text/Yang Xiaoyu
edit/Qia Fei
Brazil The most torn election in history came to an end.
On the evening of October 30th local time, the majority of votes in the second round of the Brazilian presidential election have been counted. According to statistics from the Brazilian Higher Election Court (TSE), the Labor Party candidate won the general election, thus ending the current president Bolsonaro 's dream of re-election. This will be Lula's third time as president of Brazil.
There were two rounds of votes in this election. In the first round of votes held on October 2, Lula won 48.4% of the votes and Bolsonaro was 43.2%, neither of which exceeded half, so he entered the second round of votes. Several recent polls show that Lula has been ahead of Bolsonaro.
Polling agency AS/COA data shows that in the second round of exit polls for the Brazilian presidential election, the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro continues to narrow. After the results of
are released, the Brazilians’ most concerned issue is not who will win, but whether the losers will accept the election results. This is due to the continuous criticism of the country's electronic voting system during the elections, accusing election officials of being enemies of him. He even publicly called on the Brazilian army to stand on his side and told his tens of millions of supporters to be "prepare for combat."
This has caused concern to the outside world that Bolsonaro will imitate his "idol" and former US President Trump 's style to the end. If this is the case, a bloody battle will inevitably be inevitable. Will Bolsonaro follow Trump's approach and encourage his supporters to occupy the Brazilian Congress and even the presidential palace, which will lead to more violence?
Lula and Bolsonaro
Will Brazil hit Capitol Hill?
On the evening of October 28th local time, 77-year-old Lula and 67-year-old Bolsonaro held the last before the election on the country's highest-rated Globo TV station, attacking each other for two hours, and their words were filled with words such as "the lie king", "thieves and robbers", and "nervous disorders". Lula accused Bolsonaro of ineffective governance, while Bolsonaro continued to argue about Lula's "corruption issue". There are comments that this has prevented the two candidates from showing voters their governance plans for the next four years.
This campaign can be said to be the most disgraceful time in Brazil's modern history, with both sides resorting to false information and despicable attacks. Over the past month, Lula's team has tried to connect Bolsonaro to pedophiles and cannibalism, while Bolsonaro has tried to portray Lula as a Satanist, forcing Lula to clarify that he "has no agreement with the devil and has never spoken to the devil."
On October 28, Lula and Bolsonaro attended the last television debate before the second round of votes.
As the second round of voting day approaches, Bolsonaro's re-election campaign appeals to the Brazilian Higher Election Court (TSE), claiming that it is a victim of "election fraud" on several Brazilian radio stations. On October 26, Alexander de Moras, chairman of the High Election Court, rejected the team's request for investigation on the grounds of lack of "reliable evidence" and said it "intentionally disrupts the second round of elections." It is reported that the High Election Court is preparing for Bolsonaro's negative result, and is expected to incite supporters to oppose the vote.
This month's fake news and excessive publicity have also caused great headaches for Brazil's election agencies. The Higher Election Court said on October 29 that the court will open a "fact check channel" online where voters can view the latest information in real time and report fake news to it. Given the mixed social media information, Brazilian lawmakers have also granted the High Election Court unilateral power to force tech companies to remove misinformation within two hours of content release.
At the same time, Trump posted a message to stand up for Bolsonaro, calling him "a great and respectable leader, and a broad-minded good man." In the same comment, Trump called Lula "a madman in the extreme left wing of and will immediately destroy your country and all the achievements created by President Bolsonaro."
questioned that the election process was not the only thing that Bolsonaro and Trump had in common: they both ran as outsiders in politics, promising to fight the political elite; both encouraged nationalism and supported gun control, and both dominated social media.
On March 19, 2019, then-US President Trump welcomed Brazilian President Bolsonaro to the White House.
Researcher at the Latin American Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Executive Director of the Brazilian Research Center, Zhou Zhiwei analyzed to " Phoenix Weekly " that Bolsonaro's far-right conservative identity has strong similarities with Trump. During the 2020 US election, the conspiracy theory was prevalent among the far-right forces of the Republican Party . Such ideas and logic are also deeply rooted in Bolsonaro and his voters, making them believe that there must be conspiracy in the reality that does not serve their own interests.
So, will there be an incident like the riots on the US Capitol Hill last year in Brazil?
Zhou Zhiwei believes that judging from Bolsonaro's latest performance, his attitude has changed. "I noticed that in the last television debate before the election, Bolsonaro mentioned that 'whoever wins more votes will win'," he explained. "This can be seen as Bolsonaro's acceptance of reality in a certain way. Because he knew that Lula's advantage is more obvious and it is difficult to change. In addition, Brazil's two major power agencies (legislative and judicial) are more determined to maintain the democratic order of the country, and the military does not agree with Bolsonaro's imitation of Trump. I think pressure from all aspects has forced him to change his position."
"In short, Bolsonaro today cannot meet the situation Trump had at that time." Zhou Zhiwei said, "After the defeat, Bolsonaro may be entangled in his words. Some related cities and regions may also have some riots, but it is unlikely that there will be major events like the United States' impact on Capitol Hill."
On January 6, 2020, Trump refused to accept the election results and called on supporters to occupy the US Capitol Hill, causing "Capitol Hill riots."
The two candidates competed until the last minute
The Brazilian election this year's Brazilian election has been emerging one after another, surpassing the records in previous years. According to statistics from Brazil's non-governmental organizations, in the country, there is a political violence every 26 hours this year.
On the day of the first round of voting on October 2, two military and police officers were shot while maintaining order near a polling station in a school in the southern part of St. Paul, and the police were seriously injured. In the city of Dukede Kesha in Rio de Janeiro, City Councilman Andreya Zito was hit in his car, but fortunately no casualties were killed or killed. On October 23, a motorcycle man broke into the campaign site of Governor Fatima Bezera and opened fire on the crowds. Berzera is a long-time ally of Lula, and this violent act is undoubtedly a demonstration to Lula.
Lula's ally and Governor of Grande, North Rio, Fatima Bezera, was on the campaign.
There is no doubt that the above incident has negative impact on Bolsonaro. Lula's campaign team responded immediately: "We need to end hatred and violence... Brazil needs peace." On October 26, Pope Francis also spoke when meeting pilgrims: "May Our Lady of Aparecida (Brazil's Guardian Virgin) liberate the Brazilians from hatred, intolerance and violence."
Over the past month, Lula and Bolsonaro have worked hard to win over the voters who belong to each other. For Lula, evangelicals who originally tended to support Bolsonaro may be the key to winning; for Bolsonaro, the same is true for Bolsonaro's large-scale Catholics. To a large extent, this election has evolved into a "sectarian dispute."
On October 29, Bolsonaro's wife led a convoy to canvass for her husband in Brasilia.
Many evangelicals are worried that Lula's pro-Catholic stance will lead to squeeze in the development space of evangelicals. To this end, Lula emphasized in a speech on October 19 that she "does not support legal abortion" and said that if she comes to power, she will fully respect religious freedom.
On October 19, Lula met with evangelicals in St. Paul.
Zhou Zhiwei mentioned to Phoenix Weekly that during this election, the two candidates closely followed the two keywords on the Brazilian flag - the day glob on the Brazilian flag had an arched leucorrhea band, which was written in Portuguese with "Ordem e Progresso", which means "order and progress".
"During the election, they both regarded each other as a regression and themselves as progress." Zhou Zhiwei commented, "Bolsonaro pointed Lula at the side that "evil" in his propaganda strategy, and himself as the "good" side; Lula regarded himself as the side that "progressive" side, believing Bolsonaro is the side that "extreme and dangerous". It is precisely because Bolsonaro showed shock and exclusion to Brazil's current system that Lula had an additional political tag in this election - maintaining democratic order. "
On the streets of Brasilia, supporters of the two candidates shook their flags and shouted.
The more realistic problem is that whoever wins the election will govern a seriously divided country. As Wan Dai, director of the Chinese Latin American Society, said, the policy programs, key points and beneficiaries of the two candidates are almost completely opposite, while the support rate is basically the same, and the overall number of centrist voters is less than 10%, reflecting a considerable degree of division in Brazilian society. "No matter who is elected president, they face close to or even more than half of the opponents, and the difficulty of governing can be imagined."
The British " Financial Times " analyzed that the new president has to deal with the highly divided Congress. Although the Congress is widely right-leaning, what leads them is more political transactions and political sharing, rather than ideology beliefs. The personal interests of the two candidates
are also quite considerable. For Lula, it might be his last chance to run for office and rebuild his political legacy. Bolsonaro may face threats of prosecution. Opposition figures and some scientists claim that his improper handling of the coronavirus caused hundreds of thousands of people to die unnecessarily. The Bolsonaro administration is also involved in a series of corruption scandals that may break out in the public eye if he leaves office.
Brazil's Gitulio Vagas Foundation political scientist Claudio Couto said bluntly: "For Lula, winning means a comeback and a return from political exclusion. But if Bolsonaro wins, he will get some space to protect himself. For him, it is a matter of life and death."
His supporters celebrate the victory after Bolsonaro was elected president of Brazil in 2018.
Why did Latin America form a "new pink wave"
Lula, known as the "son of Brazil", can be called a legend in Brazil's political arena. He was once praised by former US President Barack Obama as "the most popular politician on earth". He was the first left-wing president in Brazil and the first president to be a worker. He has been in and out of prison several times and once faced a 12-year prison sentence. Since 1989, he has run for president several times, finally won in 2002 and was successfully re-elected in 2006.
When he stepped down in 2010, Lula originally planned not to run for president. He immediately experienced accusations of corruption and a year and a half in prison. His national image was much dimmer than before, but he still decided to return on behalf of the Labor Party.
"Politics lives in every cell of my body, in my blood, in my mind. Politics does not depend on politics itself, but on the reason why you participate in politics. I have such a reason." In an exclusive interview with Time magazine in May this year, Lula said, "In the 12 years since I left office, I saw that all the policies that were for the poor at that time were destroyed and demolished."
On October 29th local time, Lula and Bolsonaro met in the last round of presidential debate.
Many people believe that Lula united Brazil and also changed Brazil. During his eight-year term, Brazil experienced the first economic takeoff phase after the military government ended and completed a milestone poverty alleviation plan—40 million people entered the middle class, 30 million people escaped extreme poverty, and 22 million people entered jobs.
Some analysts said that Brazil happened to ride the east wind of rapid development of the global commodity market during this period.Therefore, the government has developed the state-owned economy to generate income while integrating into the international market, creating an economic miracle, making Brazil a " BRICS " and becoming an anticipated force in emerging markets.
Domestic success gives Lula full confidence on the international stage. He broke Brazil's conservative and low-key traditional diplomatic style and frequently visited foreign countries. During his tenure, Brazil won the host rights of 2014 Football World Cup and 2016 Rio Olympics . Even when he stepped down, Lula's national approval rating still reached an astonishing figure of 87%.
In 2009, then Brazilian President Lula, then US President Obama and German Chancellor Angela Merkel participated in the G20 summit.
As president, Lula also continued his pragmatic line in the trade union in his early years. In Latin American , people summarized the political strategies of Lula and the Labor Party as "Lullaism": a moderate reformist politics that hopes to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor and bring about social change while minimizing system turmoil.
One of the core of this strategy is negotiation politics: the government repeatedly mediates between the vested interest group and the poor, bringing welfare and development space to the latter. However, some critics believe that "Lulaism" is a kind of compromise, because avoiding institutional reform and not touching the interests of the elite means avoiding deep social problems and cannot cure Brazil's inequality.
This is not uncommon in the pink wave in early 2000s. In Argentina , the Peronian Kirchner couple successfully helped Argentina get out of a serious economic crisis. However, the country's debt crisis has never been resolved, and the country has repeatedly fallen into a vicious cycle of "high inflation-high debt". In Chile , Bachelet from the left-leaning liberals focuses on welfare policies and social reforms, but these reforms have also failed to touch the root cause. A series of social contradictions did not surface until the demonstrations in 2019 and even when the epidemic hit in 2020.
Lulla's return also marks the era when Latin America enters the left-wing rule - Latin America's top six economies (Brazil, Mexico , Argentina, Chile, Colombia and Peru ), are all led by the left-wing government.
On October 29, Lula participated in the last campaign before the voting in the streets.
In Zhou Zhiwei's view, the formation of the "new pink wave" was mainly due to the epidemic in the previous cycle dominated by the right-wing rule and the continued economic decline, which caused great problems in national governance. "Due to the impact of the epidemic and the economy, poverty has shown a trend of intensifying in Latin America. In this case, it provides a mass base for the return of the left. How to deal with poverty will become the main agenda of Latin America again."
China-Pakistan political relations will be greatly enhanced
Venezuela former president Chavez once called Lula "a fighter who jointly fights imperialism." In a 2010 interview, Lula was asked how she perceived the statement. "I'm not a fighter," Lula responded. "I'm a political leader who wants to take care of the people. But as a leader, you're not just the president of Brazil, because Brazil is very important on the international stage."
In foreign policy, Lula's goal is to make Brazil treated like a "big power". After returning from the Davos Forum in 2003, Lula, who had just taken office as president, proposed to the then Foreign Minister Celso Amorim: Brazil wants to change the world's trade territory. For Lula, Brazil has such a huge territory and resources, while its main trading partners are still the United States and EU , which is unacceptable.
Within eight years, Lula visited more than 80 countries and regions and established diplomatic relations with more than 40 countries. Brazil plays the role of coordinator in international affairs such as Iraq War and Haiti earthquake rescue. In the South American region, Brazil also actively mediates the border conflict between Venezuela and Colombia.
Lulla brings negotiation politics to the international stage: many countries regard Brazil as a neutral and reliable coordinator. Lula has gained a very high international reputation and has maintained close contacts with leaders from many countries.
It is worth mentioning that Lula spent a lot of effort to promote cooperation between BRICS countries and expand its influence. He once mentioned, "We are close to China because our two countries have common ideals."
The concept of the BRICS countries and the economic cooperation bodies built thereupon are of great significance to Lula. The BRICS countries have also become a key link in allowing Brazil and other emerging market countries to stand on the international stage and gain higher bargaining power in international trade negotiations. So far, the leaders of the BRICS countries have held 13 meetings and 9 informal meetings.
After the BRICS countries held the meeting, Brazil's cooperation with China gradually deepened. In addition to the economic level, the two countries have cooperated in science and technology, industry, agriculture, education, health and other aspects. Since 2009, China has become Brazil's largest trading partner. In 2020, the total bilateral trade between China and Brazil reached US$119.04 billion, and most of the soybeans, beef, crude oil and iron ore exported by Brazil all flowed to China.
Brazil is the main producer of iron ore and soybeans and beef. The picture shows Brazilian iron ore.
Zhou Zhiwei said bluntly that after Lula came to power, the degree of political mutual trust between China and Pakistan will be greatly improved. "Bolsonaro's political propositions are very ideological and have been reflected in the past two years. For other Latin American left-wing governments, Bolsonaro's opposition stance is more distinct."
And the multilateral diplomatic line advocated by Lula will repair some of the rifts and misunderstandings that appeared in the diplomacy between the two countries during Bolsonaro's term. Former Foreign Minister and foreign policy adviser for Lula's campaign, Celso Amorin said in an interview with Reuters that Lula's foreign policy will adopt the policy of "seeking truth from facts and not ideology".
In addition, China has an irreplaceable importance to Brazil. Zhou Zhiwei said that from a trade perspective, China accounts for one-third of Brazil's exports and is also Brazil's main investor. In this case, China's importance cannot even be replaced by the United States. "For this reason, China-Pakistan relations did not suffer much impact during Bolsonaro's administration."
Soybeans are one of the main agricultural products imported by China from Brazil.
Lulla's ultimate vision is to get Brazil to join the permanent member of the UN Security Council : He has proposed on many occasions the importance of Brazil's participation in key global decisions. Unfortunately, when he left office in 2010, this wish was still not realized, and no Latin American or African countries have successfully become "common to the Standing Committee". In his new term, he believes that "entering to the Standing Committee" will become Lula's key goal. Will the future changes happen in
?
The reason why many Brazilians vote for Lula is because they are interested in his appeal. When the country was in a dual economic and social crisis, the return of the left-wing veteran gave many voters a shot of a heart attack. But can his past glory bring a turning point to Brazil today?
In 2003, emerging markets were in full swing, and the global commodity market developed rapidly. The wealth accumulated by Brazil during this period allowed the country to survive the financial crisis in 2008. The Lula government's ability to help tens of millions of people get rid of poverty also depends on Brazil's active participation in the international market and the relative prosperity of the international economy.
However, today Lula is facing an era of global austerity. He wants to take over a country facing the blow of crises such as the epidemic and climate change. Obviously, he cannot copy the homework he handed over twenty years ago.
Most of the pink wave leaders of Lula's contemporaries have left the stage, and leaders who are still active in the political stage - such as Argentina's Alberto Fernandez - are also facing severe tests: Argentina, which is hit by the epidemic and debt problems, has seen inflation rate reaching 83%, and domestic protests continue. Among Brazil's neighbors, Colombia and Chile's new leaders come from a very different leftist background from Lula. They are younger and will inevitably advance a more radical reform agenda.
The bigger challenge comes from the country. After years of rule, Bolsonaro's influence in Brazilian society has become deeply rooted.How to face the evangelicals who account for more than 30% of the population, and even relax the gun control policy for four years? How to check and balance the growing extreme right group? Lula will face completely different challenges if she wants to build trust in the whole nation again.
Since 2018, the number of private guns in Brazil has doubled to nearly 2 million. The picture shows a sign that supports gun ownership.
On the international stage, Lula will also be subject to torture. In an exclusive interview with Time magazine in May this year, he bluntly stated that Ukraine and Russia "have the same responsibility" for the war, and condemned Washington for encouraging Ukrainian President Zelensky to oppose Russia's behavior. Lula said, "The United States has great political influence. Biden and could have avoided conflict rather than inciting conflict."
Coincidentally, former Brazilian Foreign Minister Amorin also condemned Western sanctions on Russia in an interview with Bloomberg. He said that the US-led sanctions on Russia are a political mistake and will increase the risk of nuclear war . Amorin also said that the sanctions have strengthened the relations between China and Russia. "I don't oppose China - we are all members of the BRICS countries - but I don't understand why the United States is interested in the 'strengthening of Sino-Russia relations'."
In a increasingly polarized Brazil and a increasingly fragmented world, Lula's work as a negotiator will inevitably be more difficult. Can Lula still change Brazil? The key to this question may be - can Lula also bridge the rift between classes and classes, countries and countries?
[Copyright Statement] The copyright of this article belongs to [Observation Media] . Toutiao has obtained exclusive authorization for the information network dissemination rights. No third party may reprint without authorization.
