US Supermicro Corporation fell sharply on October 7, closing at $58.44 per share, a drop of 13.87%, the lowest level since July 2020. The semiconductor company released its preliminary financial report for the third quarter, with revenue expected to reach $5.6 billion in the quarter, up 29% from the same period last year and down 15% from the same period last year, a far cry from the previous estimate of $6.7 billion.
As a semiconductor peer, Samsung Electronics html also released its third-quarter preliminary performance report on the 37th. The third quarter revenue was 76 trillion won, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year; the profit of html was 310.8 trillion won, a sharp drop of 31.7% year-on-year. Detailed information such as the complete financial report and the performance of various departments will be disclosed at the end of this month.
The growth of the global semiconductor market has been in a downward cycle since this year, and the reasons may mainly stem from the anti-globalization of the economy and the expectation of a decline in growth. my country is currently vigorously developing a domestic and foreign dual circulation strategy, and is committed to achieving the goal of independent controllable and domestic substitution in the field of semiconductor . Can this hedge against the current situation of weak global chip demand in ? This article will be analyzed in detail.
chip demand is hard to avoid
According to the data in April 2022, the global semiconductor industry's sales reached US$50.8 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month decrease of 2%. However, the semiconductor industry has entered a year-on-year and monthly decline of varying degrees since January 2022, and has basically entered a downward phase.
The demand for traditional electronic products has shrunk, and consumer chip demand has entered a recession period, and has gradually spread to upstream chip manufacturers. Judging from the situation of semiconductor companies' "order cuts", the semiconductor cycle basically peaked in the first half of 2022, and future order adjustments will last for a long time.
From a micro perspective, the inventory turnover days of Xiaomi Group and Lenovo Group have increased significantly. Compared with Xiaomi and Dell , Apple has a lower inventory turnover days, so it has a strong risk resistance.
From a macro perspective, the overall delivery time of global chips has been shortened, which to a certain extent reflects the pressure of enterprises to destock : from 27 weeks in June → 26.9 weeks in July → 26.8 weeks in August, the delivery time has been shortened for four consecutive months.
, and the delivery time of automotive-grade chips has increased: from 31.3 weeks in June to 32 weeks in July, the prices of some products are still rising. At the beginning of this month, NXP will raise its quotation for automotive chips. Currently, some industrial component companies have quotations of 10%, and automobiles have 20%, but the growth in demand for automotive intelligence cannot fill the reduction in demand for consumer electronics products.
domestic substitution space is huge, structural market is still expected to be expected
semiconductor materials and equipment are the basis of semiconductor manufacturing processes. The advancement of process technology has promoted the increase in the value of semiconductor materials, and demand has also increased accordingly. The market size grew rapidly, reaching US$64.3 billion by 2021, a year-on-year increase of 15.86%. By product category, the proportion of wafer manufacturing materials is higher than that of packaging materials, and the average number of 60% in 2018-2020 is exceeded. At present, domestic semiconductor materials are still mainly for back-end packaging materials, and front-end wafer materials still lack core advantages. With the continuous increase in China's wafer production capacity , the proportion of wafer materials is expected to continue to increase.
wafer manufacturing materials lack core advantages, have low self-sufficiency rate, and have a lot of room for domestic substitution. The external environment affects supply, internal expansion of production increases demand, policies stimulate domestic substitution, and semiconductor materials prices rise. In recent years, the supply and prices of semiconductor materials have been affected due to external factors such as the epidemic, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Sino-US relations. At the same time, the production capacity of mainland wafer factories has been continuously increasing, and the technological nodes have been continuously improving, and the demand for semiconductor materials has also increased significantly. Since 2014, the Chinese government has played a leading role in the overall industrial development, and the policy of localizing semiconductors has continued to promote. Internal and external factors jointly drive the price and quantity of domestic semiconductor materials to rise.
Tianfeng Securities is optimistic that downstream Yangtze Storage and other manufacturers will bring about the release and growth rate of semiconductor material ends after the expansion of production.
Suggestions to pay attention:
[ silicon wafer ]
Shanghai silicon industry: domestic semiconductor silicon wafer industry aircraft carrier, opening high-end SOI blue ocean builds core advantages
Liongwei: high-quality leader in the core track, "three-wheel drive" company growth
TCL Zhonghuan: Two fists strike to reshape the global silicon wafer pattern
[ Special Gas ]
Watt Gas : Domestic leader in industrial gas, with stable growth of main business
Nanda Optoelectronics: Leading enterprise in electronic special gas, coordinated development of three major business segments
Zhengfan Technology: pioneer in process medium system, equipment + materials + services to build core competitiveness
Jinhong Gas : Leading domestic private gas, the future development is promising
Kimet gas : Focus on developing electronic special gas business and actively promote ASML Certified
Heyuan Gas: a leading industrial gas company, actively developing electronic special gas
[ photoresist ]
Huamao Technology: Invest in Xuzhou Bokang, the leader of semiconductor photoresist, and the advantages of industrial chain integration are significant
Tongcheng New Materials : Acquisition of Beijing Kehua + Beixu Electronics to create semiconductor FPD photoresist platform
Jingrui Electric Materials: Import substitution of mid-range photoresist to create growth space
Feikai Materials: Leading ultraviolet curing and electronic chemicals, TFT-LCD Photoresist production capacity is to be released
[ photomask ]
Qingyi Optoelectronics : One of the largest domestic photomask suppliers, customer expansion achieves breakthrough
[CMP material]
Dinglong Co., Ltd. : Domestic CMP polishing pad core supplier, pan-semiconductor materials usher in increasing volume
Anji Technology: Domestic CMP polishing liquid leader, product categories gradually expand
[Wet electronic chemicals]
Shanghai Xinyang: Leader in the wet electronic chemical industry, with many products constantly breaking through, and a fixed increase in code photoresist
Zhongji core: Leader in the electronic chemical materials, G4 Wet electronic chemical quality control at the level or above, rich customer base
[ sputtering target ]
Jiangfeng Electronics : Leader in the domestic high-purity sputtering target industry, high-quality customers can grow in hand
Youyan New Materials: Leader in non-ferrous metal materials, subsidiary Youyan Yijin layout high-end target products
[ precursor ]
Yak Technology : Leader in the precursor industry, electronic materials platform is becoming increasingly molded
[third generation semiconductor materials]
Sanan Optoelectronics : Multi-wheel drive of compound semiconductor business, Accelerate the replacement of overseas suppliers
Tianyue Xianjin: the leading third-generation semiconductor silicon carbide substrate material manufacturer
Luxiao Technology: Successfully developed 6-inch conductive silicon carbide substrate sheet
Tony Electronics: vigorously layout the semiconductor field Silicon carbide semiconductor materials
