Taiwan Normal University professor Zeng Guanqiu said in an interview that people in the DPP may not necessarily want to win the election at the end of the year. If they win, everything will not change. If they lose, the power will be redistributed. It seems that Tsai Ing-wen and Su Zhenchang most hope to win the election at the end of the year. The two are going to advance and retreat together. As long as they win the election at the end of the year, Su Zhenchang will continue to strive for 2024. As for whom Tsai Ing-wen supports in 2024? He analyzed that for Cai, who can support him to "go to the village" safely and not be chased by a lawsuit after leaving office. This will be Cai's consideration.
Zeng Guanqiu said in an interview with Hong Kong's "China Review News Agency" that if the DPP is good at the end of the year, it will continue to lead strongly by Tsai Ing-wen in accordance with the current leadership method. For some people, they may not have the opportunity to qualify in the future. Some people in the DPP want power to be redistributed. Lai Qingde intends to strive for 2024. Although he is currently standing everywhere, it is not clear whether he has mobilized privately. Because if the election at the end of the year is a big win, it will be detrimental to those who want to choose 2024 but do not have administrative resources.
Zeng Guanqiu analyzed that we should observe now that if the invoice is not as expected, what will happen to the DPP in the future will be? This has been deduced in the current election process. Those who are interested in winning 2024 now choose county and city mayors and manage local connections through close candidates. They may not necessarily win the election, but they can use this time to choose the election and "help me take care of the connections". This is also considered a win, and don't be taken away by other camps.
He said that if the DPP only has two counties in the southern "two capitals" and two counties (Tainan City, Kaohsiung City, Chiayi County, and Pingtung County), it would be a big defeat. Tsai Ing-wen should step down as usual. If Taoyuan loses, it will be over. New Taipei City has no expectation to win at all, but Taoyuan mayor loses, the current mayor Zheng Wencan is Tsai Ing-wen's "direct line". If Taoyuan chooses to lose, Tsai Ing-wen will lose. The mayor nomination for Hsinchu is also led by Cai. The mayor's choice of Hsinchu mayor is also considered to be Cai's loss. These two counties and cities are indicators. Cai has the pressure to lose. As long as these two counties and cities lose, Tsai Ing-wen's pressure to be reviewed within the party will increase.
Zeng Guanqiu said that although Taipei City loses, it is also considered a loss, Tsai Ing-wen and his men are likely to mention whether it is worse than the 2018 Democratic Progressive Party candidate Yao Wenzhi won the votes (17.3%). Or if DPP candidate Chen Shizhong doesn’t lose much, those who support Tsai may use this as an excuse to say that they have not lost, and they may strive for room for Tsai not to step down.
Zeng Guanqiu said that if he loses the election at the end of this year, Tsai Ing-wen should resign from the party chairman as he did in 2018. As for whether Lai Ching-te will run for the election, Zeng Guanqiu said that there is no way to judge at the moment, but Su Zhenchang may also want to elect the party chairman. When the results of this year's election come out, if the DPP loses, it is likely to be another struggle. The second game will be staged. Of course, Cai wants to choose the best, but it may not be beneficial to others. The least you don’t want to choose to lose is Su Zhenchang. Su wants to tie him up and advance and retreat together. But Su Zhenchang's expectation of losing will be criticized. If he goes to win the party chairman again, it will be ugly.
Zeng Guanqiu also said that if he wins the election at the end of the year, Su Zhenchang will have a chance in 2024, and he will be considered to be the credit for his hard work in the selection.
Zeng Guanqiu also analyzed to the "China Review News Agency". On the other hand, it also depends on whether there is a tacit understanding between Lai Ching-te and Tsai Ing-wen, which is also a variable. If Cai and Lai have a tacit understanding, fate is likely to be connected. For Lai, winning at the end of the year will be better than losing; if the two have no tacit understanding, then losing may not be bad. If the choice is not ideal, Lai will have new opportunities.
He pointed out that for Tsai Ing-wen, who can support her can safely "down the village" and not be chased by a lawsuit after leaving office. This is also Tsai's consideration. There will be challenges for the resignation of Taiwan leaders. Tsai Ing-wen cannot not think about the plan to "go to the village" safely. This will definitely affect who Tsai Ing-wen supports in the future 2024. Tsai will also consider whether the person who can continue her route. Both aspects are Tsai Ing-wen's consideration of who to support in 2024.
Zeng Guanqiu also said that Lai Ching-te and Su Zhenchang are actively fighting for Tsai Ing-wen's route, in order to make Tsai Ing-wen think that they will not cause trouble, so that power distribution will be balanced. But if the election is not good at the end of the year, the balance will be broken, and the redistribution and operation of power will be staged. (Source: China Review News Agency)
