text | Zhang Youhua
The latest three polls released on December 11 talked about the 2024 Taiwan general election. The representatives are Lai Qingde, Hou Youyi, and Ke Wenzhe. In this poll, Lai Qingde won 34.3% of the polls, beating Hou Youyi's 33.8% and Ke Wenzhe's 13.5%.
There was also a poll in the past that ranked Hou Youyi first, Lai Qingde second, and Ke Wenzhe third, which is quite similar to the one in Hsinchu City this time. When looking at this poll, we must realize that in the future, unless these three people represent the Democratic Progressive Party, the Kuomintang and the People’s Party , they will go to war. Looking back, Lai Qingde has 34.3%, which is almost the base of the DPP. There is a 0.5% difference between Hou Youyi’s 33.8% and Lai Qingde’s. However, Hou Youyi has not yet expressed his stance, unlike Lai Qingde and Ke Wenzhe who have already expressed their stance. There are still variables in the middle, because after all, there is Zhu Lilun in the middle. Let’s look at Ke Wenzhe’s 13.5%, which is in line with the People’s Party’s basic base.
From these polls, we can see that there are four meanings:
First, whether the DPP can stand up from the ruins, it is impossible for Lai Qingde to win, because the basic base alone is not enough to win the "big position", and there must be middle votes. Therefore, although Lai Qingde is firmly at the top of the list, he and Hou Youyi are within the margin of error.
Second, Ke Wenzhe of the People’s Party only has 13.5%. He will be eliminated no matter how he is elected in 2024. But will his 13.5% vote be the same as the votes between him and Lai Qingde in Taipei City? This has yet to be verified, because this time the election of Taipei mayor and the election of Hsinchu mayor did not abandon the guarantee. Of course, Hsinchu reluctantly said that there was an abandonment of the guarantee, but Zhu Lilun said that the success does not depend on me. The person who originally ranked first in the polls became third, and the person who originally ranked third in the polls became first, that is Gao Hongan.
Let’s talk about the stalemate in Taipei City. It was originally thought that Huang Shanshan’s ticket and Jiang Wanan’s ticket were interoperable in Taipei City. However, after ’s on-site inspection found that Huang Shanshan’s ticket was not interoperable with Jiang Wanan’s, but instead pulled Chen Shizhong. The key here is that Chen Shizhong's polls rose, Huang Shanshan's polls fell, Huang Shanshan's polls rose, Chen Shizhong's polls fell, while Jiang Wanan maintained flat , so after on-site observation, and based on the polls, it can be concluded that between the two, Chen Shizhong and Huang Shanshan have the same vote base.
So whether Ke Wenzhe’s vote base is connected with the KMT or the DPP, this of course needs to be verified. Because after all, there is still more than a year left, and we can’t tell yet. But from the perspective of the People's Party, he has absorbed almost all the youth votes of the DPP, and half of them include the so-called middle votes. So, is the DPP's vote base solid and will not flow to the so-called Ke Wenzhe? And will Ke Wenzhe's votes go to the DPP or the KMT? This variable is huge.
Third, because Hou Youyi has not announced his candidacy so far, when he does not announce his candidacy, his poll numbers will fluctuate, which is very high. Moreover, there are factors related to Zhu Lilun and other princes, so the Kuomintang has more variables than the DPP and the People's Party. However, during the Spring Festival of 2022, Zhu Lilun once told Hou Youyi that if the Kuomintang wins a big victory in 2022, he will definitely come out to run for office. Of course, this will be the same as in 2018.
What happened in the so-called 2018? After Hou Youyi defeated Su Zhenchang in 2018, Zhu Lilun immediately announced his candidacy. He announced his candidacy with high polls. Because the Kuomintang only had two cities left at that time, one was Taichung and the other was New Taipei . Therefore, in order to contain Zhu Lilun, Wu Dunyi's polls were very high at that time, so he found Han Guoyu , and found Guo Taiming and others. His purpose was to contain them.
Zhu Lilun is the same this time. Before the 2022 election, Zhu Lilun has hinted to Hou Youyi that if he wins wildly this time, he will announce his candidacy. In other words, Zhu Lilun’s actions are all ready, but now Zhu Lilun’s The variable is his polls within the party, as well as related polls, which are the polls for the 2024 "general election" we are talking about. His polls are not optimistic, so whether there will be another wave of internal strife within the Kuomintang, everyone is already talking about it.
Fourth, we can analyze it carefully from this poll, that is to say, although the Green Camp’s basic base only has “4+1” counties and cities, of course, the recent election of Chiayi City on December 18th, it seems that the DPP has already lost. This need not be discussed, that is to say, at least the “4+1” seats are Gaoping, Chiayi, , Jianan, and Penghu, which may have a maximum of 100,000 votes. is the real fundamentals of the DPP, while the KMT’s fundamentals and party identity need to be redone. People's Party Ke Wenzhe 13.5%, will he make a surprise move? The so-called surprise team is to pair him with Terry Gou, the "Deputy Guo Zhengke". This happened in 2019. Ko Wenzhe wanted to be the deputy. Many people persuaded him to be Gou's deputy, and Gou Taiming would represent the Kuomintang. However, Ko Wenzhe did not agree, so the matter was delayed until the end. Now the situation has changed, that is, the People's Party can actually only get air tickets for its operations in Taiwan, which is what we call air war. He has no way to conduct land warfare. This time the 2022 "election" has proved one thing. Although the air battle is fierce, you still cannot win this election without the cooperation of land warfare.
So, based on these, let’s look at this poll. Although Lai Qingde is 34.3%, Hou Youyi is 33.8%, and Ke Wenzhe is 13.5%, this poll will still change in the future. If the list includes Lai Qingde, Zhu Lilun, and Guo Taiming, it may be different.
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