September. The interest rate hike of more than 75 basis points has been basically confirmed, and there is still room for copper prices to fall. However, due to various supply problems and the arrival of the downstream reserve period, the downstream purchasing sentiment will arise during the decline of copper prices. Since yesterday, downstream entry has been launched, paying attention to the support of industrial buying to copper prices. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
zinc
last night Shanghai zinc opened low and then fluctuated and consolidated, maintaining its weakness. The main contract of Shanghai zinc 2210 fell 150 yuan to 24,655 yuan/ton. At present, zinc fundamentals are not good, and the macro sentiment and micro spot trading atmosphere are relatively weak. On the macro side, the US retail data rose in August, higher than expected, and the railway strike incident was resolved, but non-US regions, economic data such as Europe and Australia performed poorly. The trade deficit in the Yuan region is high, currency depreciation, Australian inflation is high, Chinese and Russian leaders meet, and the RMB depreciates sharply; at the micro level, inventory has remained low recently and has not further destocking , and the spot premium has fallen, but in the context of low inventory, strong cost and weak supply, both supply and demand are weak, and prices are difficult to get out of the unilateral market. The unilateral price is expected to maintain wide fluctuations (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry)
3 aluminum
Aluminum
6 Yunnan production cut scale expands Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and strengthened
[Market Analysis]
Last night, Shanghai aluminum continued to maintain its strength. After opened , it increased its position and rose up. The main contract increased its position by 10,264 lots to 19,045. Stimulated by the large-scale production cut of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan, it once again stood at a height of 19,000. At present, the entire macro atmosphere is weak, and it is not easy to close red when non-ferrous is generally green. Due to the strong logic on the supply side, aluminum has become a multi-equipped variety within non-ferrous.On the macro side, the US retail data rose in August, higher than expected, and the railway strike was resolved, but non-US regions, Europe and Australia and other economic data performed poorly, the euro zone trade deficit was high, currency depreciation, Australian inflation was high, Chinese and Russian leaders met, and the RMB depreciated sharply; in terms of supply, Yunnan region once again cut production on a large scale, and market rumors of a certain aluminum plant cutting production by 30%, and the specific announcement of listed companies shall prevail, which is expected to affect the production capacity of 1.3 million to 1.5 million tons; in terms of spot demand, the aluminum ingot market was driven by sentiment, and the transaction was hot, Foshan region's price to the south turned high, Wuxi region's price to Yangtze River closed flat, aluminum rod market transactions were average;
[Trading Strategy]
One-sided: Aluminum has improved fundamentals after production cuts, high energy and supply contraction provide price bottom support, but the current weak demand and weak macroscopic reality make the height limited. Overall, it is not to chase highs and go long on lows (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry)
precious metals
Yesterday, precious metals prices fluctuated downward. London gold expanded its decline in the evening, falling below $1,660 at one point, hitting a new low since April 2020, and once pulled back about $38 at a time. It is currently consolidating around 1,660 at ; London silver fell below the $19 mark as gold fell, and finally closed above 19, but it has fallen below the 19 line again and fluctuated nearby. Although gold hit a new low in the foreign market, the internal received the exchange rate and exchange rate and impacted the decline below the foreign market. USD index fluctuated narrowly above 109 and eventually closed slightly higher; the 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated upward, closing at 3.449%. The yield curve of the 5-year-30-year Treasury bond inverted reached 19 basis points, the highest level since 2000. The yield of the 5-year inflation-protected bond in the United States rose above 1.0%. In terms of
data, after the release of data on US CPI, retail sales and other data this week, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model lowered its expectations for the third quarter GDP growth rate of the United States to 0.5%, lower than the 1.3% expectation on September 9. Freddie Mac data shows that the U.S. 30-year mortgage/mortgage rate rose to 6.02%, a new high since November 2008, and 5.89% a week ago. Financing costs rose sharply in 2022, slowing sales and slowing down housing prices growth rate . The U.S. retail sales data in August recorded 0.3%, better than expected 0%, and the previous value was revised to -0.04%. The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. to September 10 recorded 213,000, lower than expected 226,000, the fifth consecutive week of decline; the U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index in September recorded -9.9, the lowest since December 2020, with an expectation of 2.8, and the previous value was 6.2; the U.S. New York Fed Manufacturing Index in September recorded -1.5, expectation of -13, and the previous value was -31.3. After the data was released, London gold rebounded after a decline, rebounding to above $1,690 per ounce, but then expanded its decline again.
As the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is approaching, precious metal prices continue to be under pressure, and it is expected that there will always be some pressure above before the interest rate meeting. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market)
Songyang
Investment Consulting Practice Certificate Number: Z0000551html l2
Asphalt
[Traffic Review]
BU12 closed at night at 3640 points (-1.33%).
[Important Information]
In terms of spot, the weak decline in international crude oil may have aggravated the market's forward bearish sentiment. Although the current urgent need has certain support for low-priced resources, high output has led to obvious competition among brands' resources, and it is difficult to achieve a balanced production and sales overall. (Longzhong) Currently Shandong asphalt spot 4240-4570, East China region 4600-4850, South China region 4780-4900.
refined oil benchmark price: Shandong local refining 92# gasoline-33 to 9073, 0# diesel-19 to 8694.
[Trading Strategy]
Recently, the supply of asphalt has rebounded rapidly, and the demand side is relatively average due to negative factors such as weather and funds. Due to the lack of optimistic expectations for demand in the fourth quarter, and there is still huge uncertainty in oil prices, speculative demand for asphalt has been compressed to a low level, and spot prices are mostly based on urgent demand, resulting in the spot price volatility in the polar state. After the overnight oil price drop, asphalt futures weakened, but the decline was lower than that of crude oil, and the market cracking was passively repaired. The current price center of asphalt was mainly affected by oil prices. The price of the BU12 contract refers to the wide range of fluctuations in the range of 3600-3900. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Crude oil
[Taiwan Review]
Crude oil settlement price: NYMEX crude oil futures 10 contract 85.10 fell 3.38 USD/barrel or 3.82%; ICE Brent Oil Futures 11 contract 90.84 fell 3.26 USD/barrel or 3.46%. China's main contract for INE crude oil futures 2211 rose 19.8 to 664.8 yuan/barrel, and rose 0.7 to 665.5 yuan/barrel in the night trading. Brent's first-time price spread +0.24 to 1.20 US dollars per barrel.
[Important Information]
In terms of supply and demand, the US Department of Energy said that the plan to supplement strategic oil reserve does not include a price trigger mechanism, and it will not be implemented after fiscal year 2023. This statement rejects the possibility that the market would "the United States will replenish strategic inventory when oil prices fall below $80." Preliminary data for July statistics by OPEC showed that the total OECD commercial oil inventories were 2.699 billion barrels, an increase of 18.1 million barrels from June, 148 million barrels lower than the same period last year, 271 million barrels lower than the average in the past five years and 271 million barrels lower than the average from 2015 to 2019. Among them, crude oil inventories increased by 6.4 million barrels compared with June, while refined oil inventories increased by 11.7 million barrels.
Macro, U.S. retail sales rebounded unexpectedly in August, up 0.3% from the previous month. Import prices fell for the second consecutive month in August as commodity prices fell and the dollar strengthened. The number of initial unemployment benefits fell to its lowest level since the end of May in the week ended September 10. Rice, spokesman for International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that downside risks continue to dominate the global economic outlook, and some countries are expected to fall into recession in 2023, but it is too early to say whether there will be a widespread global recession.
[Trading Strategy]
Overnight oil prices fell sharply with US stocks, and the structure of crude oil has strengthened slightly in recent months, reflecting that the current decline is mainly driven by the market's pessimistic expectations of the forward economic recession, and the current situation of crude oil supply and demand has not completely deteriorated. The current oil price is still denominated for the hiatus of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hiatus in September, and the macro risk aversion sentiment has increased. From the perspective of supply and demand, as the Iraqi nuclear negotiations have been delayed, the supply lacks the possibility of explosive growth in the fourth quarter, and there is support below oil prices. Oil prices maintain a wide fluctuation pattern in the short term. Brent's main force refers to the 85-100 US dollar range. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
fuel oil
[Taiwan Review]
FU01 contract closed at night at 2834 points (-0.63%).
LU11 contract closed at 4527 points (-4.99%) in the night trading.
Singapore market, the night market Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap monthly difference stabilized at US$11.25/ton, the high-sulfur monthly difference strengthened slightly to -1.25/ton, the domestic and foreign price difference of FU01 is 18.5/ton, and the domestic and foreign price difference of LU11 is 10/ton.
[Important Information]
As of the week ending September 14, Singapore's fuel oil inventory was 19419kb, a decrease of 519kb. Medium distillate oil stocks are 8504kb, an increase of 291kb. Light distillate oil stocks are 15589kb, a decrease of 67kb.
[Trading Strategy]
Recently, under the influence of China's upcoming release of a new round of refined oil export quotas, overseas diesel cracking has dropped sharply, and the low-sulfur valuation has weakened. At the same time, the decline in oil prices has also dragged down fuel oil cost support. The recent volatility of the LU disk is slightly higher than that of crude oil, and the short-term unilateral fluctuations show wide fluctuations. Before winter comes, low sulfur has peak season expectations and is supported by high hydrogenation costs, and its performance is expected to be stronger than high sulfur. (The above views are for reference only and will not be used as a basis for entering the market)
pulp
[Review of the previous day]
futures market : Run at a high level. The main SP contract of 01 closed at 6804 points, down -26 points or -0.38%.
Spot wood pulp market: The imported needle pulp market in South China is still relatively limited in arrival, and downstream on-demand inquiries are inquired. The reference for the quotation of crystal tax-inclusive is 5,000 yuan/ton, and the quotation of Kunhe is 5,350-5,400 yuan/ton. Imported conifer slurry has limited spot circulation in the market, and downstream on-demand inquiries are inquired. A small amount of silver stars is quoted at about 7,550 yuan/ton, and a small amount of Beimu is quoted at 7,600 yuan/ton. ( Zhuochuang Information )
Spot cultural paper: The orders for double tape paper market in Linyi, Shandong are limited, and the price remains stable in the short term. The reference price of double tapered paper flat plate with tax-inclusive cash of 5700 yuan/ton. The orders in the double tape market in Shanghai are average and the prices are sorted out. Currently, the market price of shipments with tax inclusive of dealers: 70-120g Huajin double tape paper with tax inclusive of cash reference price of 6100-6200 yuan/ton. (Zhuochuang Information)
[Important Information]
quoted the Industry and Commerce Times: The mainland papermaking market continued to be sluggish, and Rongcheng announced August revenue of 4.42 billion yuan ( New Taiwan Dollar , the same below), a monthly increase of +18.4%, but a recession of -18.5% compared with the same period last year; the monthly loss of 226 million yuan was 226 million yuan, the second consecutive month of loss. Rongcheng's revenue in the first eight months was 34.92 billion yuan, an annual decrease of -1.8%, and the cumulative annual revenue growth rate turned from positive to negative; the self-financing pre-tax surplus in the first eight months was 28.7 million yuan. The prosperity of the papermaking market on both sides of the Taiwan Strait this year is not as good as last year. Rongcheng's net profit after tax in the first half of the year was 301 million yuan, a decrease of -78.8% from the same period last year, but it still maintains a small profit pattern; the epidemic lockdown in the mainland has repeatedly overturned, the overall economy has suffered a significant blow, and the industrial and paper industry has been affected. Rongcheng almost ate the profits of the first half of the year in two months.
[Trading Strategy]
Social inventory destocking weekly month-on-month, among which Baoding region, Rizhao Port, Shanghai Port , Gaolan Port, and Nansha Port inventory destocking narrowly. The main SP01 contract is short in a small amount, and it is advisable to set stop loss at the recent high of 6860 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
natural rubber and No. 20 rubber
[Review of the previous day]
RU Related: RU main force 01 contract closed at 13,000 points, up +95 points or +0.74%; Japan's main force 02 contract closed at 226.4 points, up +2.2 points or +0.98%. As of 12:00 on the day before yesterday, Yunnan WF closed at 12,000-12,300 yuan/ton, the second landmark closed at 11,000-11,300 yuan/ton, Thailand cigarette sheets closed at 14,300-14,500 yuan/ton, and Vietnam 3L closed at 11,600-11,950 yuan/ton.
NR related: NR main 11 contract closed at 9630 points, up +40 points or +0.42%; Singapore's main TF11 contract closed at 134.2 points, up +1.8 points or +1.36%. As of 18:00 the day before yesterday, the price of USD rubber in Qingdao bonded zone was narrowly adjusted. The cargo of cigarettes closed at US$1530-1550/ton, the spot in the Thai standard area closed at US$1370-1390/ton, the spot in the printed standard or near-port cargo of ships closed at US$1410-1440/ton, and the mixed spot or near-port cargo of ships closed at US$1370-1385/ton.
synthetic glue related: North China Butane 1502 quoted 11650-11750 yuan/ton. Sinopec's North China Qilu Shunding price was 12,600 yuan/ton. The price of East China butadiene is 9,800-9,900 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
quoted the Malaysian Bureau of Statistics: In July 2022, the export volume of daily rubber increased by +10.5% year-on-year to 53,800 tons, a decrease of -8.4% month-on-month. Among them, 48.1% were exported to China, while the others were 6.4%, the United States was 4.2%, Finland was 3.8%, and Pakistan was 3%. In July, the import volume of Malaysia's 4-day glue was 68,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -22.6% and a month-on-month decrease of -22.2%. Standard rubber, concentrated latex, and other natural rubbers in shape are the main import categories, and their main import sources are Thailand, Côte d'Ivoire, the Philippines, Myanmar, etc. In July, the total production of natural rubber can be monitored was 38,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of -21.8% and a month-on-month increase of +21.2%. Among them, the small garden planting output accounts for 88.5%, and the state-owned planting output accounts for 11.5%. In July, Malaysia's natural rubber inventory was 224,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -20.1% and a year-on-year decrease of -20%. Among them, 91.8% of the inventory is concentrated in the hands of rubber processors, downstream terminal inventory accounts for 8.2%, and large planters account for 0.1%.
[Trading Strategy]
Today is Malaysia Day, and the market is closed locally. Thailand's Meteorological Department has released a trailer of heavy rain across the country in the next few days. The operating rate of domestic all-steel tire production lines closed at 50.4%, and the operating rate of semi-steel tire production lines closed at 56.0%. Affected by the short holiday, the overall year-on-year production cut was -4.3%, ending the marginal increase in production for three consecutive weeks. For the RU01 contract, you can sell 13,500-point call options above; for the long positions in the NR11 contract, it is advisable to set a stop loss at the recent low of 9,500 points. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
plastic
market review:
plastic fell yesterday, L2301 closed at 8089 points, down 0.64% or 52 points, and L2301 closed at 8066 points, down 0.28% or 23 points.
Important information:
1) This week's PE start load was 80.17%, up 0.46 percentage points from last week. This week, the domestic polypropylene plant start-up load was 82.44%, up 0.39 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.69 percentage points from the same period last year.
2) Most of the downstream PE starts to rise this week. The start of agricultural films rose by 2 percentage points to 45%, the start of packaging has risen by 1 percentage point to 62%, the start of single wire has fallen by 1 percentage point to 50%, the start of hollow films has risen by 1 percentage point to 51%, and the start of pipes has risen by 3 percentage points to 41%. The start of other industries has been temporarily stable. Currently, the mainstream start of construction in downstream industries is 41%-62%.
Trading strategy:
Plastic starts slightly this week, downstream starts on demand side rebounded significantly, current PE inventory is low, September is in the traditional peak season of demand, and in a critical period of policy, demand is still the core point of trading, the short-term peak season has been confirmed to be somewhat different, macro atmosphere is biased, and short-term price fluctuations. In the medium term, we face the start of new equipment + increase in imports + decrease in exports, and short selling at highs. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)
methanol
[Trading Strategy]
The coal mine production in the main production area is normal, the daily output in Hubei has reached a normal level of more than 2.6 million tons, and the coal mine operating rate in Yulin area is above 78%. Hubei City has mostly fulfilled its long-term contracts, with fewer market transactions, and coal prices mainly focus on stability; Yulin area has good demand for coal foam, prices continue to rise slightly, and the supply of block coal is abundant, and prices stabilize; Jinzhong area environmental inspections restrict supply, but the price stabilizes at a high level, and the price of chemical coal is around 970-1175 yuan/ton. With the rise in the spot price of methanol in the mainland, the losses of coal-to-methanol production narrowed significantly, and coal-to-methanol production in Inner Mongolia basically turned losses into profits. Shaanxi was located near the break-even line, and Jinzhong region narrowed to 150 yuan/ton. As coal-to-profit profits improved significantly, the recovery of methanol operating rate will accelerate, and domestic supply will gradually be loose. In terms of demand, both traditional demand and MTO operating rates have increased month-on-month, but with the rapid rise in spot prices of methanol, traditional profit and MTO profit have been compressed again, and it is expected that the operating rates will further increase in the later period will be limited.In terms of inventory, as production recovers, the operating rate of mainland enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory of enterprises has accumulated slightly, and the expectation of import reduction in port areas has gradually turned into reality. In addition, some MTO devices have been restarted, and inventory continues to be destocked. In terms of imports, some Iranian devices have continued to stop, but since September, the number of imported shipments has basically been at a normal level. At the same time, import profits have continued to expand recently, and it is expected that imports will be abundant in the later period. Overall, in the near future, a typhoon in East China will affect unloading in ports, and port inventory will continue to be sold. However, the supply pressure in the mainland is gradually becoming prominent, and a large inland device will ignite and drive to squeeze the market by the end of September. At the same time, as downstream profits are further compressed, there will be limited room for demand improvement. In addition, with great international macro uncertainty, methanol is still treated with an oscillating approach.
[Traffic Review]
Last night, futures fluctuated weakly and finally closed at 2709 (-22/-0.81%).
[Spot Market]
production location, the southern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2480 yuan/ton, and the northern line of Inner Mongolia is quoting 2550 yuan/ton. The price of Guanzhong area is 2,480 yuan/ton, the price of northern Shaanxi area is 2,410 yuan/ton, the price of Shanxi area is 2,580 yuan/ton, and the price of Henan area is 2,700 yuan/ton.
consumption place, the market price in southern Shandong is quoting 2,800 yuan/ton, the market price in northern Shandong is quoting 2,800 yuan/ton, and the quoting 2,700 yuan/ton in Hebei is quoting 2.700 yuan/ton.
Southwest region, the market price in Sichuan and Chongqing is 2,500 yuan/ton, and the price in Yunnan and Guizhou is 2,800 yuan/ton.
port, the futures market fluctuated and weakened, the market price of Taicang in the region was 2,700 yuan/ton, the market price of 2,780 yuan/ton in the region was 2,700 yuan/ton in the region, and the price of 2,700 yuan/ton in the region was 2,700 yuan/ton in the region.
[Important Information]
As of September 15, 2022, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 80.58%, down 1.82% from last week. The mainstream devices operated stably during the cycle, and the load of a few devices in Zhejiang regions was slightly adjusted.
urea
Yesterday, the main contract of urea futures closed at 2442 yuan/ton, -0.81%, with a position of 129,500 lots, +27,000 lots compared with the previous day, with a transaction of 104,600 lots, and the factory warehouse basis was +78 yuan/ton. In the spot market, Shandong Xiaozhong Granules mainstream ex-factory 2540-2560 yuan/ton, and Linyi pick-up price is around 2590-2600 yuan/ton. Shanxi Jincheng small particle cargo transportation quotation reference 2470-2480 yuan/ton, Yuncheng small particle reference 2460 yuan/ton. The factory reference for Henan small particles is 2520-2550 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory quotation for Hebei small particles is 2570-2600 yuan/ton. Data from
Longzhong Information shows that the average daily output of domestic urea this week was 160,200 tons, up 31,000 tons month-on-month and up 21,800 tons year-on-year. The enterprise inventory was 639,100 tons, up 97,400 tons month-on-month and up 278,800 tons year-on-year; the port inventory was 186,000 tons, up 43,000 tons month-on-month. This week, the operating rate of compound fertilizer equipment was 38.1%, up 3.51 percentage points month-on-month, and the company's inventory was 721,800 tons, up 47,000 tons month-on-month. The melamine operating rate was 51.15%, a month-on-month period of -3.37 percentage points.
Yesterday, the spot market prices in mainstream regions continued to rise steadily, but as prices rise and some urgent needs have been released, the enthusiasm for downstream acceptance has declined, and wait-and-see sentiment has increased. The momentum for the market to continue to rise in the short term may be insufficient. With the support of waiting, manufacturers have a strong attitude towards price support, and the spot market may tend to be stalemate. In terms of futures, the market closed slightly lower yesterday, and the overall commodity market atmosphere in the night market was weak, and risk aversion sentiment rose. In terms of operations, investors are advised to wait and see for the time being. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
thermal coal
[Trading Strategy]
The coal mine production in the main production area is normal, the daily output in Hubei has reached a normal level of more than 2.6 million tons, and the coal mine operating rate in Yulin area is above 78%. Hubei City has mostly fulfilled its long-term contracts, with fewer market transactions, and coal prices mainly focus on stability; Yulin area has good demand for coal foam, and prices continue to rise; Jinzhong area has limited supply, but after the price rises to a high level, it mainly focus on stabilization.On the demand side, on the coal side, the daily consumption of coastal power plants continued to decline to the same level in previous years, and the market coal procurement efforts further weakened; on the non-electric side, the load on chemicals started gradually increased, methanol and urea used coal, and the support was acceptable, and the pit-mouthed coal and block coal did not have the basis for a sharp drop. In terms of inventory, port inventory, recently, due to the rapid rise in coal prices in the production area and the shipment is inverted, traders are less enthusiastic about shipping, and the overall transfer intake is average. However, due to the impact of the typhoon, the port transfer has declined, and the inventory has increased passively to 19.9 million tons. However, the structural shortage of coal in the market is still obvious, and the phenomenon of holding goods and supporting the price is serious. The quotation of 5500K rose to 1,390 yuan/ton. Power plant inventory, as daily consumption continues to decline, power plant inventory continues to rebound, and the number of days available continues to increase. Under the long-term support for supply, inventory is expected to continue to rise. Overall, as power plant inventory continues to rebound, daily consumption falls to the same level, the number of days available increases significantly, and the intensity of coal procurement in the power plant market continues to weaken, but port inventory is relatively low, and the inventory of Northern Port, Jiangnei, East China and South China ports is rapidly displacing, the proportion of market coal has fallen sharply, and there is a serious structural shortage. Before the inventory returns to normal levels, even if the demand for power coal falls sharply, the market coal price does not have the basis for a sharp drop. However, recently, the Development and Reform Commission of the Bohai Rim Port Area issued a document to pay attention to the recent rapid rise in coal prices. Under the suppression of policies, it is expected that the upward space for port depots will be limited. The Daqin Line began maintenance at the end of September, focusing on the pace of port storage accumulation. As the supply of the main production areas returns to high levels, the demand for chemical coal gradually increases, and demand supports the strong coal price at the pit entrance. Focus on policy regulation (the above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entry into the market).
[Spot Market]
15th, the quotation of 5500 big cards was 1380-1450 yuan/ton, the quotation of 5000 big cards was 1220-1250 yuan/ton, and the quotation of 4500 big cards was 1050 yuan/ton.
production market, the current ex-factory price of 5,800 tobacco coal with tax in Shaanxi Province is 1,100-1,180 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 6,200 tobacco coal with tax is 1,260-1,400 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of 5,500 calories in tobacco coal in Inner Mongolia includes taxes of 950-990 yuan/ton.
[Important Information]
Development and Reform Commission: The peak period for energy use in winter is coming soon. The development and reform department will closely monitor the changes in the coal market and price, and immediately remind and interview if the coal sales price exceeds a reasonable range. If the interview is reminded and interviewed, it will be transferred to the market supervision department for investigation and punishment as a clue of suspected price gouging.
PVC
market review:
PVC fell yesterday, V2301 closed at 6292 points, down 0.80% or 51 points, and night trading V2301 closed at 6277 points, down 0.24% or 15 points.
Spot market:
Yesterday, the price of the PVC market in East China was slightly adjusted, the market transaction price center of gravity fell, the spot price was not much, and the transaction was mostly on the market. The low-end five-type transaction price was concentrated in the range of 6420-6450, the mid-range material was concentrated in the range of 6450-6500, the basis was in the range of 100-200, and the ethylene method price center of gravity continued to drop slightly by 50. The price of PVC market in Guangzhou fell slightly, with light transactions. The downstream low-price demand for replenishment is mainly due to the reference for spot transactions at 6,500-6,620 yuan/ton.
Important information:
1) This week, the PVC market social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, of which East China increased by 3.52% month-on-month to 308,500 tons. The final data shall be subject to Longzhong Data terminal or Longzhong official.
2) This week, PVC production enterprises' inventory increased by 2% month-on-month, and pre-sale orders decreased by 5%. The final data shall be subject to Longzhong Data terminal or Longzhong official.
3) Longzhong Information, this week, PVC production enterprises started construction increased by 4.01% month-on-month at 77.49%, and 6.86% year-on-year; among which the calcium carbide method increased by 1.85% at 77.72%, and 4.60% year-on-year; the ethylene method increased by 11.53% at 76.69%, and 13.96% year-on-year.
Trading strategy:
weekly PVC starts continue to rise, upstream inventory and social inventory accumulate, PVC supply and demand is poor, calcium carbide prices fall at the cost side, and cost support is limited, but PVC is still in losses, valuation is not high, and short-term price fluctuates. In the medium term, PVC is still in a surplus pattern and short selling at highs. (The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)
PTA
[Traffic Review]
Yesterday, the main contract of PTA2301 futures surged and fell, closing at 5710 (-8/-0.14%) on the day's trading session and closing at 5688 (-22/-0.39%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the basis of the main port is 01+970, and the MOPJ in October was trading at US$670/ton CFR at the end of the trading session; the PX valuation was US$1125/ton CFR, down US$13/ton month-on-month.
[Important Information]
1. Yesterday, the production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak, and the average estimated to be 30% to around 3:30 pm, and the average production and sales of polyester-spinning factories were 25%.
2. As of Thursday, the domestic operating rate of PTA was 67.5%, a week-on-month decrease of 3%, the polyester load was 83.2%, and a week-on-month decrease of 0.1%, the comprehensive start of Jiangsu and Zhejiang bombs decreased by 6% to 76%, the comprehensive start of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms rose by 1% to 71%, and the comprehensive start of Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing rose by 1% to 77%.
3. A 420,000-ton PX device in Japan has been stopped recently due to a front road reorganization failure, and the specific restart time has not been determined; Hainan Refining and Chemical's 660,000-ton PX device maintenance plan is being delayed, and another 1 million-ton PX device is planned to be stopped near the end of September to match its newly built second phase reorganization device,
[Submit] Easy Strategy] In terms of supply of
, Fuhaichuang's 4.5 million tons of TA device has raised negative expectations, and has maintained a load of 50% since early September. The 600,000 tons of TA device of Yangtze Petrochemical has plans to restart. Yisheng Dalian has recently increased to full load, and the previous period has dropped to 60% of the debt. Yisheng New Materials' 7.2 million tons of PTA device has dropped to around 50% of the debt at the beginning of this week due to the impact of typhoons. There are also negative expectations recently, and the basis has loosened today. In terms of demand, the operating rate of polyester multi-set devices is relatively low under maintenance, and the weekly and month-on-month changes are not large. The low profit and high inventory of polyester also limit the room for improvement. As PX changes month to month tomorrow, TA's cost center of gravity will be downward. As TA's processing fee increases, multiple sets of devices plan to raise negative pressure, and the basis may continue to converge downward, and the driving force behind TA's previous rise is weakening. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
PP
market review:
PP fell yesterday, PP2301 closed at 7983 points, down 0.93% or 75 points, and PP2301 closed at 7937 points, down 0.58% or 46 points.
Important information:
1) This week, the domestic polypropylene device starts at 81.14%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous week and down 7.07 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, the domestic parking loss of polypropylene equipment was about 108,900 tons, an increase of 10,300 tons from the previous week.
2) This week, the downstream start of PP increased, the start of construction in the plastic and weaving industry rose by 1 percentage point to 47%, the start of construction in the BOPP industry rose by 1 percentage point to 61%, and the start of construction in the injection molding industry rose by 2 percentage points to 51%.
Trading strategy:
PP starts slightly this week, and downstream starts on demand side have rebounded significantly. The current PP inventory is low, and September is in the traditional peak season of demand. In addition, it is in a critical period of policy, demand is still the core point of trading. The short-term peak season has been confirmed to be somewhat different, with macro atmosphere deviations and short-term price fluctuations. In the medium term, we face the start of new equipment + increase in imports + decrease in exports, and short selling at highs.(The views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for trading)
PF
[Traffic review]
The main contract of PF2211 rose and fell yesterday, closing at 7524 (+6/+0.08%) on the day, closing at 7500 (-24/-0.32%) on the night market. The spot price is stable. The center of gravity of semi-gloss 1.4D direct textile and polyester short Jiangsu and Zhejiang negotiations are 7750-8000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of Fujian is 8000-8050 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of Shandong and Hebei is 7850-8000 yuan/ton. .
[Important Information]
Yesterday, the production and sales of polyester silk in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell. The average estimated to be around 3:30 p.m. The sales of straight-spinning polyester are smooth, and the average production and sales of the factory are 16%.
[Trading Strategy]
Fujian Jingwei plans to restart the 200,000 tons/year staple fiber equipment, the start of staple fiber has risen, downstream yarn mill orders have improved and started to work, and production and sales have become weak today. Due to the poor profits, the downstream start of construction is limited, and the inventory of finished staple fiber products is relatively high, and processing fees may remain low. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
MEG
[Traffic Review]
Yesterday, the main contract of EG2301 futures fluctuated downward, closing at 4474 (-64/-1.41%) on the day's trading session and closing at 4439 (-35/-0.78%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the basis is weak. In the morning, the MEG spot basis 01 contract discount is around 55-65 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the basis weakened to 60-75 yuan for the contract discount in 01. In the morning, the basis for futures is around 25-30 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the discount is around 30-35 yuan/ton for the contract in 01.
[Important information]
1. The MEG device with 750,000 tons/year of Malaysian oil has been stopped recently for some reason. The initial recovery time is expected to be in early October
2. As of September 15, the overall ethylene glycol start-up load in mainland China was 46.42% (down 8.16% from the previous period), of which the ethylene glycol start-up load was 30.75% (down 0.35% from the previous period).
3, Sinopec's 280,000 tons/year MEG device in Wuhan has been successfully heated up and restarted recently. The device was previously stopped for maintenance in late August; the 300,000 tons/year Jinmei Jinmei Tongliao and SIA Energy's 400,000 tons/year synthesis gas ethylene glycol device in recent times was restarted, and the two sets of devices were suspended in late August in the early stage; Xinjiang Guanghui's 400,000 tons synthesis gas ethylene glycol device is scheduled to restart at the end of this month; Kuwait Dow's 530,000 tons/year MEG device in temporary parking was temporarily stopped in early September, but there is no clear restart plan due to factors such as benefits.
[Trading Strategy]
This week, due to the increase in Hengli's unplanned maintenance, the speed of recovery of ethylene glycol supply slowed down, and some synthesis gas ethylene glycol devices restarted. Due to the delay in shipment period caused by the typhoon, there is still a short-term expectation of sales in the ethylene glycol port inventory. Supply and demand are expected to be tightly balanced from September to October, and short-term prices fluctuate. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
EB
[Traffic Review]
Yesterday, the main contract of EB22010 futures fell sharply, closing at 8820 (-185/-2.05%) on the day's trading session and closing at 8774 (-46/-0.52%) on the night trading session. In terms of spot, the price of spot self-picking of styrene in Jiangsu was 9550-9650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month-on-month, the price of styrene in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei market was 9650 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the price of styrene in South China was 9400-9450 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton month-on-month, and the average spot price of pure benzene in East China was 7720 yuan/ton month-on-month, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton month-on-month.
[Important Information]
According to Zhuochuang Information statistics, the styrene start-up load rate this week was 72.41%, down 0.75% from 73.16% last week, down 52.38% for downstream products, down 7.89% for the week, PS start-up rate was 71.91%, up 2.7% for the week, ABS start-up rate was 86.02%, and construction started The rate rose by 0.37%.
[Trading Strategy]
In terms of supply, in late this month, Sinochem Quanzhou 450,000 tons, Ningbo Daxie 280,000 tons, and Oriental Petrochemical's 120,000 tons of styrene devices planned to restart. In terms of demand, EPS starts this week, and PS and ABS starts to increase slightly month-on-month. The profits of downstream hard rubber products are compressed, and transactions are not good. The overall market is on the wait-and-see. Styrene cost support weakens, and ship schedule delays caused by typhoons continue to be low in the short term, but supply and demand will weaken as styrene profits rebound and demand increases limitedly. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
