According to the latest estimate released by market research agency Counterpoint, in the first half of next year, TSMC's 7-nanometer and 6-nanometer capacity utilization rate will fall to 80%-90%.
Counterpoint data shows that TSMC's 7-nanometer and 6-nanometer process processes contributed nearly 30% of the company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2022. However, as the market demand for smartphones and personal computers weakens, it has affected TSMC's capacity utilization rate.
The agency's data in 2022 shows that smartphones and high-performance computers account for 32% and 38% of TSMC's 7-nanometer box 6-nanometer process respectively, and the remaining application areas are automobiles, IOTs and data centers.
research agency Gartner predicts that under the influence of global economic uncertainty and inflation crisis, as the biggest driving force for chip market growth, global smartphone sales are expected to fall by more than 7% this year.
Gartner analyst Sheng Linghai also told the First Financial reporter: "Due to the weakening of demand, TSMC is facing an increase in inventory, and now the demand from small customers is mostly."
Another person from TSMC's upstream chip raw material supplier told the 1First Financial reporter: "On the one hand, due to the decrease in chip demand used by Nvidia for mining, and on the other hand, due to the weakening of personal computer demand, TSMC may temporarily experience the production capacity is not full."
However, TSMC's 3-nanometer production line is not expected to be affected, which is mainly benefiting from the demand of Apple major customers. Recently, there has been news that TSMC will exclusively occupy the big order for Apple's new M2 processor. Despite sluggish demand for personal computers, Apple still plans to launch a number of new phones in the next few months.
In this regard, Sheng Linghai analyzed to the First Financial reporter: "Relying on a single large customer may not be a good thing for TSMC."
TSMC Chairman Liu Deyin said last week that the semiconductor industry is facing more severe challenges, and the chip industry is ready to deal with the decline in demand. Last week, TSMC cut its 2022 annual investment budget by at least 10%, and is more cautious about short-term demand in the future. However, Liu Deyin predicts that the output value of in Taiwan's chip industry this year is expected to continue to increase by one fifth of year-on-year.
Last week, Belen Garijo, CEO of German Merck , also said: "Due to the severe chip shortage, Merck customers are increasing production capacity for the future, although demand for smartphones is currently weak." Merck is also a supplier of TSMC. In the second quarter of this year, Merck's electronics division's semiconductor manufacturing-related business grew by 20%, close to 1 billion euros .
