Liu Deyin has stated many times: "Huawei's orders are not important, and the lost share can be made up soon!" Now it has sent out an "emergency signal", which also confirms the importance of Huawei's orders. After making many adjustments, expenses have been lowered to US$36 billion. Where should TSMC go?
chip field market trend has changed
Liu Deyin stated in an interview: "Building a de-beautified production line is not the current goal of TSMC. At this stage, what we are pursuing is the ultimate process and technological leadership." But unexpectedly, after entering 2022, the market trend has completely changed, and this solution is no longer applicable! The development of
smartphones has entered a bottleneck period, without any disruptive technology, and consumers' enthusiasm for replacing phones is also declining. After using 5nm chips, there has been an overperformance situation, which can be maintained for at least 3-5 years without replacing phones, which directly leads to a sharp decline in sales of mobile phones.
According to the preliminary estimates of professional institutions, the sales of Android phones will fall by 170 million units next year, which means that the demand for advanced processes is also declining. SK Hynix announced that there will be no plans to expand the capacity of next year, and the reduction of expenditure has reached an exaggerated 70%-80%.
, and TSMC has long received "red flags" and has begun to lay out plans to reduce expenditures. It has lowered its capital expenditure twice, each time being reduced by more than US$4 billion, and the total expenditure after adjustment will be less than US$36 billion, and it has also announced the shutdown of some EUV lithography machines. Obviously, the inventory of advanced processes at this stage is beyond expectations.
. The evolution of this market direction mainly originated from the decline of Huawei's mobile phone business. After the discontinuation of Kirin chips, Huawei also lost the strength to "challenge" with Apple in the mobile phone field, which also led to no competition in the high-end mobile phone field. The new iPhone lacks innovation. Other mobile phone manufacturers have no place to "imitate", which naturally slows down the development of the entire industry.
and after the release of Mate 50, we felt the return of "innovation". In addition to satellite communication technology, super transit stations, energy-concentrating pump technology, Hongmeng 3.0 system, etc., are all subversive technologies, which also directly stimulated Apple's to move forward. Satellite communication technology was only added under the stimulation of Huawei.
But unfortunately, Kirin chips failed to return. Apple doesn’t take the chips that use Qualcomm at all. Therefore, iPhone 14 does not use 3nm chips, and only the Pro version uses an upgraded version of 4nm A16 chip. In the view of Cook , there is naturally no need to upgrade without competitors, which has accelerated the current situation of decline in mobile phone sales.
Huawei's value should not be underestimated.
. The decline in advanced process chips is naturally linked to the loss of Huawei's orders. Benefiting industry competition is the "lubricant" to promote the development of technology. Apple is the dominant one, and corresponding problems are destined to arise. For TSMC, the value of Huawei's orders is not only reflected in revenue. In addition to the decline in smartphone sales, PC sales also declined severely. Sales fell back to ten years ago. AMD, Nvidia, Intel and other companies all expressed the problem of excessive inventory. These chip manufacturers are shrinking orders, and the biggest loss is naturally TSMC.
TSMC has begun to gradually shut down EUV lithography machines to reduce the occurrence of idle capacity. Wei Zhejia also persuaded employees to go back to accompany their families. You should know that this stage is the moment when Apple chip orders are at its peak. If all employees’ work needs cannot be met at this stage, let alone the subsequent situation, there is a high probability of layoffs.
Currently, US companies' orders account for 72% of the share. TSMC, which has lost its free shipping rights, cannot receive orders from international companies at all. The chain reaction of over-reliance on US companies has occurred. Samsung 's 3nm process has been mass-produced, and TSMC will have to wait until the fourth quarter at the earliest.
Currently, Huawei has completed a multi-field layout, including 5GToB business, smart cars, Internet of Things and other technologies, and has achieved the previous breakthroughs. The subsequent demand for chips will increase exponentially, but the good news is that only mature process chips are needed.
At present, 14nm mass production has been achieved in China. As long as the construction of fully independent production capacity is achieved, relying on Huawei's independent chip stacking process, it can meet all chip needs. TSMC should regret its original decision. What do you think about this?
