Summary: Due to US sanctions, Iran's crude oil exports fell from 2.5 million barrels per day to 200,000 barrels per day. Iran's oil exports will continue to decline next year?
In addition, international oil prices have risen for two consecutive weeks. How will domestic refined oil prices change today (November 18)?
|Iran's crude oil exports will continue to decline?
[China National Oil Network] News: Due to the sanctions from the United States, Iran's crude oil exports continue to decline. Data shows that at the beginning of 2018, Iran's oil exports remained at around 2.5 million barrels per day, but in just over a year, it dropped to about 200,000 to 340,000 barrels per day.
plus Iran's domestic oil consumption is limited, slightly below 1.9 million barrels per day. Analysts predict that the risk of falling oil production in Iran will increase. But if the United States does not interfere with Iran, Iran's daily oil production in 2020 will stabilize at around 2.1 million barrels.
In addition, it is reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency report pointed out that Iran said last week that it had carried out uranium enrichment operations at the underground facility in Fordo, which violated the Iran nuclear agreement . Iran is breaching the agreement step by step in response to U.S. sanctions.
But Iran also stated that as long as the US lifts sanctions, Iran will immediately correct these violations.
Przeal Energy analyst Paul Sheldon believes that the United States is unlikely to impose sanctions on Iran during the November 2020 US election. That is to say, Iran's oil production will likely increase next year and oil exports may also increase.
|International oil prices rose for two consecutive weeks
On the other hand, the US crude oil inventories increased by 2.2 million barrels in the week ending on November 8 compared with the previous week.
statistics show that the current total U.S. crude oil inventory is 449 million barrels, 3% higher than the five-year average. Last week, U.S. refineries processed an average of 15.9 million barrels of crude oil per day, an increase of about 154,000 barrels from the previous week's average. The operating rate of refineries is 87.8% of production capacity.
Iranian crude oil exports will increase, and the sharp increase in U.S. oil inventories put pressure on international oil prices.
However, OPEC Secretary-General believes that the US shale oil production is much lower than expected, and OPEC countries and their allies are expected to expand the scale of production cuts next month and other news has driven by international oil prices.
During this round of domestic oil price adjustment cycle, international oil prices rose slightly for two consecutive weeks.
Among them, from November 4 to 10, New York crude oil closed at $57.24, an increase of 1.85%; Brent crude oil closed at $62.51, an increase of 1.33%. Last week, New York crude oil closed at $57.72, up 0.84%, while Brent crude oil closed at $63.3, up 0.79%.
|How will domestic oil prices change?
Since the beginning of this year, domestic oil prices have been adjusted 22 times, namely: 12 rises, 7 downs, and 3 stranded. After the rise and fall, gasoline rose by 320 yuan per ton, and diesel rose by 330 yuan per ton.
htmlOn January 18 at 24:00, domestic oil prices will be adjusted again.According to Zhuochuang Information, as of the 10th working day of the pricing cycle of refined oil, the reference crude oil change rate was 1.59%, the corresponding gasoline increase was 70 yuan/ton, and the diesel increase was 65 yuan/ton. According to the current amplitude, the increase in price increases of 92# gasoline is 0.05 yuan/liter and the increase in diesel is 0.06 yuan/liter.
, Jinlianchuang calculated that as of the 10th working day, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was US$60.84 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.4%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel prices should be raised by 85 yuan/ton respectively.
That is to say, tonight, domestic refined oil prices will likely be raised.
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