Don’t waste a super-large crisis, welcome the opportunity once in a lifetime
mutant viruses are increasing and more
still remember when the Omicron mutant strain appeared in the second half of last year, Westerners were excited.
is said to have significantly decreased toxicity. Although the transmission power is improved, people who are recruited may gain immunity to cope with the future viral environment. To sum up, it is to determine that the emergence of Omicron means that the great liquidity of this century has reached its peak and everything is coming to an end.
At that time, the domestic tangible hand was very cautious about this view and did not dare to follow it. He even hyped this theory excitedly overseas, and he still tried his best to clear it.
However, after the emergence of Omicron's sub-mutation BA1, the next BA2 began to rage around the world. This year, the static management of Shanghai's entire region was caused by this thing.
It hasn't been long since then, and the more awesome BA5 has appeared in developed economies such as Europe, America, Japan and South Korea. This virus can escape neutralizing antibodies, so it is easy for those who have been infected and those who have received the past version of the vaccine to be infected again. Not only that, it has stronger transmission power and stronger toxicity.
Therefore, European and American countries, which were originally labor-strength, are now even short of people.
This summer, on the one hand, the energy crisis caused by the secondary disaster of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, everyone is suffering, and on the other hand, BA5 is starting to rage again. How do you live this life?
That's fine, India has released a brand new submutation strain of Omicron, BA2.75, which is said to be more powerful, has a stronger ability to evade neutralizing antibodies, and it has the possibility of replacing BA5 into the world's mainstream new mutant virus in the future.
From this we can see that the so-called global epidemic has entered the top turning point of is pure nonsense. Considering that , the boss of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. , Fauci, , was caught, so we will not post emotional swearing quotes.
As of now, BA5 has been detected in China, and the cruelty of the entire Omicron strain is that it can quickly spread more than 1,000 people in 10 to 11 days. Once this level of magnitude is broken, it will be difficult to block the transmission chain later. This means that the precise epidemic prevention in the past two years is of little significance.
Then there are many other means such as tough isolation and blocking.
Therefore, the Shanghai people around me are all dizzy recently. If you scan the code, you may be called at any time, "Comrade, I belong to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention..."
virus mutates faster and faster, is more and more toxic, and can also escape antibodies in the body. The epidemic prevention strategy in the past two years is facing unprecedented tests.
Assuming that the virus will evolve and mutate in the future according to this increasingly fierce trend, what should we do next?
Perhaps at this time, we can only express our sigh at this moment with the most widely used words in Shanghai:
euros,
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Because production control is easy to do, consumption scenarios are completely hit, so why do you have to eat, drink, play and spend the party?
From this perspective, we can achieve GDP in the second half of this year to reach 5.5%, and don’t force 5.5% for the whole year. Because the pandemic may become long-term, it is far from time to time when all the bullets are fired.
Look at Europe and the United States again, it is actually a good mirror.
At the beginning of 2020, almost all major economies fired to save the market and bullets, with a momentum like a sperm on the brain.
As of now, not only are there few tools available for rescue, but there is very limited space for use, but more importantly, taking drugs is too fierce now, the cost is too high.
Crazy inflation and uncontrollable economic recession trends are all obvious to anyone with a discerning eye.
At this time, Biden played three cards to save the market, and each one was disgusting.
The first card, desperately poked Russia, successfully arched the fire, Then, Russia countered, and now the world is kidnapped by the energy crisis and food crisis.
second card, desperately put the hook on the rabbit, the war between China and the United States continues to escalate, is just the missile launch, and naturally refuses to help the United States bear any inflationary pressure, and will not desperately add leverage to let Americans take advantage of our leverage traffic bonus .
3rd card, let Fed play strong US dollar. This practice is even more shameless, so here is a plate for everyone.
Originally the market was worried that Fed rate hike balance sheet reduction caused US total demand to stretch, which in turn impacted the world.
However, the Fed can ensure a soft landing when it is now in anti-inflation, even if a hard landing happens a little later.
Therefore, the Federal Reserve and White House cooperate to directly detonate the strong US dollar, allowing funds from most other regions of the world to divert back to the United States, which is equivalent to directly hitting the total demand of various countries. This can not only extend the life of the United States (maybe a soft landing), but also allow the United States to experience recession later than most regions around the world, and can also lower the prices of imported goods through strong US dollars and thus crack down on inflation.
Simply put, a fellow Taoist will die, and I will not die.
euro USD parity, the yen depreciates wildly, and the three-kill pattern of various stocks, foreign exchange and debts in Latin America and Asia all reveal the awesomeness of the US dollar sickle.
Please recall our article from the end of last year to the beginning of this year. At that time, we accurately predicted that the Federal Reserve and the White House teamed up to fight hard to raise interest rates and reduce the balance sheet while igniting the strong dollar, allowing savings from other regions of the world to flow in, and hedge the liquidity crisis problem in the US market caused by the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy. Now, our analysis and judgments that were more than half a year ago are being logically fulfilled! ! !
Of course, there is a bug in this model:
Global industrial chain melee + A new round of epidemic surges
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Besides, the epidemic has been going on for two years, Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy is not the last one, and it will not be the worst one.
Secondly, the global industrial chain melee means that the efficiency (growth rate) of the global economy of is worse, and the operating cost of is higher.
Therefore, the United States can continuously divert overseas funds backflow and fill in the pit, but this also means that it continues to release water in disguise on the basis of already exaggerated inflation (transfer overseas funds backflow).
So, how to control this inflation?
The most important thing is that the reason why the U.S. successfully rescued the market is because China cooperated and relaxed.
The logic is that the United States is equivalent to central bank , the Chinese central bank is equivalent to commercial banks, and China's manufacturing industry is equivalent to the real economy; the United States' water release is equivalent to the central bank's water release, and the Chinese central bank also releases water together is equivalent to the issuance of credit to the real economy, and the total demand suddenly rises.
However, now rabbits are all kinds of defense against the United States, and Russia has started a hybrid energy economy war in the summer. If you have any questions, check the situation of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline.
How to cut the US dollar sickle?
Domestic massive debt repayment of principal and interest and the ever-increasing new fiscal expenditures are not waiting for anyone. If you cannot get enough overseas wealth to fill the pit, you can only explode directly later.
From this perspective, the previous high living standards of Europe and the United States were produced by the pile of various debts and the hard work of production subsidies for backward countries.
Nowadays, both factors have problems, and the possibility of subsequent poverty in Europe and the United States is becoming increasingly greater.
Although the average person who has fallen back into poverty in Europe and the United States may still be higher than ours, this is not something that the locals can withstand.
Suppose that it was originally 500,000 yuan a year, but now it has suddenly become 300,000 yuan. No one can stand this.
is also the reason. The United States is now cutting off its own allies. There are too many SBs, so it won’t work without cutting.
At this time, the United States began to shout out our familiar views to its allies:
core consciousness , aligns consciousness , and to improve
But the problem is that if this harvest is within half a year, Europe and Japan will not be able to withstand it, and their internal pressure will explode.
At this time, the epidemic surged again, life was suddenly gray, and the future seemed to be hopeless.
As people cut, they began to go crazy and became more and more extreme as they gradually returned to poverty.
What’s more troublesome is that Europe was originally the world’s largest populist super base, full of all kinds of zombies who eat welfare.
When this power continues to accumulate, considering the extremely crazy gap between the rich and the poor in the world, this round of global economic missiles may make all countries dying of ecstasy, and their cliffs are so cool that they doubt their lives.
As an individual, guard the small family, love everyone, embrace Noah's Ark in the assets, and strive to travel through this madness.
Things that make money can be high-profile, and everything else is as low-profile as possible!
Embrace China's core assets steadily and take off with the national fortune. Any idea of riding on the fence is stupid!
Author: A Sen, independent economist and independent investor
