On November 18, 1967, the pound depreciated for the second time after the war; on March 17, 1968, the "gold consolidation" disintegrated; on August 8, 1969, the franc depreciated by 11.11%.
On August 15, 1971, US President Nixon delivered a televised speech, closing the gold window and stopping governments or central banks from holding US dollars to exchange gold. The US dollar breaks out of the prison of gold and floats freely in the foreign exchange market.
In 1972, the price of gold in the London market rose from 1 ounce to 46 US dollars to 64 US dollars.
In 1973, the price of gold broke through $100.
From 1974 to 1977, gold prices fluctuated between US$130 and US$180.
In 1978, crude oil soared to $30 a barrel, and gold prices rose to $244.
In 1979, the price of gold rose to $500. In October, U.S. inflation broke through 12%.
In the first two trading days of January 1980, the gold price reached US$634. US Treasury Secretary Miller announced that the Treasury Department would no longer sell gold. In less than 30 minutes, the gold price rose sharply to US$30 to US$715, and hit a new high of US$850 on January 21. US President Carter had to come out to suppress the gold market, saying that he would definitely protect the United States' position in the world at any cost. At the close of the day, the gold price fell by $50.
On February 22, 1980, the price of gold fell sharply by US$145.
The first gold bull market in contemporary times has come to an end, and it lasts for 12 years. Gold prices rose from $35 in 1968 to $850 in 1980, with a 30% profit rate each year. In 1980, the amount of gold investment reached US$1.6 trillion, which exceeded the market value of US stocks, which was only US$1.4 trillion. In 1959, gold investment was only one-fifth of the market value of U.S. stocks.
In 1981, the peak of gold price per ounce was US$599. By 1985, the market trend fell to around $300. In 1987, after the US stock market collapsed, gold prices fell all the way after hitting the peak of $486.
Comments on the gold market from 1988 to 1999:
February 8, 1988: Last Friday, gold price per ounce closed at $439, which made gold friends sweat because the support point of the gold price was just at this level. Technical analysis tells us that once this level falls below, the gold price will be in a state of unsupported state. What price should it fall to to stabilize? The technicalists are not sure. Elliot's theory's instructions are $180.
August 20, 1988: Since investors are worried that the recession will come sooner or later, gold is an investment tool that should not be ignored. During the stock market crash in the 1930s, the most representative gold mining stock Homestake's stock price rose from $7 in 1929 to $46 in 1932 (dollar declined 90% during the period).
February 1, 1989: The gold price has fallen by 52% from the historical high of US$850 on January 20, 1980 by the end of 1988. In the past decade, the inflation rate in the United States has increased by 90%, and Japan, known as the low inflation rate, is also at the level of 20%. This trend of gold shows that it has no ability to resist inflation, and gold should be removed from the "value-preserving commodity" (interestingly, if measured in the Japanese yen, the gold price decline in the past decade has been the most severe, reaching 75%.).
In the 1980s, the weakness of interest-free gold costs emerged. Because in the 1970s, interest rates on bonds and banks were lower than the inflation rate, that is, the "negative interest rate", gold was negligible at this time. By the 1980s, the returns provided by bonds and other fixed interest investment vehicles were higher than the inflation rate, which made the charm of gold suddenly fade.
February 13, 1989: Famous paintings and antiques are interest-free products like gold and silver. Why did the former have soared in the 1980s? The reason is that things are rare and precious. Famous paintings and antiques are often unique, and gold and silver can be continuously produced.
November 15, 1989: Gold price rebounded from US$350 in mid-September to US$391.5 in closing on November 14, with an increase of 11% in two months, which made the "Golden Beetle" very excited, but it is difficult to achieve anything upward.
December 9, 1989: After the gold price reached US$427 on November 27, news of the Soviet Union selling gold in large quantities, causing market prices to fluctuate significantly. In fact, in the past decade, rumors of "Soviet gold selling" as the world's second largest gold producer have played a huge role in the falling gold price.
The gold price is indeed irrelevant to the inflation rate. In 1981, the U.S. inflation rose by 8.9%, but gold prices fell by 32% that year; in 1986, the inflation rate fell to 1.1%, but gold prices rose by 19% that year.
May 24, 1990: 18.7 tons (27,000 ounces per ton) of gold appeared in the market. It was the US liquidator who launched the gold held by the recently filed for bankruptcy and the financial company. The gold price fell sharply, pushing it to $360.
July 12, 1990: In 1989, new gold production plus old gold crushed gold integration (cast into gold bars) and other sources, the total gold supply was 2,723 tons. In terms of demand, 138 tons of jewelry were used, 138 tons of electronics were used, 123 tons of gold coins were used, and 651 tons were purchased for the others (mainly real gold holders).
The demand for jewelry gold accounts for 67% of the total gold supply, and the gold used for jewelry in 1989 increased by 23% compared with about 1,500 tons in 1988. Despite this, gold prices remained sluggish. In 1988, central banks in various countries sold 285 tons of gold, while in 1989 it sold 255 tons.
As the decline of the Cold War, gold as a political insurance utility has also disappeared, and gold that has to be paid for rent without interest may not be chosen by smart investors.
September 5, 1990: Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the price of gold rebounded from US$370 to US$417, and then returned to US$383. As the US fiscal deficit becomes increasingly serious, the dollar exchange rate is shaking and the global credit crisis is about to emerge. In the long run, gold prices are moving closer to the "neckline" of $500. Once it rises to $500, the lowest increase can make the gold price reach $700, the middle number is $850, and the maximum can be seen at $1,000.
January 12, 1991: Now it is "cash is king", which is a world of difference from "cash is garbage" in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Gold has become a commodity that has "sinking and stumbled". But gold prices may still rebound sharply.
June 13, 1991: Gold and silver rose together, but there are different reasons. The price of ounces of silver fell below $4 in March, less than one-tenth of its highest price because people thought that silver was oversupply. But in mid-May, an American institution believed that silver was just too much supply. In 1991, silver production was 481 million ounces, while demand reached 590 million ounces. As a result, silver rose sharply, reaching a maximum of US$4.64. The trend faction pointed out that the watershed of silver is $4.22 and has entered an upward trajectory.
As for gold, it is a desperate attempt to change. Most institutional investor portfolios have no gold, and the large-scale U.S. mutual fund Kemper dissolved its gold funds last month. The Washington Spokane Stock Exchange, which buys and sells gold mine stocks, announced that it will temporarily close its business, etc. People finally started to work in reverse, causing gold prices to rebound.
There is also an interesting " fear index ". An investment adviser in the United States created a fear index based on the relationship between the current price of the Federal Reserve's deposit and the supply of US dollar (M3). At the end of May, the ounces of gold price was $360.75, the Federal Reserve deposited 261.9 million ounces, and the M3 issuance volume was $476 million, which is equal to $226 per hundred dollars. This is the Fear Index 2.26, which is close to the record of 2 points in the Fear Index set by Nixon in 1971. The US dollar has a gold content of 2.26%, which means that the remaining 97.7% of the US dollar is made out of nothing and is backed by the credit support of the US government. The US government is heavily in debt, and all of this 97.74 US dollars comes from borrowing. So people sell dollars to buy gold. The highest point of the Fear Index is 10 points, at a time when gold prices were sky-high in 1980.
October 8, 1994: The suits on the famous tailor street in the UK have been at the price of five or six ounces of gold for hundreds of years, which is a clear proof of the long-lasting purchasing power of gold. If the price of ounces of gold exceeds $396, the next target is $406. Once this threshold is broken, the gold bull market will be born, and you can see $1,200.
February 5, 1996: Last Friday, the price of gold rose to $418.5, breaking the high price of $409 in 1993. Technical experts believe that once this threshold is broken, the price of gold has a chance to break $445.
Central banks of various countries not only sell gold, but also rent. In terms of gold selling, the highest was that it sold 600 tons in 1992, and it was estimated that it was 3,000 tons in 1995.Gold merchants are not interested in future gold prices, so they try to rent to central banks that store a large amount of gold, with a lease period ranging from three to five years, and then sell it in the market. For gold miners, this is nothing more than selling the gold produced in three to five years at the current price, which is equivalent to cashing out future profits first, while the central bank "revitalizes" its assets. According to data released by the Bank of England in early December, London Gold Merchants alone leased 1,500 tons from the central bank.
If the central bank and cash sale are not included, the others have already been in short supply. The gold production in 1995 and 1994 was about the same as 2,787 tons, while the consumption was at the level of 40,000 tons, and the gold deficit was between 1,100 tons and 1,200 tons.
July 8, 1997: Western central banks have reduced their gold reserves in an orderly manner. According to data, the Dutch central bank directly sold gold, Belgium minted gold coins in disguise, and the Swiss National Bank planned to sell gold in installments worth about 5 billion US dollars to establish the "Holocaust gold" to show the country's regret of doing Nazi business during World War II. Last Thursday, Australia announced that it had sold about US$1.7 billion in gold in the first half of this year. Although the amount of gold sold was not large, it accounted for two-thirds of the country's gold reserves, indicating that gold was no longer regarded as the main currency and reserves. Australia ranks behind South Africa and the United States, and is the third largest producer of jin in the world.
