In 2011, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait signed the " Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement " (ECFA). Under this framework, more than 500 products on the island can be sold to the mainland with duty-free sales. This is also the concession made by the mainland for goodwill to benefit Taiwan, which was once jokingly called an "unequal agreement" by the people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
Since Pelosi's visit to , cross-strait relations have been highly tense. The mainland has implemented a series of opposition measures against the "Taiwan independence" elements on the island. However, this has also caused some farmers, fishermen and small and medium-sized enterprises to worry about whether the mainland has plans to cancel the ECFA.
With such questions, the Kuomintang Vice Chairman Xia Liyan went to the mainland and his delegation, Deputy Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council Chen Yuanfeng clearly informed that he did not want to see the deterioration of cross-strait relations affecting the early collection list of ECFA. From this we judge that there should be no similar problems at the moment, so the people on the island can rest assured.
The island economy is heavily dependent on the mainland, which is an irrefutable fact. Judging from the data from January to August this year alone, Taiwan's trade surplus with the mainland has reached US$104.74 billion. However, it is worth noting that Taiwan's exports to the mainland have slowed down significantly. As of August, Taiwan's exports to the mainland were US$161.07 billion, with an annual growth rate of 2.2%. In 2020 and 2021, the above data were 16% and 24% in the same period, showing a significant decline. According to data from the Taiwan financial department, Taiwan's exports to the mainland in August were US$15.117 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9%
is precisely because of the high dependence of the Taiwan economy on the mainland. Once the cross-strait conflicts are in a bad way, it will inevitably have an impact on the economic situation on the island. Since the People's Liberation Army's military exercises around Taiwan, similar concerns have always been accompanied by the island. Some analysts said that if the mainland intends to suppress Taiwan, there is no need to use force. Just using two steps of "surrounding the island" and "poverting Taiwan" will be enough to destroy the island's economy.
For example, during Pelosi's visit, the mainland announced the suspension of imports of Taiwan's citrus fruits, chilled leucorrhea , frozen horse mackerel, biscuits and candy, and prohibited the import of more than 100 Taiwanese market manufacturers from exporting products from mainland China.
As for the above-mentioned agricultural and fishery products, they generally have the characteristics of short storage period and strong substitutability. If the mainland lacks them, they should live their lives as well. However, once Taiwan’s fresh food cannot lose to mainland China, it is impossible to find a market for replacement in a short period of time. The farmers and fishermen on the island suffered some losses for this and blamed the DPP for inaction.
Western Mainstream media cleverly captured the public opinion on the island and expanded it, aiming to force various industries on the island, led by semiconductors, to move out of the West by spreading panic. The impact of this trick on the island's enterprises is still unknown, but this panic sentiment is truly passed on to foreign capital.
According to the data released by Taiwan’s financial institutions, foreign capital in Taiwan had net remittances of US$5.454 billion in August, while foreign capital net remittances from January to July totaled US$11.246 billion, with a cumulative net remittance of US$16.7 billion in the first eight months, setting the largest net remittance in the same period in history. It can be seen that the mainland’s countermeasures, under the strong exaggeration of Western media, have panic caused by foreign capital.
However, there are many hardliners on the island, and they are still optimistic about Taiwan's economic situation. Zeng Mingzong, the former head of Taiwan's financial institutions, is one of them. He claimed that Taiwan's foreign investment balance is still as high as US$212.855 billion, and less than one-tenth of the foreign investment has been withdrawn. In addition, the United States has raised interest rates significantly, and it is normal for foreign investment to flow to the United States and it is not worth making a fuss.
If we look at it from an economic perspective alone, Zeng Mingzong's words make some sense. But he ignored the impact of the geopolitical crisis on the economy. In the situation of confrontation between China and the United States and evil cross-strait relations, putting aside politics and talking about the economic situation is undoubtedly a manifestation of extremely short-sightedness.
As for the current situation, the mainland's economic countermeasures against Taiwan have still stopped at the "knocking" stage, and they cannot even be considered a warning. It not only retains the greatest kindness, but also leaves Taiwan with room for improvement. If the Taiwan authorities attach importance to public opinion, they should reflect on various bad behaviors of "independence" and correct their attitudes, seek cross-strait dialogue to promote cross-strait relations to return to the right track as soon as possible.
