On May 17, the National Bureau of Statistics released changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April 2021. Data shows that the overall increase in the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities monitored by statistics has expanded, and the increase in the price of second-hand housing has increased and decreased.
In addition, the number of cities where new and second-hand housing prices rose month-on-month in April remained high, with 62 (the same as last month) and 54 respectively.
Experts said that the recent real estate market regulation policies continue to be strengthened, sending a strong signal to stabilize land prices, housing prices and expectations.
The price increase of new homes has expanded
National Bureau of Statistics announced that in April, the number of new homes rose month-on-month in April was 62 cities, the same as last month, and still the highest level in the past year.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
In terms of second-hand housing, the number of cities with month-on-month increase in housing prices dropped from 58 in March to 54, and remained at a high level.
Data source: National Bureau of Statistics
On a month-on-month basis, the sales price of newly built commercial housing in various tier cities has slightly increased month-on-month. It is estimated that in April, the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in four first-tier cities rose by 0.6% month-on-month, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. New commercial housing in 31 second-tier cities rose 0.6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The sales prices of newly built commercial housing in 35 third-tier cities rose by 0.4% month-on-month, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month.
Among them, Chongqing's new and second-hand housing rose first and second in the country, with an increase of 1.4% and 1.3% respectively. Guangzhou's new home price increase ranked among the top five in the country for six consecutive months, while second-hand home price increase ranked among the top five in the country for four consecutive months.
"Chongqing has indeed seen a lot of speculation on housing sources recently. This time, the overheating of land transactions in Chongqing has attracted everyone's attention. Guangzhou still has speculation recently, but it is expected that under the regulation, the increase in housing prices will narrow." Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of the E-House Research Institute, said.
In terms of second-hand housing, Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, said that as many cities increase regulation, housing price increases are expected to slow down in the future.
Mortgage interest rates have entered the upward channel
Starting from late January 2021, the mortgage market has seen a new round of tightening, gradually spreading from Guangzhou, Dongguan, Huizhou and other cities in the Pearl River Delta to popular areas in major real estate markets.
Recently, the Shenzhen Branch of China Construction Bank announced that it would raise the interest rate of the first home loan and the second home loan by 15 basis points and 35 basis points respectively. "It is expected that more cities will follow up in the future, among which cities with higher expectations of rising housing prices are more likely to raise interest rates." Shen Xin, a researcher at Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, said.
In fact, the first mortgage interest rate has entered an upward channel since February. Data from E-House Research Institute shows that the average interest rate for first-home mortgages in the country was 5.31%, which has been rising for three consecutive months. Shen Xin believes that if interest rates continue to rise, it will affect residents' enthusiasm for buying houses with loans.
In addition to the interest rate increase, Shenzhen's real estate market has been under a lot of regulation recently, such as cracking down on small property rights housing, illegal transactions of resettlement housing, and adjustment of industrial land in Longgang and Pingshan Districts to residential land. "Another downward cycle in Shenzhen's property market has begun, and it is currently only manifested as a decline in transaction volume, which is expected to be transformed into a decline in housing prices in the third quarter." Li Yujia, chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out.
Shen Xin further stated that various regulatory policies for real estate this year are more severe than in 2013 and 2016, so the high point of year-on-year increase in housing prices in 100 cities may be seen in the first half of the year.
Some hot cities may be the first to launch real estate tax pilot
Recently, the responsible persons of the Ministry of Finance, the Budget Working Committee of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the State Administration of Taxation presided over a symposium on the pilot work of real estate tax reform, and listened to the opinions of the responsible persons of the people's governments of some cities and some experts and scholars on the pilot work of real estate tax reform.
E-House Enterprise Group CEO Ding Zuyu pointed out that since this year, the regulators have mentioned "real estate tax" four times. Although real estate tax still takes a long time to be fully imposed, since the second half of 2020, the real estate market in some places has been in a state of "overheating". Therefore, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it may be a window period for promoting real estate tax legislation and reform. Pilot cities may quickly expand to "hot spots" core cities, and reflect certain policy strength.
"This stage may be a better time window for promoting real estate tax legislation and reform. Real estate tax is expected to become an important policy tool for fully implementing stable land prices, housing prices and expectations." Ding Zuyu said.
Chief market analyst Xu Xiaole, Shell Research Institute, said that real estate tax will crack down on housing speculation, reduce the occupation of real estate financial resources, and increase the willingness to rent existing housing sources. Therefore, real estate tax is not just a short-term means to curb market overheating and achieve "housing for living, not for speculation", but is a key step to breaking the current deadlock in the real estate market, and it is also a major institutional pillar of the "two more and one" housing system.
Ding Zuyu believes that judging from various statements and time nodes, it is a high probability that real estate tax will be implemented during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. However, implementation is still reflected in pilot cities, and some hot cities will take the lead in launching real estate tax pilot projects. In addition, from the market perspective, hot cities with relatively large housing prices in the short term may pilot the imposition of real estate tax.
Edit: Yesong
