Hello everyone! I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! Today is February 25th. Today's article title is "Harbinding stimulus caused the stock index to fall by more than 100 points in the intraday market. How will the short-term market rebound after a weak short-term rebound?

Hello everyone! I am Wang Qingzhang from "Niu Ben Finance"! today is February 25, and the title of today's article is "Harbinding stimulus has caused the stock index to fall by more than 100 points in the intraday market. How will the short-term market rebound after a weak short-term rebound? 》

【The above are personal ideas, no basis for trading, the stock market is risky, so be cautious when investing! 】

【How will the market run in the near future after a hundred points decline? 】

1. Before the Spring Festival, we predict that the market will rebound for 2-3 days after the festival, and then there will be a high probability of fluctuation and decline.

2, starting from Monday, we continue to remind everyone of risks and predict that this week's market will surge and fall.

3, affected by the negative impact of Hong Kong stocks' 30% increase in stamp duty, the market plummeted 100 points yesterday, and the index once fell back to 3530 points.

4. In the short term, there is a small rebound after a big drop, and then the probability of falling back near the 60 moving average is high.

5, after the 60 moving average fluctuated and accumulated momentum, there was still a weak rebound from the beginning of March.

6, but after mid-March, you must be cautious and retreat in time!

1, [Message]

1, [Hong Kong stocks raised stamp duty by 30%, high-frequency trading retreats! 】2 On February 24, news of raising stamp duty hit the Hong Kong stock market hard. The Hang Seng Index fell by more than 3%, and the decline in Hong Kong stocks was directly transmitted to A-shares, causing A-shares to fall by more than 100 points yesterday! The net outflow of southbound funds was close to HK$20 billion, and most of the outflow of southbound funds came from high-frequency trading funds! Hong Kong Stock Exchange responded to a question at the 2020 annual performance media briefing on February 24, saying: The increase in stamp duty will not be implemented within a few months, and the legislative process still needs.

2, [Overnight Outside] overnight outside market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.35%, setting a new closing high, the S&P rose 1.14%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.99%; retail investors made a comeback, and the new energy vehicle and energy sectors led the rise; oil prices rose more than 2.5%. Specifically, on Wednesday, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed up collectively, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record closing high, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1%. Commodity market: International oil prices continued to rise, and both the US and Blanc both rose more than 2.5%. As of the closing, New York April crude oil futures closed up $1.55, or 2.51%, at $63.22 per barrel. International gold prices closed slightly lower, falling behind the $1,800 mark again. As of the close, the most active trading price of gold futures market in the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$8 on the 24th from the previous trading day, closing at US$1,797.9 per ounce, a drop of 0.44%.

2. Market review

1. Yesterday, the three major indexes in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were fluctuating and falling. In the morning, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes opened slightly higher, and then began to rise and fall, fluctuating and falling! Affected by the continued sell-off in the group stocks and the negative news stimulus, the index decline increased in the afternoon, and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 100 points at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index bottomed out and rebounded after receiving support at 3530 points, and closed down more than 70 points! Overall, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes opened high and closed low yesterday. From the perspective of sectors, catering, hotels, transportation equipment, digital currency and other sectors led the rise yesterday; but oil, papermaking, mining services, steel and chemical fiber, winemaking and other sectors led the decline. Individual stocks fall more and rise less, short-term popularity begins to decline again. In the short term, pay attention to avoiding the adjustment of core stocks that are grouped at high levels, and wait patiently for the retracement to reach the position before lurking. Every time you step back, pay attention to the hype opportunities for expected concepts in the conference!

2. Technically, major indexes rebounded on Tuesday. Yesterday, the market was affected by negative news, and the stock index fell back to 3530 points at a low price! rebounded slightly at the end of the trading session, and the trading volume shrank, and there is a need for a rebound after a sharp drop in the short term market! But after the rebound, there is still a need to step back above the 60 moving average again. If you step back, the support in the 3530-3500 range below the short-term trend of will mainly look at the support in the range of 3530-3500, and will not break these important support. There is still a need for a higher index! Pay attention to the pressure in the range 3600-3630-3650 above! But any rebound in late February will be mainly sold high! After the retracement is in place, there will be a small rebound in early March. At the same time, we must avoid the risks of poor-performing stocks and high-priced stocks to prevent the misstep! In terms of operations, look for opportunities in sectors that expect performance growth and the 14th Five-Year Plan.Always be alert to the changes in the index in operation! Don’t chase high!

3, capital trends

1, yesterday, the three major A-share indexes closed down collectively, of which the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.99% to close at 3564.08 points; the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.44% to close at 14870.66 points; the ChiNext Index fell 3.37% to close at 3007.46 points, and once lost the 3000 point mark during the session. The two markets had a total turnover of 1.06 trillion yuan, and the industry sectors rose and fell. The third-generation semiconductor concept stocks led the rise, the brewing sector led the decline, and the institutional stocks fell sharply. Northbound funds sold a net sale of 673 million yuan today.

2, [It is worth noting that last year, foreign investors futures chips subtracted the long orders of up to 40,000 lots, and then continued to increase short orders! Last Thursday, foreign futures increased short orders by 6168 lots; Last Friday, foreign futures reduced short orders by 1208 lots; This Monday, foreign futures increased short orders by more than 3000 lots; Tuesday, foreign futures increased short orders by 1605 lots; Yesterday, Wednesday, foreign futures reduced short orders by 1159 lots; Overall, foreign futures have still mainly short orders! Unfavorable to the continued rebound of the stock market! I really can’t understand the practice of foreign futures now! It is also possible that foreign futures are in the middle line! Therefore, after the stock index rises, it is necessary to be cautious after entering late February or mid-March! Prevent the index from rising and falling again! 】

4, technical

Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were in a high and fall, affected by negative news and weakening of technical straits. Yesterday, the three major indexes fell sharply during the session, and the decline narrowed in the late trading! The recent collective decline of stocks in the group has been the main reason for the sharp drop in the index! The market style has also changed in the past two days. Individual stocks generally rise no longer, more falls, less rises. From the perspective of technical indicators, the daily KDJ index of the Shanghai Composite Index passivates a dead cross at a high level, and there is a dead cross in the downward movement, and the red column of the MACD index of the same level is shortened. In the short term, the index is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range of 3500-3700, and then look at the direction choice! Even if the short-term market still rises, there is still a need to further retrace! From the perspective of moving average system, Shanghai is strong and Shenzhen is weak, especially the trend of the ChiNext is not bad! In the short term, as long as the Shanghai Composite Index does not break through 3530-3500, the index still needs to rise, but pay attention to the pressure in the range of 3600-3630-3650 above! In the short term, there will not be too much room for a pullback, and the index is expected to be mainly fluctuating in the range of 3500-3700! Retracement and stabilization can lurk, but if you hit the high, you will take the idea of selling high! Pay attention to avoid stocks with high performance prices in operation. Many stocks that have fallen sharply recently are among stocks with high performance prices! At present, the main line is mainly concentrated in the cyclical stocks that have just exploded at the bottom and the 14th Five-Year Plan! But try to lurk as much as possible, not suitable for chasing highs! The rotation of the sector is accelerating, and it is easy to get trapped even if you chase highs! Pay attention to dips, band operation is the best strategy! Pay attention to avoid stocks with a cumulatively high gains and control positions.

5, Market observation

Avoid the risks of extremely poor stocks: The most important event in the market is that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges solicit opinions on the new delisting rules. Judging from the solicitation of opinions, the new delisting rules have added new market value to delisting. One is that the total market value is less than 300 million yuan for 20 consecutive trading days, and the delisting of the face value is changed to "1 yuan delisting". This may not be good news for low-priced stocks and low-market targets, but it will increase the market delisting rate; secondly, there are changes in financial indicators. For example, a single net profit indicator becomes a reference for the combination of indicators. In addition, the new standards stipulated by the new regulations simplify the delisting process and improve the efficiency of delisting.

Of course, it is too early to say that the market style has been changed. After all, from a medium-term perspective, the grouping of core assets and institutions is still the main trend, and with the continuous increase in fund size and the expansion of recent funds, this phenomenon may exist for a long time. But even core assets still have phased drawdowns. If they fail to keep pace with the pace, the possibility of floating losses is very high. At present, core assets may have lost the best intervention point and need to wait. While waiting, high-quality products with low valuations may usher in new favor from funds, and can also be lurked and tracked in advance.

group stocks continued to win more. From the perspective of sector index, the liquor sector, one of the core group directions in the early stage, has already pulled back to near the 60-day moving average. From the perspective of the corresponding weight stocks, Kweichow Moutai has pulled back to near the acceleration start point in early February. Because some leading funds have chosen to reduce positions through dividends, the passive reduction pressure caused by redemption has been expected to weaken in terms of probability. In addition, the 450 billion equity funds are still in the gradual establishment period to have support for passive allocation of the market. We believe that the probability of the market index gradually stabilizing increases. But it still needs to be emphasized that the medium and short term of the group stocks are still only similar to the technology sectors in 2019, with high-level fluctuations and consolidation and gradually digesting medium and long-term floating chips. The decline of the index is a multifaceted reason. The increase in stamp duty has indeed caused a great emotional blow to the market. Originally, everyone expected to reduce stamp duty, but this did not decrease but rose. The transaction costs increased, which is very unfavorable to short-term sentiment. This will induce institutions to continue to join the group, but recently the group fund has been scolded very badly, so the stock market is really difficult. If you don’t join the group, you will be forced to join the group, and you will be scolded again.

6, industry information

1, the new environmental protection policy will be officially implemented soon, and the popularity of relevant sectors may increase

The "Pollutant Emission Permit Management Regulations" will be officially implemented on March 1. The Regulations clearly define the scope and categories of pollution discharge permit management, standardize the procedures for applying for and approving pollution discharge permits, strengthen pollution discharge management, strictly supervise and inspect, and strengthen legal responsibilities. The CPC Central Committee and the State Council attach great importance to the management of pollution discharge permits. The Regulations require that all pollutants discharge pollutants according to their certificates. Pollutants that have not obtained pollutants shall not discharge pollutants, and strengthen supervision during and after the event to ensure that the pollution discharge permit management system is implemented. It is expected that under the catalysis of a series of strict supervision, the space and demand in the environmental protection industry are expected to be gradually released.

2, the Tianwen-1 probe successfully implemented near-fire braking

According to the National Space Administration, at 6:29 on February 24, my country's first Mars exploration mission, the Tianwen-1 probe successfully implemented the third near-fire braking, entering the Mars parking orbit with a near-fire point of 280 kilometers, a far-fire point of 59,000 kilometers, and a Mars parking orbit that lasts 2 Mars days. The detector will run on the berthing track for about 3 months, and all seven loads of the surrounder will be turned on and scientific detection will begin.

3, MUC shortage is getting worse and worse, and domestic substitution is expected to speed up

It is reported that due to the shortage of production capacity, many MCU manufacturers in Taiwan recently announced the price increase again and even stopped taking orders. Yilong recently said that the company has officially raised prices since January 1 this year. Recently, due to considering the company's product planning, MCU products have been suspended from taking orders after the New Year, and the cumulative price increase starts at least 10%. In addition, Shengqun and Lingtong have both taken the second price increase this year. Shengqun general manager Gao Guodong pointed out on February 23 that customers have a strong demand for MCUs, and the overall order has been seen until 2022, and some products have even stopped taking orders.

(For investors' reference only, it does not constitute investment advice; the stock market is risky, so investing should be cautious.)

7. Information navigation

7. Molybdenum price jumped beyond expectations, and the performance of related companies is expected to improve. The issuance of

will promote the large-scale application of Beidou terminals in the industry.

Business: The goal this year is to resolutely stabilize the basic foundation of foreign trade and foreign investment.

The avian influenza outbreak in Europe has caused the price of eggs in many European countries to rise.

sodium ion battery mass production, lower cost, better performance, longer life.

National Transportation Network Planning Outline is issued and improved the level of smart development.

5G messages will be fully moved to the main entrance for commercial and smart terminal services.

The new environmental protection policy will be officially implemented soon and the popularity of related sectors may increase.

The Yangtze River Protection Law is imminent and the market space for pollution control is broad.

panel rose by 5% late this month, and the rise can continue until the second quarter.

Capacity expansion is coming to an end, and Evonik has once again raised the methionine quotation.

consumption and cyclical sectors fell collectively, and they are relatively optimistic about small and medium-sized market value.

Intelligent connected vehicles have been promoted again by policy and vehicle-road collaboration has become the main focus.

Cobalt price has risen by more than 20% this month, and the supply of raw materials has continued to ferment.

Hisense screen driver chips have been shipped in total, with a global share of over 50%.

State Administration of Taxation: China has issued investment tax guidelines for 104 countries (regions).

China Iron and Steel Association: China's steel price index was 123.03 points at the end of January, a month-on-month decrease of 1.2%.