Reporter | Anjing
There are only two weeks left before the US Congress midterm elections. Former President Trump hinted that he was preparing to participate in the 2024 presidential election in an event to canvass votes for Republican .
Current President Biden also revealed his intention to participate in the 2024 election in an interview. New polls show that if the US presidential election is held, Trump's approval rating will be slightly higher than Biden.
Before the presidential election showdown, the November 8 midterm election was the most urgent test for the Democratic and Republicans.
House seats are almost certain to win control due to high inflation and voters’ concerns about economic issues. The competition in the Senate is full of uncertainty, and the most competitive Georgia , Pennsylvania and Nevada will become key states.
Trump VS.Biden?
According to Capitol Hill news report, last Saturday, Trump participated in the Texas campaign to stand up for Republican candidates. In his speech, Trump once again claimed that he had won the 2020 election.
Trump has been accusing Democrats of stealing the results of the 2020 election, and the House of Representatives' investigation committee members of the Capitol Hill riots accused Trump of spreading rumors of the stolen election even though he knew he had lost the election.
Trump said he participated in two elections, winning both times, and the result of the second time was better than the first time. "In order for our country to succeed, be safe and prosper again, I may have to do it again."
Trump has not officially announced his participation in the 2024 election. Earlier this year, Trump allies revealed that he may announce his candidacy before the midterm elections. But once a candidacy is announced, Trump will need to announce his financial situation as required by the Federal Election Commission, and the sponsorship he receives from individual funders will also have a limit on.
Former Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway revealed earlier this month that Trump may wait until after the midterm elections to announce his candidacy around Thanksgiving.
Coincidentally, Biden said in an interview with the media last Friday that he has not made a formal decision on whether to participate in the 2024 election. But Biden added: "I intend to run again, and we still have time to make a decision."
Biden hinted that Trump may return to White House is one of his intentions to run. Next month, Biden will turn 80. Trump is 76 years old.
Harvard /Harris Poll poll released on Monday showed that if both Biden and Trump participate in the 2024 presidential election, Trump's approval rating is 45%, slightly higher than Biden's 43%.
Before considering the presidential election, Trump also needs to respond to a series of investigations, prosecutions and summons.
Last Friday, the Capitol Hill Riots Commission formally issued a subpoena requiring Trump to go to Congress or testify via video. The hearing will begin on November 14.
If Trump refuses to attend the hearing, the House of Representatives will be able to vote to determine whether he defies Congress. If the vote is passed, the Justice Department can sue him. Trump's former "national tutor" Bannon was convicted of contempt of Congress for refusing to attend the hearing, and was fined $6,500 and imprisoned for four months.
American media believes that Trump can file a legal lawsuit against the commission's subpoena and delay the matter until the new Congress takes office. By then, as long as the Republicans take control of the House, the Capitol Hill riot investigation committee will be disbanded.
Another difficult problem that Trump needs to solve is the Ministry of Justice's investigation into the seizure of confidential documents by his private home, Mar-a-Lago Manor, which involves three counts of violation of the espionage law. The relevant charges will face imprisonment.
Who will win the Senate?
This year's Congress midterm election has become a test ground for Trump to test his own influence. He endorsed more than 200 Republican candidates, involving 39 of 50 states in the United States.
This midterm election will reselect all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. In terms of seat allocation, the number of seats per state in the House depends on the state's population size; but the Senate is two seats per state, and it has nothing to do with population size.
In previous years' midterm elections, as a balance between voters' power over the government, the president's party is likely to lose his seat. Given that the United States is experiencing the worst inflation in 40 years, it is basically a foregone conclusion that the Democrats have lost control of the House of Representatives.
Cook political report statistics show that if the House of Representatives is re-elected, the Republican Party will firmly win 188 seats and the Democratic Party will firmly win 162 seats. With the possibility of winning and dominant seats in the campaign, the Republican Party can win a total of 211 seats and the Democratic Party 192 seats.
The remaining 32 seats are in a fierce state of competition, and both parties have a chance to win them. However, 22 of them are in the districts currently under the Democratic Party, including even the two districts of the Democratic Base Camp New York State .
Comprehensive poll as of October 24 showed that 22 of the 35 seats re-elected in the Senate will not turn around. The Democrats will occupy 44 seats in the Senate and 43 seats in the Republican Party. Currently, the two parties each hold 50 seats in the Senate, and with Vice President Harris' vote, the Democrats have a slight advantage.
The other 13 seats that participated in the re-elected election are in a bipartisan battle, involving 13 states including Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina , Wisconsin , Ohio , Arizona , Florida and other 13 states.
Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada , Ohio , Wisconsin, Arizona are all regarded as key states that can determine the outcome. Among them, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada have attracted the most attention, and the two parties have also invested the most campaign funds in these three states. AdImpact, an ad tracking company, shows that both parties invested $197 million in the Senate elections in Georgia, Nevada invested $120 million and Pennsylvania invested $112 million.
In the most expensive state of Georgia, Democrat and current Georgia Senator Raphael Warnock invested $40 million in advertising alone; his rival, Republican candidate Herschel Walker, invested only $8 million in advertising.
Warnock and Walker are both African-Americans. Warnock is the first African-American senator in Georgia; Walker is a well-known football star in Georgia and has no political experience. But Walker is an old friend of Trump and has Trump's support.
During the campaign, Walker was plagued by scandals and was revealed that although he was on the surface, he had paid for his girlfriend's abortion; Warnock used the campaign slogan to protect abortion rights and suffrage rights. At the beginning, Warnock had a clear advantage in the polls, but at present, the gap between the two has narrowed. Warnock's average approval rating is 47.8%, and Walker's 45%. A similar plot of
was also staged in Pennsylvania. The Democratic candidate is the state's lieutenant governor John Fetterman, and the Republican candidate is Mehmet Oz, a star doctor with no political experience, who has also received Trump's support.
Fetmann was far ahead in the polls at the beginning, and even after he was forced to interrupt his campaign due to a stroke, his support rate was still far higher than Oz. But now, the gap between the two has narrowed. Fettman's approval rating was 47.6%, while Oz rose to 45%.
Nevada is the state most likely to be reversed by the Republican Party. Cortez Masto, a current senator in the state, has fallen behind in the polls. Previously, CNN News' survey in Nevada showed that 44% of voters in the state believe that the economy is the most important, and only 14% of voters believe that the right to abortion is the most important.
currently has a 45.8% approval rating, while its Republican rival, former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, rose to 46.8%. Lasott was also endorsed by Trump.
Just as the Republican candidate chases Democrats in a poll, a model released by data analysis website Five Thirty Eight on the 24th predicts that the Democrats will still win 55 seats in the end and retain control of the Senate.
predicts that parties that can win two of the most competitive states in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Georgia will gain control of the Senate.
