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1. Preface
In the previous article, the application of passive component in the military industry was studied. In fact, one logic was mentioned that military-civilian integration is used to convert military to civilian use. After all, it seems that there is still a large space for domestic production in the civilian market. This study mainly aims to achieve the following goals: ① Industry knowledge learning; ② Recap of stock price trends in the past three years; ③ The key sectors and targets of
2. Basic information (non-key)
2.1 Definition and function
2.1 Passive components do not require power drivers (also known as passive devices), and they do not consume power themselves. They can only input signals to make amplification, oscillation, calculation and other responses, without external incentive units. Passive components are mainly divided into two categories: RCL and RF components, among which RCL accounts for about 90% of the total output value of passive components.
(1) capacitor : storage, smoothing, coupling and decoupling
storage refers to using stored charges to smooth the voltage even if the voltage changes smoothly, and coupling can block the DC current and only allow the signal components (acc current to pass). decoupling can bypass the noise components with high frequency.
capacitor mainly includes four types: tantalum electrolytic capacitors, aluminum electrolytic capacitors, ceramic capacitors and film capacitors , accounting for 7%, 32%, 53%, and 8%, respectively.
(2) resistor : voltage division, shunt, filtering and impedance matching
(3) Inductance: filtering, steady current and anti- electromagnetic interference
2.2 Market size and competitive landscape
According to ECIA statistics, the total market size of the global RCL in 2019 was US$27.7 billion, and the shipment volume was 540,000, of which output value of capacitors, inductors and resistors accounted for 73%, 10% and 17% respectively.
Japanese, the United States, South Korea and Taiwan manufacturers have technological advantages and scale advantages and occupy a monopoly position.
2.3 MLCC
Competitive landscape (highly concentrated): CR3 and CR5 reached 65% and 81% respectively. Murata has long occupied the world's number one throne with a market share of 31%. Followed by Samsung Mechanical and Electrical and Guoju in Taiwan, China, with market share of 19% and 15%, respectively. Sun Yudian and TDK account for the proportion of respectively. 13%, 3%. Domestic Sanhuan Group, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Yuyang, etc. also have certain production capacity, but the market share is relatively small. Downstream applications: consumer electronics, 5G base stations and computers account for 60%, followed by automobiles, home audio and video, industrials, etc.
2.4 aluminum electrolytic capacitors
competitive landscape (concentration): Japan's Kamei ranked first with a market share of 23%, Nigikang and Ruby ranked second and third, with market share of 17% and 10% respectively. As the global leader in energy-saving lighting, Aihua Group accounts for 8% of the market. Jianghai Co., Ltd. has performed well in the industrial-controlled aluminum electrolytic capacitor market.
downstream applications: industrial electronics account for 50%, consumer electronics account for 31%
2.5 Tantalum electrolytic capacitor
Competitive landscape (concentrated): Currently, the first market share of tantalum capacitor is Jimei (has been acquired by Guoju), occupying 35% of the market share, and the second is AVX (has been acquired by Kyocera ), with a share of 25%. Panasonic and Viagra account for 20% and 10% of the market share respectively. Domestic manufacturers still need to make breakthroughs in the field of civil tantalum capacitors. It is worth mentioning that Torch Electronics relies on agents to sell high-end tantalum capacitors in China.
2.6 film capacitor
competitive landscape (dispersed): Panasonic ranked first, accounting for 9% of the share, Kimi (acquired by Guoju), domestic Fara Electronics , and Japan's Nigikang all accounted for 8% of the market share, followed by 7% of TDK and 5% of Viagra.
Downstream applications: Wind power, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles are the three main downstream markets of thin-film capacitors.
2.7 inductance
Competitive landscape (concentration): In 2018, Japanese companies led by Murata, TDK and Sunsuodian occupied the top three market share, with CR3 exceeding 40%. Taiwanese companies Qilixin and Meilei have completed the merger in 2018, with a market share of 11%, ranking fourth, Shunluo Electronics ranked fifth with a market share of 7%, and CR5 is close to 70%.
downstream applications: From the perspective of sales, the mobile communications sector accounts for the highest proportion of 35%, industrial facilities applications rank second, accounting for 22%, and tablets and automotive electronics also occupy a place; from the perspective of shipment, the proportion of inductors applied to mobile communications reaches 55%, followed by computer-related equipment, accounting for 25% of shipments.
2.8 Resistance
Competitive Landscape (Concentration): CR5 reached 57%, and its market share was mainly occupied by manufacturers in Taiwan and Japan. Among them, Guoju Electronics accounts for 34%, ranking first in the world. Japanese manufacturers KOA, Rohm and Panasonic are 2 to 4, with market shares of 9%, 6% and 6% respectively. US manufacturer Vishay ranked fifth with a 2% share. Currently, the largest manufacturer of resistor in China is Fenghua Hi-Tech, but its market share is still relatively small worldwide.
Downstream applications: home appliances, consumer electronics, automotive electronics and communications fields
2.9 Domestic substitution
(the core logic of the industry, long logic, cannot be falsified in a short time, when the stock price rises, it is useless when it falls)
(1) Overseas large companies adjust their production capacity, gradually withdraw from the mid- and low-end market, focusing on high-end products
(2) The downstream demand side gradually shifts to the domestic market, The epidemic accelerates the transfer trend of passive components industry chain
3. Stock price trend review
3.1 Stock price trend (Shunluo Electronics, Fenghua Hi-Tech, Sanhuan Group, Jianghai Shares, Fara Electronics)
3.2 Upward stage ① (from 2019 to 2021): The downstream economy is rising, and the industry's inventory is over
- 5G The usage of passive components in mobile phones has increased significantly, and the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones, , increased
- , 5G base stations have significantly increased MLCC demand for ,
- , photovoltaic installation volume has increased, inverter, , usage (capacitor)
3.3 decline stage ② (March ~ May 21): The entire market draws down, following market , fundamental should not change much;
3.4 Upward phase ③ (May to July 21): Price increase + Q2 performance maintains high growth
3.5 Downward phase ④ (July to October 21): Consumer electronics prosperity turning point + channel price decline
0 The consumer electronics sector synchronously caused (passive components turning point later than consumer electronics), mobile phone order cuts caused market concerns
From a historical perspective, the price of passive components is greatly affected by supply and demand, showing cyclical characteristics (2015 and 2019 are obviously cyclical lows), and the historical revenue of leading companies has also shown negative growth.
21 Q3 industry began to destock. It can be seen that Fenghua Hi-Tech and Shunluo have seen growth rates significantly decline compared with Q2 since Q3 21. Jianghai Co., Ltd., which has not slowed down in Q3 (after the third quarter report, Jianghai's stock price trend was significantly better than Shunluo and Fenghua Hi-Tech) also showed a slowdown in Q4.
3.6 Upward stage ⑤ (October to December 21)
The usage of passive components in electric vehicles has increased significantly, and the resonance with the auto parts sector has surged again, but there has been differentiation. Fara Electronics and Jianghai Co., Ltd. have significantly increased and increased (Q3 performance growth rate is maintained, and the proportion of new energy-related businesses is high, at least Fara Electronics is like this), and the 22-year pullback is smaller;
3.7 downward stage ⑥ (January to March 22)
followed the market decline, The main reason is that the market risk preference changes in lead to a downward shift in the valuation center, and they are worried about domestic economic growth. The stock price reflects the expectation of a decline in performance growth in advance
worries about the lack of cores, upstream material price increases, etc., suppressing the sales of electric vehicles and mobile phones. In the context of destocking, the growth rate of downstream demand has decreased;
4. The industry's initial impression
printed circuit board and RCL are both Shenwan third-level industry components. The relationship between the two is a simple example of water cup and water. The printed circuit board is used to carry various components (passive components and active devices). There can be multiple components on a circuit board. Advantages of the
RCL industry: the domesticization rate is extremely low, the market share is mainly controlled in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and the mainland region has a small share; (also the main logic of the industry) Disadvantages of the
RCL industry: the industry has cyclicality, the joint influence of supply and demand, the prosperity of downstream application scenarios and the industry inventory level. If the two can resonate, it will usher in explosive growth (for example, in 2019 to 20, the stock price doubled in more than half of the time). However, as an outsider, the disadvantage is that the tracking is too difficult and the early entry time is high; consumer electronics (mainly downstream applications of passive components), but the elasticity of passive components is greater than that of consumer electronics. There are few listed companies with
RCL, and the more well-known ones are Fenghua Hi-Tech and Shunluo Electronics. Fara Electronics, which became popular with new energy vehicle in 21 years. In fact, several other companies have never heard of it before.
- Sanhuan Group: It is an electronic ceramic platform enterprise integrating vertical integration of "materials, equipment, and manufacturing"
- Fara Electronics: my country's leading film capacitor manufacturer, focusing on the film capacitor industry for more than 50 years, with a market share of about 8%, ranking among the top three in the world
- Jianghai Co., Ltd.: It is a domestic leading aluminum electrolytic capacitor enterprise, layout of film capacitors, supercapacitor
- Fenghua Hi-Tech: a leading domestic passive component leader, and its current business covers passive devices such as chip capacity, chip resistance, and chip sensing
From the perspective of price-to-earnings ratio percentage, the more alternative are Jianghai Co., Ltd. and Fara Electronics. What is the reason? Because they all have thin film capacitors, they are the most prosperous in downstream RCL applications when used in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power. Judging from the percentage of price-to-earnings ratio, Jianghai Shares and Fara Electronics are more alternatives. What is the reason? Because they all have thin film capacitors, they are the most prosperous in downstream RCL applications when used in new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power. I accidentally saw the top ten shareholders of Fara Electronics' 21-year annual report, Qianhai Kaiyuan accounted for four (the public fund champion in 2021), with a total of 6%. In Q3 and Q4 in 2021, the highest area of stock price increased its position, which is a high-level takeover? This kind of self-shelf is uncomfortable to fall.
Overview, before the consumer electronics prosperity has reached an upward turning point, passive components and PCBs are difficult to perform well, so you can pay attention to the structural opportunities. RCL mainly focuses on thin-film capacitors, which are two more core logics than RCL: (1) High downstream prosperity (new energy vehicles and photovoltaic wind power); (2) Increased penetration rate (replace aluminum electrolytic capacitor );
mentioned in the previous article that one of the logics of military-industrial enterprises is military-civilian integration. Is it easy for military enterprises to penetrate into the civilian market? The conclusion is difficult. The most important thing in the military industry market is performance, while the civilian market pursues cost-effectiveness (the balance of performance and price). At the same time, the demand in the military industry market is smaller than that of civilians, and there are large differences in scale, which cannot form an economies of scale.The Torch Electronics and Hongyuan Electronics in the civil market are still foreign brands.
Disclaimer: The article is only a research record and does not constitute investment advice. All views in the article represent personal positions only and may change and do not have any guiding role.
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