"Lithium Super Crazy" makes a comeback. Australia's Pilbara Mining Company held its sixth and ninth lithium concentrate auction this year on the 20th. The final transaction price was US$6,988 per ton, an increase of about 10% from the last auction price, setting a new high. Pilbara's auction price is the global lithium concentrate vane. Affected by this, domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate prices have frequently set new records in recent days.
In March this year, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate calculated by Shanghai Steel Union rose to 504,000 yuan per ton. This price fluctuated and fell after one month, and was stable at more than 460,000 yuan per ton. After half a year, the transaction price of battery-grade lithium carbonate in the spot market returned to more than 500,000 yuan per ton, and broke through the previous high, which greatly increased the pressure of the industry to ensure supply and stabilize prices.
Lithium concentrate is an important raw material for the production of lithium salts. Lithium salt products mainly include lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide. The former is mainly used for lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide and some ternary positive electrode materials, and the latter is mainly used for the production of high-nickel ternary positive electrode materials. The prices of upstream lithium concentrate and lithium salt remain high, making midstream battery companies and downstream vehicle companies miserable. The "working theory" of executives of GAC Group and CATL at the World Power Battery Conference is a reflection of their difficulties and is worth reflecting on.
There is no shortage of analysis on the market about the reasons why lithium prices continue to rise. Some people say that in August, Sichuan Province, the main domestic lithium salt production area, encountered "power limit", and its production capacity fell sharply; some people say that the battery capacity increase speed on the demand side is faster than that on the supply side mines and salt lake mining and lithium extraction, resulting in a phased mismatch between supply and demand; some people say that the country does not have the right to speak for lithium and related commodities, and the current price has been led by international speculators.
At the same time, the price of lithium resources is rising trend, sellers are reluctant to sell, buyers are hoarding, and middlemen are hoarding, etc., which may lead to a tight supply; and the explosion of the new energy vehicle market seems to confirm the market's judgment that the supply is insufficient, which triggers the lithium price to rise and fall.
No matter what the specific reason is, if the profits of each link cannot be guaranteed to be profitable, the industrial chain will be difficult to say that it is stable and safe, let alone health. However, the latest market information shows that due to the strong consumption of new energy vehicles and the expansion of energy storage market, battery companies are currently willing to rush to work, which will increase the consumption of lithium salt. The new lithium salt capacity previously planned by major manufacturers is mostly concentrated at the end of the year, and the production capacity will be truly increased next year. This means that the pressure from battery suppliers and new energy vehicle companies will be difficult to alleviate in the short term. Faced with the current high prosperity of new energy and complex market conditions, in order to ensure that lithium prices can operate stably within a reasonable range, we need to make efforts in supply, demand, recycling and supervision.
From the supply side, on the one hand, we must accelerate the development of domestic lithium resources, and on the other hand, we must help domestic enterprises steadily expand foreign raw material mining and supply channels. From the demand side, we must strengthen the supply and demand connection between upstream and downstream new energy vehicle industry chain, and guide upstream and downstream enterprises to establish long-term interests sharing collaborative relationships through signing long-term agreements to hedge against the risks of upstream and downstream surges and plummets. From the perspective of the recycling chain, enterprises should be encouraged to increase the research and promotion of key technologies such as flexible dismantling and efficient recycling of retired batteries, and explore the formation of a number of new business models such as "leasing and selling of cascade batteries" and "scrap-for-scrap materials" to improve the efficient utilization level of resource recycling. Of course, normalized supervision is also essential. Relevant departments should investigate and punish the phenomenon of hoarding middlemen and speculating on high prices. They should not be lenient.
With the acceleration of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, the power of automobile products is shifting from internal combustion engines to electric power, and lithium batteries have become the main power source of new energy vehicles. However, at a time when new energy vehicles are celebrating multiple technical routes, and various new products such as solid-state batteries, sodium batteries, hydrogen fuels are emerging one after another, we need to repeatedly ask whether there will be better power sources to replace lithium batteries in the future? If so, lithium batteries may be just passers-by among many industrial products; if not, we should take the value of lithium as an energy metal to give it a high priority, and make strategic top-level design, industrial layout and development plans. We must not only accelerate the construction of a relatively stable supply system, but also strive for international pricing power.
(author Yang Zhongyang), original title "Multi-party collaboration to block "lithium super crazy""
Source: China Economic Network
