【 Editor's note 】
2016, things have changed drastically. The two "black swans" of Brexit and Trump's election in the United States not only shocked the world, but also cast an uncertain shadow on the future trend of Western politics and society. In the confusing situation, China maintained its determination and direction, and demonstrated China's leadership in global governance on stages such as G20 and APEC. On December 29, the Institute of International Studies of Fudan University released "Changes and Differentiation: Fudan International Strategic Report 2016". The "Diplomatic Scholar" of The Paper (www.thepaper.cn) selected some articles from it for readers, took a multi-angle perspective on major international events and the development of the international situation this year, and deeply analyzed the interaction and game between the old order of international relations and the new normal of the international pattern behind the incident, in order to better understand and grasp the future development trend of international relations.
China's diplomacy in 2016 continues to uphold the basic trend of striving and proactive since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. With the interweaving and coexisting of many complex factors such as the South China Sea issue and the coexistence of the United States' "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing", China's neighboring diplomacy has still achieved great success in the past year, and China's influence has significantly increased in the surrounding areas. At the same time, the number of "Chinese wisdom" and "Chinese solutions" in global governance is increasing. The successful convening of the G20 Hangzhou Summit demonstrates China's leading role in global governance and global development cooperation in the economic field.
"Duterte effect" and neighboring diplomacy
![[Editor's Note] 2016, things have changed dramatically. The two](https://cdn-dd.lujuba.top/img/loading.gif)
Duterte's visit to China has achieved a major turnaround in China-Philippines relations. Xinhua News Agency Picture
The situation around China has undergone complex changes in 2016, but from the actual results, it not only did not impact the relationship between neighboring countries and China, but on the contrary, the power of "friendly China" in the surrounding areas has increased significantly. Among them, the climax of the diplomatic relations around was Duterte's visit to China, achieving a major turnaround in China-Philippines relations. It can be said that the "strategy of the peripheral" strategy established by the 2013 neighboring diplomatic work symposium has gradually begun to achieve results.
In 2016, many neighboring countries in China changed their term or changed their regimes, and "friendly China" or "pro-China" forces came to power one after another.
On March 31, the new Myanmar government was sworn in, and the new government led by the Myanmar National League for Democracy (DNR) began to govern. The actual "behind the scenes" Aung San Suu Kyi visited China in mid-August and regarded China as the first major power to visit, indicating that the new Myanmar government still puts diplomacy towards China first. Myanmar Defense Forces Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing also paid a successful visit to China at the end of October. China-Myanmar relations have thus achieved a smooth transition, and Aung San Suu Kyi, the "old friend" of Western countries, has given priority to making friends with China. This is inseparable from the "constructive" invitation of Aung San Suu Kyi to visit China as the chairman of the Myanmar Democratic League in June 2015, and to conduct frank exchanges and communication in advance, laying a good foundation for China-Myanmar relations after the victory of the Democratic League. The same is true for
Vietnam. The First Plenary Session of the 12th Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam held at the end of January elected a new member of the leadership group of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Nguyen Phu Tung was re-elected as General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Former Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung withdrew from the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam. This is generally considered to be the victory of the "stable faction" in Vietnam's political arena. In mid-September, Vietnam's new Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc visited China for the first time as a member of the new generation of Vietnam's leadership collective. The Vietnamese Communist Party and the government's highest leadership have changed, forming a pattern of "Knowing Chinese faction" in power, successfully achieving a smooth transition to China-Vietnam relations. In fact, as early as April 2015, General Secretary Xi Jinping invited General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Tung to lead a delegation to visit China, including members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Thi Jin Yin and Chen Daguang.
What is more dramatic is the Philippine election at the end of May. Duterte, who has a strong "anti-American" color, was elected president, changing the diplomatic line of his predecessor Aquino III. In October, Duterte made a successful visit to China, quickly freeing China-Philippines relations from the "freeze" caused by the so-called "South China Sea Arbitration Case". The most important thing is to make the US "Asia-Pacific Rebalancing" policy lose the most important piece. Therefore, observers laughed and said, "Dutert has reshaped the strategic situation in the Asia-Pacific region with his own strength."
followed Duterte, and Malaysian Prime Minister Najib also visited China for a very long time in early November. His move to deepen defense and economic cooperation with China is regarded as "reverse to China." Coupled with the US-Thailand relations that have gradually become cold since 2014, with the ascension of the new Thai king, Thailand's diplomatic focus may shift more to China in the future.
Is a "Dutert effect" that swept Southeast Asia fermenting? Although there is no positive answer at present, it is undeniable that China's influence and shaping capabilities on neighboring countries are continuing to rise.
"hardness and softness" in peripheral diplomacy
In addition to adhering to the concept of "closeness, sincerity, favor and tolerance", China also needs to establish a set of basic rules for China's exchanges with neighboring countries in carrying out neighboring diplomacy. "Combining hardness and softness" should be the right component of this basic rule.
In 2016, the South China Sea issue achieved a "soft landing", which is an important test for how the ever-increasing China can get along with neighboring countries. Continuing to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea is inseparable from China's firm protection of national sovereignty and peace in the South China Sea, and maintaining strategic restraint and determination. In the face of the South China Sea arbitration case, China's firm position and persistence have made the parties to the dispute realize that any unilateral approach to "arbitration" is not the path to resolve the South China Sea issue. Only by returning to the "dual-track idea" jointly proposed by China and ASEAN countries is the only correct choice.
China sincerely thanks and highly praised Cambodia and other countries on the South China Sea issue, which can "not fear the pressure of power, uphold justice, and insist on friendship with China". In October 2016, President Xi Jinping successfully visited Cambodia, writing a new historical chapter in China-Cambodia friendship.
On the other hand, China has resolutely given necessary warnings and countermeasures to the Ministry of Justice's practices and behaviors that do not take into account China's core interests. For example, in November, Mongolia still allowed the Dalai Lama to visit despite China's repeated severe warnings. This incident seriously hurts China's core interests. After the incident, China took a series of diplomatic and economic countermeasures to suspend ongoing intergovernmental cooperation negotiations.
"China's Leadership" in Global Governance
On September 4, 2016, at the G20 Hangzhou Summit, children waved the national flag to welcome Obama. Oriental IC Information
In 2016, the G20 Hangzhou Summit was successfully held, and the "Chinese solution" for global governance is emerging increasingly. Faced with the complex situation and risks and challenges of the current world economy, President Xi Jinping clearly pointed out: "China hopes to work with all parties to promote the Hangzhou Summit to prescribe a prescription that treats both the symptoms and the root causes and comprehensive measures."
Hangzhou Summit proposed that in the short term, all countries should strengthen communication and coordination and cooperation in macroeconomic policies to stimulate international investment and trade vitality; in the medium and long term, they should vigorously promote innovation and promote structural reform. At the same time, the summit greatly promoted the five development concepts of "innovation, coordination, greenness, openness and sharing" proposed by the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee. has taken innovation as the core achievement for the first time, placed development issues in a prominent position in global macro-policy coordination for the first time, formed a global multilateral investment rules framework for the first time, issued the President's Statement on Climate Change for the first time, and included green finance on the G20 agenda for the first time. These achievements and the 29 documents passed by focus on reflecting China's leadership in global governance, reflecting China's wisdom, integrating Chinese ideas, promoting Chinese experience, and forming Chinese solutions, which will lay a solid foundation for leading the transformation and upgrading of global governance in the economic field.
At the same time, China's ability to shape new trade and investment rules in the Asia-Pacific region is further improving. The Asia-Pacific Economic and Trade Integration Initiative, which China has promoted, has taken important steps in 2016. In the keynote speech of the APEC Summit on November 19, President Xi Jinping explained China's regional integration policy: "We will deeply participate in the process of economic globalization, support the multilateral trading system, promote the construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone, and promote the end of negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as soon as possible."
The construction of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone (FTAAP), which was initiated and promoted by China, has become one of the core issues of the APEC Lima Summit in November.The summit approved the "Collective Strategy Research Report on the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone" submitted by the APEC Ministerial Meeting, and should use the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Zone as the main platform for future integration in the Asia-Pacific region. The RCEP led by ASEAN countries is also expected to make positive progress, which has led Peru, which was not a member of the RCEP, to hurriedly announce the start of negotiations to join the RCEP before the APEC summit. Obviously, the progress of , whether it is FTAAP or RCEP, means that China will likely play a dominant role in regional economic integration.
In addition, the "Belt and Road" as China's core initiative and plan to shape its surrounding and global development has won the recognition of more countries in 2016. Up to now, more than 100 countries and international organizations have expressed support and participation in the construction of the "Belt and Road". my country has signed a cooperation agreement on jointly building the "Belt and Road" with 40 countries and international organizations, and the first batch of investment projects of the Silk Road Fund have been successfully launched. In January, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank was officially opened, which is an important measure taken by China to promote the construction of connectivity in the Belt and Road region and shape international financial rules. It can be said that the influence of China's economy is gradually transforming into the ability to shape global and regional order. China not only plays a role in the provider of public products, but will also become the rulemaker that shapes the world and the region.
In short, the challenges facing China's diplomacy in 2016 were very arduous, but it achieved remarkable results on both the surrounding and global stages. Looking ahead to 2017, China's diplomacy may face greater uncertainty. But no matter what, keeping your composure and not having "subversive mistakes on fundamental issues" is the most important thing. China should strive to think and guide the construction of a cooperation mechanism that reflects the global status quo and regional reality, based on the concept of sustainable security advocated by China, and make it a new type of international relations infrastructure that is jointly accepted by all parties.
(The author is a researcher at the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University. The original title of this article is "China: Peripheral Diplomacy shows results and Global Governance Shows Strategy", selected from "Change and Differentiation: Fudan International Strategic Report 2016")
