The island county mayor election was held on November 26. On the occasion of the 30-day countdown, the candidates seized the last opportunity to sprint. Whether this election battle was swallowed by the DPP by public opinion or the Kuomintang continued to decline is probably the biggest suspense in the island's political arena this year. This battle not only concerns the rise and fall of various parties, but also will inevitably affect the layout of the 2024 "general election".
run for election explosion: Taipei 12 people competed, Kinmen 66 people registered
In this county and city mayor election, many counties and cities experienced explosive elections. Take Taipei as an example, 12 people registered for election, setting the highest record since the mayoral election opened in 1994. Except for Jiang Wan'an, Chen Shizhong, Huang Shanshan and Su Huanzhi who are famous for their politicians, the other eight people are all political amateurs. It can be basically concluded that their votes will not be high, and they are all here to make a fuss.
In addition, there are 6 candidates in Hsinchu City, Yilan County , Kinmen County and Chiayi City. In Kinmen County, with a registered population of only 100,000, almost every county mayor election is a first-level war zone, and the competition for the registration of 6 candidates is considered a normal level. The top two votes usually have little to come, and the winner is often only a difference of more than 1,000 votes or a few hundred votes. Therefore, if you buy a ticket, the price of each vote is the highest in Taiwan. It is worth noting that among the candidates for mayor of Chiayi, there is a person named "Huang Hongcheng, Taiwan's Acheng world great man, President of the God of Wealth". He is a writer-born writer with the longest name in Taiwan. Every time he runs for the executive head and "legislator" election in Chiayi counties and cities, he comes out to run for the election. Although he loses every time, he is always happy and is a very weird person.
Keilung City, Tainan City, Miaoli County , Hungary County , Hungary County has 5; Kaohsiung City and Taoyuan City have 4; three registered people include Taichung, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, Pingtung, Hualien, Taitung, Penghu, and Mazu; the real KMT and DPP PK only include New Taipei City (Hou Youyi , Lin Jialong) and Chiayi County (Wang Yumin, Weng Zhangliang).
election situation analysis: The Kuomintang maintains a stable lead in 11 counties and cities
Although many counties and cities have more than three candidates, not many have the strength, and the blue and green parties should sweep the vast majority of seats.
In the county and city mayor election four years ago, the Kuomintang achieved an unprecedented victory, winning 16 seats (of which Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu was later removed), most of whom would be re-elected this year. In view of the poor governance environment of the DPP, the Kuomintang itself evaluated that it has led steadily in 11 counties and cities including New Taipei, Taichung , Chiayi City, Hsinchu County, Changhua, Nantou, Yunlin, Hualien, Taitung, Kinmen and Mazu. Among them, Ma Zu's Kuomintang nominated two people to run for election, but due to the huge gap in blue and green territory in the area, DPP candidate Li Wen basically has no possibility of profit. In addition, the Kuomintang candidate Xu Shuhua, the Kuomintang Nantou County Mayor, passed the "paper system" and the election situation has also stabilized.
DPP has an advantage in four counties and cities, namely Tainan, Kaohsiung, Chiayi County and Pingtung. It is worth noting that in response to the Pingtung election, a recent poll showed that although Zhou Chunmi of the DPP led the Kuomintang’s Su Qingquan , it surprised the outside world within the error range. The DPP has been in power in Pingtung for more than 20 years. In recent years, the green camp has been far ahead in the issuance of voters. Whether voters have become aesthetically fatigued and have the idea of "changing the party and watching it". This is a major highlight of this election.
In addition, Lin Zimiao, a Kuomintang-owned Yilan County Magistrate, was previously accused of being involved in corruption, and his election situation was once detested. However, according to recent polls (including green media), Lin Zimiao still maintains the lead. Party officials evaluated that under the advantages of current resources and local organizations, they should be able to pass the test. The original rumor that the grassroots division was rumored to be divided, the county deputy speaker Chen Shuangquan, who failed to win the nomination of the county magistrate, returned to the team to take charge of the county party committee's military talisman. The local government has successfully integrated and the election situation is relatively optimistic.
The most eye-catching thing about this election are the four cities in northern Taiwan: in Taipei, Jiang Wan'an, Huang Shanshan and Chen Shizhong fought fiercely, with Jiang leading the various polls; Taoyuan and Keelung have the lead in the blue and green elections, and the election situation is tense; Hsinchu is the only county and city that the "third force" is expected to win. In the sluggish situation of the blue and green elections, Gao Hongan of the People's Party is like a dark horse, and the polls are currently maintaining a stable lead.
Straits Guide Reporter Xue Yang
