Recently, a data from the United States has flooded the screen again, that is, non-agricultural employment data! For friends who know economics and finance, they all understand the importance of non-farm employment data, which often has an important impact on the US economy.
Therefore, paying attention to the "authenticity" of non-agricultural data and observing the impact of non-agricultural data is one of the important conditions for everyone to judge whether the US economy is growing or recession. More importantly, we also need to cooperate with other data indicators to effectively confirm. What is non-agricultural data
, and what is the impact on the US economy?
The meaning of "non-agricultural" is actually very simple. It means that data outside the agricultural sector is excluded, and the non-agricultural employment data is better understood. It means that employment data outside the agricultural sector is excluded, which often refers to the data of individual employees employed by non-profit institutions, which can often explain the current employment situation and economic environment in the United States.
. For the release of non-agricultural employment data, there is a time requirement, that is, the first Friday of each month.
It actually has a close relationship with the US economy. This relationship is:
Non-agricultural data is better than expected - the US economy is getting better;
Non-agricultural data is worse than expected - the US economy is getting worse;
Of course, this is based on the premise that the continuous non-agricultural data is better than expected. Nowadays, such non-agricultural data has not actually been sustained, and it only takes two months, so we still need to analyze in depth and find out the reasons to truly and effectively judge whether the US economy is really growing strongly!
Why is the non-agricultural employment data so eye-catching, far higher than expected?
Indeed, from the data, the non-farm employment data in the United States has been higher than expected for two consecutive months, which is very exciting news for the United States! But you will find that such non-agricultural data is actually a bit "virtual"!
First, the sharp increase in non-agricultural employment data in the United States in the past two months is actually more caused by job searches after the strike wave.
We all know that in mid-to-late September, nearly 50,000 employees of General Corporation in the United States began to strike. The reason for the strike was that there was a problem with the distribution of labor interests with employers, and employees hoped to share better benefits and benefits.
This strike lasted for more than a month, and finally returned to work in October-November, causing a sharp rebound in employment rates. According to data, the number of people returning to employment on strike reached more than 40,000.
Although the non-agricultural employment data in November exceeded expectations, it is questionable whether it can continue to maintain in the future. This still requires long-term observation. It cannot be determined by the single-month non-agricultural employment.
Second, the US non-agricultural data is improving in the short term, which is the credit for Trump 's reduction of social welfare.
We all know that the United States is a country with very good welfare. For poor people, the US government will provide so-called "relief", that is, economic subsidies, for the poor.
So when the salary level in the United States declines but benefits are relatively high, many people will be unwilling to work and instead wait for benefits to help, which will cause a decline in the employment rate.
But now, because the debt problem in the United States is quite serious, the Trump administration has to cut welfare spending under huge financial pressure. This has led to a decrease in the benefits that poor people can enjoy, and the average hourly wage "in disguised increase". Therefore, more and more poor people can only sell their labor in exchange for corresponding income, thereby increasing the employment rate.
US non-farm data exceeds expectations. Does it prove that the US economy is still growing strongly?
In fact, this problem cannot be explained one-sidedly. I mentioned earlier that although the non-agricultural employment data today seems good, it is not sustainable, and it is not enough to support the strong growth of the US economy. We still need to conduct in-depth analysis through several conditions:
first. We can see that although the non-agricultural employment data is good, there are problems with the quality of employment, and the data is a bit "virtual".
As mentioned earlier, the reason for the good non-agricultural data is actually due to Trump's weak social welfare merit and the rework after the strike wave, but judging from the "small non-agricultural" (US ADP employment data), it is actually not ideal.
The number of ADP employment in the United States recorded an increase of 67,000 in November, far lower than expected by 140,000, a new low since May this year, and the previous value also revised down to 121,000.
As a rule, ADP employment data is a forward-looking prediction of non-agricultural employment data, and the difference between the two will not be too big. But now there is a very different difference. In fact, from the reasons, we can find that the current non-agricultural employment data is "water", and the ADP employment data can better reflect the facts. This proves that the US economy is not due to strong growth, but a sign of recession.
Second, the unemployment rate in the United States is at a historical low, facing the turning point , and the number of people applying for unemployment benefits has increased;
Most American workers are actually living by income because they do not have much savings, and they all live by debt. Because this part of the people's income is actually low, maintaining a debt balance close to income, which is very fragile.
data shows that the average debt of Americans is US$140,000, and the family debt ratio exceeds 80%. Most of the debt comes from medical care, house buying, consumption, education, etc., while the average salary of Americans is actually very differentiated:
1200-2000 US dollars belongs to the low-income group, equivalent to 8300-14000 yuan, with a higher proportion of ;
and a monthly salary of US$2000-4500 (14000-30000 yuan people) are technical white-collar workers or employees with a certain degree of education in the United States. , accounts for not much ;
The class with monthly salary of US$4,500 (30,000 yuan) belongs to the relatively high income class, which is close to the golden collar class, such as: university professors, doctors, etc., accounts for very little ;
Therefore, most Americans do not have much savings, and rely on income to support their lives and support their debts. Once they encounter bad situations such as unemployment and illness, they may go completely bankrupt.
At present, the United States has nearly 41 million relatively poor people, accounting for 12.7% of the total population of the United States. The population is absolutely poor (that is, people with an average daily living expenses of less than US$1.25) reaching 18.5 million. However, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in has gradually increased, indicating that the current employment environment in the United States is not as good as it seems.
Nowadays, the unemployment rate in the United States is under the historical 4% red line, and may bottom out rebound at any time. Once the unemployment rate bottoms out and rebounds and the turning point appears, the situation may be even worse.
And what we can see is that when residents leverage and corporate leverage are at historical highs at the same time, there will often be economic recession. If the unemployment rate in the United States rebounds in the future and most people in the United States have no jobs, it will naturally increase the government's economic burden and increase its own leverage risk, leading to an economic recession.
Therefore, it can only be said that the current US economy actually seems good, but in the long run, risks still exist.
Third, the US financial market poses great risks, and it has not yet been relieved!
Although all the three major U.S. stock indexes have hit record highs now, in essence, the price-to-earnings ratio of of the three major stock indexes has exceeded 22 times.
In the more than 200 years of the United States, the price-to-earnings ratio has gone from more than 20 times to be a risk, and more than 22 times to be a danger. Now the valuations of the three major indexes are already too high, so the space and probability of stimulating again to continue to rise in the US stock is insufficient, and there will be no need to squeeze bubbles in the future.
. For the current US economy, a large part of it actually depends on the strong US financial market. If US stocks weaken in the future, it will inevitably lead to an economic recession, which is also an inevitable trend.
To sum up, the current US economy is not in a cycle of strong growth, but rather a sign of an imminent recession! Because there is a certain amount of "water" in the short term supporting the positive non-agricultural employment data of the US economy and stock market and is unsustainable.
. For the other two important data, the unemployment rate and the US stock market, it is another situation facing a turning point, so we should look at it rationally. Only when these data continue to show a positive trend can the improvement of the US economy be effectively proved.
