China Post Securities Co., Ltd. Wu Di recently conducted a research on Zhongding Co., Ltd. and released a research report "Another empty order was obtained, with orders in hand reaching 34.75 billion". This report gave Zhongding Co., Ltd. an buy rating , with the current share price of 15.57 yuan.
Zhongding Co., Ltd. (000887)
Incident
Company announced on October 25 that Anhui Anmeike recently received a customer notice that the company has become a point A supplier of three models of air suspension system supply unit assembly products for a leading domestic independent brand OEM factory in the new platform project. The life cycle of project is 5 years, and the total amount of life cycle is about 1.3 billion yuan.
Comments:
has sufficient orders in hand, and the performance is guaranteed to be fulfilled. The company currently has orders of 34.75 billion yuan, of which chassis lightweight is 14 billion yuan, air suspension is 8.57 billion yuan (domestic 6.89 + overseas 1.68), and cooling system is 12.18 billion yuan. According to the five-year life cycle, the corresponding annualized revenue is 6.95 billion yuan, accounting for 55.24% of the revenue in 2021, and the corresponding annualized profit is about 830 million yuan, accounting for 85.57% of the profit in 2021. The future performance will gradually be realized, and the growth is certain.
air suspension accelerates penetration, and assembly orders bring value and quantity improvement several times. The company's air supply unit products and technology are leading in the world, with a bicycle value of 1,700-2,000 yuan. In August, the company obtained an air suspension assembly order, with a bicycle value of 9,000 yuan, which is several times higher than the single-component product value. We expect consumption upgrades to continue to drive accelerated penetration of air suspension, with the global industry scale of more than 20 billion yuan in 2025.
continues to enhance the chassis business and NVH superimposed lightweight. With decades of product and customer experience in the NVH business, the company's traditional business maintains its revenue and profitability, and the lightweight business revolves around the ball head hinge quickly. We expect the revenue scale of this business to be 1 billion/2 billion yuan in 2022/2025, strengthening the company's chassis business position.
Investment advice
We expect the company's operating income in 2022/23/24 to be 13.9/160/18.5 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.084/1.428/1.703 billion yuan, the EPS is 0.82/1.08/1.29 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 17.6/13.3/11.2 times, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
risk warning
upstream raw materials continue to rise and out of stock; downstream application penetration rate increases less than expected; US dollar exchange rate declines; market competition intensifies.
Securities Star Data Center calculates based on the research report data released in the past three years, CITIC Securities Researcher Li Zijun's team has conducted in-depth research on the stock, with the average prediction accuracy in the past three years as high as 97.43%. It predicts that the attributable net profit in 2022 will be 1.111 billion yuan, and the predicted PE based on the current price conversion is 18.93.
latest profit forecast details are as follows:
A total of 19 institutions in the stock have given ratings in the past 90 days, 16 buy ratings and 3 increase ratings; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days was 23.8. According to the financial report data in the past five years, Securities Star valuation analysis tool shows that Zhongding Co., Ltd. (000887) has good competitiveness in the industry, average profitability and average revenue growth. There may be hidden financial concerns, and financial indicators that need to be paid attention to include: monetary funds/total asset ratio, interest-bearing debt-to-asset ratio , accounts receivable/profit ratio. The stock has a good company index of 2.5 stars, a good price index of 3 stars, and a comprehensive index of 2.5 stars. (Indicators are for reference only, indicator range: 0 ~ 5 stars, maximum 5 stars)
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