Summary: The new LPR quotation "stand still"; People's Bank of China : Deepen the reform of interest rate marketization; the U.S. Treasury yield curve deepens, and institutions warn of the risk of recession.
—Toutiao Follow—
The new LPR quotation is "stand still", and the expected reduction of LPR quotation for more than 5 years is high. China's September 1-year LPR was 3.65%, and the 5-year and above varieties were 4.30%, both of which were the same as last time and in line with market expectations. Many industry insiders believe that under the background of stable growth, my country's monetary policy still has room for strength in the future. Especially in recent days, major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, and the reduction in liability costs will help banks compress and increase points. The possibility of LPR continuing to decline still exists. In the short term, the price of LPR for more than 5 years may be lowered separately again.
People's Bank of China: Deepen the reform of interest rate marketization. The Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank issued a document saying that the current interest rate of time deposits in my country is about 1% to 2%, and the loan interest rate is about 4% to 5%. The real interest rate is slightly lower than the potential real economic growth rate and is at a relatively reasonable level. It is the best strategy to leave room. The article points out that in the next step, the People's Bank of China will continue to deepen the reform of interest rates marketization, continue to release the effectiveness of LPR reform, strengthen deposit interest rate supervision, give full play to the important role of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates, promote the improvement of the market-oriented interest rate formation and transmission mechanism, optimize the central bank's policy interest rate system, give full play to the regulatory role of interest rate leverage, promote the optimal allocation of financial resources, create a good environment for high-quality economic development, and welcome the successful convening of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China with practical actions.
U.S. Treasury yield curve deepens, and institutions warn of the risk of recession. As the market expects the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again this week, the yield on US Treasury rose sharply on the 19th, and the inverted US Treasury yield curve continues to deepen. Analysts believe that the Fed's adoption of more radical monetary policy tightening and the continued pressure on the real estate market will make the US economic downturn last longer.
—Macro news—
National Bureau of Statistics: From 2013 to 2021, my country's service industry added value increased by 7.4% annually. The National Bureau of Statistics released a series of reports on economic and social development achievements on September 20. From 2012 to 2021, the added value of my country's service industry increased from 24485.6 billion yuan to 60968 billion yuan. Based on the constant price, the average annual growth of 7.4% from 2013 to 2021. From 2012 to 2021, fixed asset investment in the service industry increased from 16778.1 billion yuan to 36287.7 billion yuan. Since 2013, the proportion of total fixed asset investment has remained above 60% for ten consecutive years.
"explosive orders" have become "missive orders", and the "order shortage" in Southeast Asia comes a little quickly. Many people engaged in foreign trade export business in Southeast Asian countries said in an interview with Securities Times reporter that in recent months, they have indeed felt that orders have decreased significantly. The main reason is that the demand in Europe and the United States is reduced, but this is also related to the gradual stabilization of extraordinary orders in March and April this year. Some experts predict that this situation may continue until April next year.
National Health Commission introduced that as of the end of 2021, the national elderly population aged 60 and above reached 267 million, accounting for 18.9% of the total population. It is expected that this number will exceed 300 million during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, accounting for more than 20%, and my country will enter the stage of moderate aging. Around 2035, the number of elderly people aged 60 and above will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30%, entering the severe aging stage.
On September 20, the central bank carried out 14-day reverse repurchase operations of 2 billion yuan and 24 billion yuan, with the winning interest rates of 2.0% and 2.15% respectively, with a net investment of 24 billion yuan per day. This is the second consecutive trading day for the central bank to initiate a 14-day reverse repurchase operation. Some industry insiders believe that the peak of the monthly tax period and the long holiday at the end of the quarter are approaching, so the central bank's move is intended to maintain stable liquidity at the end of the quarter.
—Industry Observation—
Australia Lithium ore html The sixth auction price hits a new high in 3 years.On September 20, Australia's Pilbara Mining Company held its sixth spodumene concentrate auction this year. The final transaction price was US$6,988/ton, up 10% from the transaction price on August 2. According to Shanghai Nonferrous Network, after entering 2023, with the continuous production of many salt lakes and spodumene projects, the growth rate of lithium resource supply may accelerate, and the demand gap caused by the mismatch of supply and demand may be filled. At that time, lithium prices may gradually return to rationality as the supply and demand structure is corrected.
Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Focus on cultivating a batch of specialized and new "little giant" enterprises in the field of Beidou . On September 20, Xu Wenli, deputy director of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out at the press conference that in recent years, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has focused on promoting the high-quality development of the Beidou industry, continuously improving the Beidou industry chain, and expanding Beidou application in the mass consumption field with large scale, high proportion and wide influence, and achieving positive results. Xu Wenli pointed out that in the next step, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will continue to implement the "Several Opinions on the Promotion and Application of Beidou in the Field of Mass Consumption" in accordance with the decisions and deployments of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, and promote the high-quality development of Beidou industry.
The latest announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology! new generation information technology industry report card is here. Over the past decade, the annual growth rate of added value of my country's electronic information manufacturing industry has reached 11.6%; the business revenue of software and information technology services has increased from 2.5 trillion yuan to 9.5 trillion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 16%. my country has formed the world's largest production and sales scale, relatively complete categories and basically complete industrial chain. The overall scale of the electronic components industry has exceeded 2 trillion yuan. In 2021, the global output of polysilicon , silicon wafer , batteries and modules in the main links of the photovoltaic industry chain accounted for more than 70% of the global output; photovoltaic added 54.88 GW of installed capacity, ranking first in the world for nine consecutive years. The national standard for e-cigarettes is about to be implemented, and 7 A-share companies have "get their certificates". The national standard for e-cigarette will be implemented from October 1. At present, 7 A-share companies have "get their certificates" through their subsidiaries, including BYD , Jinjia Co., Ltd. , Shunhao Co., Ltd. , Dongfeng Co., Ltd. , Xiaosong Co., Ltd. , Hong Co., Ltd. , Jinlong Mechanical and Electrical , Jincheng Pharmaceutical , involving the production, sales, import and export of e-cigarette . In the view of industry insiders, the rule of law and standardization of the industry is beneficial to the e-cigarette industry in the long run, and listed companies can get better development opportunities at this time.
policy promotion and the peak season is approaching, and cement prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. With the introduction of measures to resume work and production of real estate projects in Zhengzhou, Taiyuan, Hefei, and Xianyang , "protecting and maintaining the delivery of buildings and stabilizing people's livelihood" has been further implemented substantively. Many listed companies in the cement industry said that as relevant policies are gradually implemented, the supply and demand relationship in the cement market will be further improved. The reporter noticed that some companies have taken active and effective measures to cope with the current market changes in the cement market. As an important building material, cement prices have shown signs of rising recently. Industry insiders said that it is currently the traditional peak season for cement, and under the promotion of relevant policies, the cement market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
According to the China Iron and Steel Association, in August, the domestic steel demand situation improved, steel production increased month-on-month, and steel prices stopped falling and rebounded. Since September, steel prices have fluctuated slightly. The main issues that need to be paid attention to in the later stage are: First, steel production has increased, and it is crucial to maintain stability on both sides of supply and demand. Second, the prices of coal, coke and scrap steel rebounded, and the task of reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the later period is still arduous.
Rice exporters are planning to raise prices! After India, the world's largest rice exporter, took the lead in raising the rice export threshold, Vietnam and Thailand, which are also major rice exporters, also plan to increase the rice export prices. In Europe, the local energy use situation is difficult, and the soaring energy prices have caused the fertilizer industry to cut production on a large scale.The agency believes that if the European energy crisis continues to ferment, the shortage of fertilizer supply in Europe may affect the sowing and growth of autumn crops, and the international food market may become more tense.
dental implant procurement is accelerated, and multiple parties work together to achieve "price reduction but quality reduction". According to the established schedule, various parts of my country have successively formulated and introduced new price policies for oral implants since September, and dental implants are about to usher in the era of centralized procurement and price reduction. Dental implant procurement is one of the work tasks of the National Medical Insurance Bureau in the second half of this year. At the National Organization's Centralized Procurement Work Conference and the Joint Procurement Office of Drugs and Consumables held recently, Chen Jinfu, deputy director of the National Medical Insurance Bureau, listed as the focus of the national organization's centralized procurement of medical services for oral implants, together with "actively promoting the centralized procurement of oral spinal consumables for centralized procurement of coronary stents in a timely and steadily promoting the unified consumables for the expiration of the coronary stents" as the focus of the national organization's centralized procurement work.
—Data Revealing—
Security and securities lending: On September 19, the margin balance between the two markets was 1587.876 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.082 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among them, the balance of financing was 1484.972 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.872 billion yuan from the previous trading day; the balance of margin trading was 102.904 billion yuan, a decrease of 210 million yuan from the previous trading day. Hikon Vision , Oriental Fortune , and CDebang financing net purchase amount ranked the top three, with net purchases of 297 million yuan, 208 million yuan and 188 million yuan respectively. C Debang, BYD , China Ping An net selling amount ranked among the top three, with net selling of 184 million yuan, 121 million yuan and 114 million yuan respectively.
Northbound funds: Northbound funds yesterday had a turnover of 78.899 billion yuan, and a net sales of 523 million yuan. Among them, Shanghai Stock Connect net sold 686 million yuan, and Shenzhen Stock Connect net bought 163 million yuan. In terms of active stocks, the net purchases of northbound funds include Dianqi Lithium Industry , Mide Group , Wuliangye , Wingtai Technology , HikTai Technology , Luxxx Precision , Luxxx Precision , respectively, with net purchase amounts of 1.057 billion yuan, 198 million yuan, 164 million yuan, 150 million yuan and 133 million yuan respectively. The net selling of northbound funds include CATL , BYD , Sunshine power , Yiyi Lithium Energy , Tongwei Co., Ltd. , Tongwei Co., Ltd. , and net selling amounts were 419 million yuan, 370 million yuan, 328 million yuan, 225 million yuan and 223 million yuan respectively.
Dragon Tiger List : Yesterday, the total net sales of institutional seat funds was about 485 million yuan. Among them, there were 13 stocks with net buying and 8 stocks with net selling. The stocks with the most net purchases in institutions are Fengyuan Co., Ltd. , with a net purchase amount of approximately 90.4495 million yuan; the stocks with the highest net purchases in institutions are Bairun Co., Ltd. , Ankai Bus , Shengtong Energy and other stocks. The stocks that institutions sold the most net were San Optoelectronics , with a net selling amount of approximately 688 million yuan. Among the top companies' net sales, there are West China Energy , Tin Packaging Co., Ltd. and other stocks.
Domestic Futures: Domestic Commodity Futures Most of the closing of the night market fell, energy and chemical products performed weakly, with pulp, styrene , fuel oil, No. 20 glue and glass falling by more than 1%. The black series fell across the board, with iron ore falling 2.11%, and coking coal falling 1.3%. agricultural products showed differentiation, bean 2 rose 1.12%, corn rose 0.78%, cotton yarn fell 0.54%, rapeseed meal fell 0.46%; Shanghai Futures Exchange basic metal futures rose and fell mixed, Shanghai tin rose 1.76%, Shanghai nickel rose 1.26%, stainless steel rose 0.47%, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.8%, Shanghai zinc fell 0.12%, and Shanghai copper fell 0.08%.
LME Futures: London base metals closed mixed, LME copper futures fell 0.38% to US$7724/ton, LME zinc futures fell 0.53% to US$3124/ton, LME nickel futures rose 1.08% to US$24860/ton, LME aluminum futures rose 0.18% to US$2255/ton, LME tin futures rose 1.1% to US$21175/ton, LME lead futures fell 0.66% to US$1872/ton.
—Company News—
Baoxin Technology : It plans to invest in the "HJT-perovskite stacking, perovskite battery " project.
xinwangda : It plans to invest 21.3 billion yuan in new energy power battery production base project.
Aikang Technology : The actual controller's 2.72% of the company's shares will be auctioned by the judicial system.
Baihong Industrial : Invest 518 million yuan to expand the production of the 300,000-ton polyester bottle tablet project in Vietnam.
Sanlianhongpu : Signed a contract for 217 million yuan in polyamide 6 polymerization project.
tianyuan Environmental Protection : Winning the bid for 250 million yuan to win the Jia County domestic waste incineration power generation construction project.
Sijin Intelligent : Shareholders plan to continue to reduce their holdings of the company by no more than 3.8%.
huiyun Titanium Industry : It plans to invest 633 million yuan to build a new energy material iron phosphate project with an annual output of 100,000 tons.
—Global market—
U.S. Stock Market: East Time on Tuesday, U.S. stock 3 three major indexes closed down collectively. On the eve of the Federal Reserve's interest rate resolution, investors chose to remain cautious, and they were worried that radical tightening policies might trigger a sharp drop in the market. Federal Funds Futures tracked by CME show that the market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve hike 75 basis points is 84%, and the probability of a 100 basis points is 16%. The remarks made by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the press conference after the resolution have attracted high attention from the market, and he may once again cause storms in the financial market. The market plummeted last month after Powell's speech, when Powell said the Fed would continue to raise interest rates until he was confident that inflation had been controlled, even if the move would ultimately hurt the economy. Investors are already basically hopeless about the Fed's policy shift, and now they are eager to figure out two things: how high interest rates will rise at the end of the rate hike and how long it will last at this level.
Hong Kong stocks : On Tuesday, Hong Kong stocks rebounded from a half-year low. The market transactions shrank to only HK$73.012 billion. Technology, new energy vehicles and gambling stocks ranked among the top gainers, Xepeng Motors rose nearly 9%. Catering stocks were differentiated, with Xiabu Xiabu rising by more than 13%, and Haidilao falling by nearly 8%. Taiwan weighted index closed up 0.86%.
International crude oil and gold: International oil prices fell across the board. Analysts said that the economic downturn and weak demand panic caused by hawkish interest rate hikes in major central banks in Europe and the United States have put pressure on oil prices. International precious metal futures generally closed down. Both the US dollar and US bond yields rose and put pressure on gold prices to fall.
RMB exchange rate : Onshore RMB closed at 7.0131 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 48 basis points from the previous trading day; the night trading closed at 7.0176. The RMB mid-price against the US dollar fell by 72 basis points to 6.9468, continuing to hit a low of more than two years. Traders said that the Fed is about to raise interest rates this week, US Treasury yields continue to rise, and the strong US dollar still suppresses the RMB. However, the market expects that the policy of stabilizing growth of will still be strengthened, and the steady economic recovery is still a key positive factor for the RMB to remain stable.
—Galaxy Strategy—
Overall performance: Yesterday, A-share index closed up collectively, but the trading volume was still sluggish. Shanghai Composite Index 0.22%, Shenzhen Component Index 0.69%, Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index 0.12%, ChiNext Index 0.7%, Science and Technology Innovation 50 index 0.98%. The transaction volume of the two markets was sluggish, hitting a new low this year. The net outflow of northbound transactions of the land port was RMB 522 million, and the net inflow of southbound funds was HK$1.756 billion. The central bank's net injection of 24 billion yuan in open market operations, and the money market interest rate rose slightly.
Hot topics: integrated die-casting , reducer , automobile lightweight, automobile thermal management , perovskite battery , etc. rose sharply; MLCC concept, ocean transportation, civil aviation, cross-border payment, etc. fell slightly.
Strategy Suggestion: has shrunk for two consecutive days, indicating that investors are unwilling to cut their losses at this position and sell down . people are stable and people are rising . If there is no further negative impact, the index may gradually stabilize, but the upward momentum still needs to accumulate and strengthen. If there are policies or external favorable factors, it can play a role in making a big move. Yesterday, the new energy track led the rise, and the decline in weight dragged down the index. Under the game of stock funds, there was no consensus on sector differences. Pay close attention to policies and external trends and wait for a turnaround. At this position, we can gradually increase our attention to low-valuation and high-quality leaders.
—Institutional Views—
style switches again! New energy vehicles are making a comeback. Huaxia Fund Manager Yang Yu made the latest analysis on the prospects of the automobile industry. Regarding the prospects of the automobile industry next year, Yang Yu believes that due to the impact of subsidy declines and the macroeconomic environment, there may indeed be a period of poor performance in the first half of next year. However, the stock price trend of the sector in the next year remains optimistic. The main reasons are as follows: First, the general direction of electrification and intelligence has not changed; Second, the competitive new model of electric car will continue to be launched next year, and oil vehicles will also have refunds and subsidies; Third, the global competitive advantage of leading companies has not changed; Fourth, due to the continued high growth in performance and the decline in stock prices, the sector's valuation has returned to the historical lowest level and returned to the valuation of the ordinary manufacturing industry. Therefore, Yang Yu said that he is still very confident in the future development of new energy vehicle . After the market experienced a sharp decline, increasing fixed investment is a better choice. He also hopes to give everyone confidence to go through this difficult time of continuous decline.
Oriental Fund : The domestic economic recovery trend is clear, and it is recommended to pay attention to the wind power and semiconductor equipment industries. 9htmlOn February 19, Oriental Fund released a view that judging from the overall valuation level of the current market major indexes, the market has relatively limited room for downward trend, and the risk and return of equity assets is relatively high, and the market is in the tail stage of adjustment. Looking at the long-term cycle, the current position is likely to be the bottom range in the next few years, and Oriental Fund is relatively optimistic about the market in the next year. Oriental Fund pointed out that the process of economic recovery may have some twists and turns in the future, but the trend of recovery is relatively certain. On the one hand, the experience in the past two years has shown that China's logistics resilience is among the best in the world; on the other hand, the effects of various policies to help enterprises alleviate difficulties or stabilize growth are still emerging, the cost pressure of mid- and downstream enterprises has improved significantly, and infrastructure efforts are still continuing.
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