This article was found from the foreign website. The original author was a blogger in Taiwan, China. It was written in 2010. It has been ten years since then. Today, Iran and the United States have reached a fork in the road. At that time, Obama had been replaced by Trump. Now, some of the content of the article is a bit wrong, but looking at the analysis of Taiwanese military enthusiasts at that time is also a very interesting thing.
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If you want to ask why Iran offends the United States, you must try to understand the United States’ expectations for the Middle East. First of all, the United States expects the stability of the Middle East. Everyone knows that oil prices will rise once the war in the Middle East are in the midst of the financial tsunami and the Afghan war, and are unable to intervene in Middle East affairs. In other words, if there are major changes in the Middle East now, this change is likely to break out of the United States' grasp, which is something Washington is not happy about.
Secondly, the United States expects that the situation in the Middle East will be in line with its own interests. The best choice is of course that the entire Islamic world surrendered to the US imperialists. This did appear briefly when the Second Gulf War ended, and the US military was within its power. At that time, even Libya and Iran, the most anti-American world in the Islamic world, expressed their willingness to end the confrontation state until the situation in Iraq deteriorated. The second is to maintain the status quo, that is, there may be a lot of noise within the Islamic world, but they cannot act as a whole, and the United States can wander in it and achieve the best interests.
Iran is the biggest obstacle to the two major goals of the United States. It is called "the biggest" because there are three countries that block the interests of the United States, classified as:
1. Continuous attacks on Palestine have led to the rise of Muslims' anti-U.S. united Israel.
2. "Alliance" expansion policy strives to change the territory of the Middle East's forces. Among them, the United States has traditional ally relations with Israel, and Israel needs the United States' absolute military (one-third of the US arms exports are to Israel) and economic aid (an average of one billion US dollars in financial aid to Israel every year), so Israel is the object that the United States can "control". (During the Fourth Middle East War, US Secretary of State Jisingi once threatened Israel, which refused to cease fire, to cut off all aid. Israel's Prime Minister hung up the phone and immediately announced the ceasefire negotiations, because "without US aid, Israel cannot fight for a moment."). Although Syria and the United States have always had different positions, their domestic political situation is unstable, and long-term military investment has led to an economic recession, which is not worth fearing. Therefore, after the collapse of the Iraqi Haysan regime, Iran, whose national strength is strong and uncontrolled, became a thorn in the United States.
After talking about the reasons why the United States hates Iran, he then explained why Iran made the United States angry. In the previous paragraph, my brother mentioned: Currently, there are only two Islamic countries in the Middle East, and Iran and Syria are still implementing expansion policies in an attempt to change the current situation in the region. Syria's situation is relatively simple. As the heir to the Greater Syrian Province of the Ottoman Turkish Empire, he hopes to take the territory of Greater Syria (including today's Syria, Lebanon, Israel and Jordan) as his own and carry out its national strategy.
Iran's situation is much more complicated: simply put, Iran needs to maintain its national security, and the easiest way to protect its people is to establish a buffer zone and fight abroad! This is what Iran is doing now! And "these measures" are the real reasons for the disgust of the United States! The oil theory is purely misleading from the Taiwanese media, and the nuclear weapons theory may have an impact, but it is not the real reason for the conflict between Iran and the United States. The United States has not invaded any country by military development of nuclear weapons, even if it is a third-rate celebrity like Pakistan. So why has the United States never given up on attacking Iran by force? It is obvious that the cause of the conflict is not the nuclear weapons issue.
Iran's emphasis on national security is based on its history and national conditions. Since the 20th century, as the only Shiite country in the Middle East, Iran has been forced to seek foreign aid in the face of Sunni's overwhelming advantage. Therefore, the Iranian royal family was uniquely friendly to the United States during the Cold War and jointly fought against the Sunni countries that relied on the Soviet Union.However, after the Homeni Revolution, Iran became a theocratic state, and joined forces with the United States (pro-Israel and corrupting and promiscuous) to insult the holy name of Allah. From the revolution to the end of the Cold War, Iran at least stopped communicating with the United States on the surface, and actually entered a state of isolation and helplessness. The Iran-Iran War ended its end and also made him realize the terror of the war again. Therefore, on the one hand, Iran consolidated its military and military affairs, and on the other hand, it also sought strategic partners: this time it found China and Russia.
Allied relations have been maintained to this day and have jointly competed with NATO. This is Iran's military and diplomatic profile. In terms of internal affairs, the Persians, as the main body of Iranian nation, only account for half of the country's total population and have no absolute advantage. The second largest ethnic group in the territory, the Turks, attempted to incorporate into Azerbaijan, the third largest Kurds in the territory, fought for independence by any means, and the fourth largest Pashtuns also wanted to incorporate into Afghanistan - this is an ethnic issue. Although Iran can export oil, the United States imposed economic sanctions on it after the revolution, resulting in Iran still using equipment from thirty years ago to exploit oil. The efficiency and cost can be imagined. Moreover, most of the oil income falls into the pockets of bureaucrats of corruption, and most of the income of the country is used for military investment and foreign intervention. Therefore, Iran's domestic livelihood is in decline, the wealth and poverty are everywhere, and the proportion of female prostitution is seven times that of the United States. Therefore, there has always been serious division within Iran.
integrates the narratives of the above two paragraphs, which shows that Iran's theological regime lacks a sense of security and is always worried about being invaded. In order to keep the war outside the door, Iran carried out its expansion policy and fought decisively abroad. The main targets are two:
1. Iran and Syria cooperate to support Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Iran pays money and Syria is responsible for transporting weapons and tactical instructors. Since you have money, you can get weapons and instructors. Therefore, Iran has a much greater influence on Hezbollah than Syria. After 30 years of development, Hezbollah has become a "great weapon" and even defeated Israel's offensive in 2006. This war has gained widespread attention in the Arab world, and Hezbollah has replaced Geida as the star of hope in the Arab world, and Iran behind the scenes has also gained widespread public support among the oppressed Arabs. There is a faint appearance of the leader.
2. After the Iranian Intelligence Agency (Vevak) intervened in Iraq, the Shiite population in Iraq was far greater than that of Sunni. In the early days, Haishan used secret police to rule with high pressure and barely suppress the domestic situation. After Haishan's collapse, a power vacuum appeared in Iraq. Iran conveyed the instructions of the Shiite minister through intelligence personnel, commanding the majority of Shiite believers in Iraq to fight or reconcile and play with the US military at the hands of the hands of the United States. Although the current Iraqi government is powered by pro-American and secular Shiites, it cannot leave the capital. Locally, Shiite ministers lead the people to act in accordance with Iran's will.
has talked so much, let’s go back to the original PO problem. Is Iran "evil"? I think these two words are just propaganda by the United States. After all, international relations do not talk about Buddhist morality. The United States and Iran act according to their highest interests. Didn’t the United States secretly help Afghanistan stab the Soviet Union! ? But why the United States is hostile to Iran is not like the Taiwanese media reported that "Iran is innocent and guilty of harboring oil". These media have been deeply influenced by mainland propaganda! Iran has indeed done a lot of things that make the United States catch a cold, and Iran's national policy also poses a great threat to the United States' Middle East interests. The following list:
1. After the Second Gulf War, the Iraqi guerrillas almost (Sunni guerrillas operate independently, but the Sunni only account for 20% of Iraq's total population; while the Kurdish guerrillas are allied with the United States) all accept Iran's funding and instructions; in other words, most of the accounts of thousands of lives should be counted on Iran. How can you swallow the United States in this way?
2. Iran-backed Hezbollah carried out terrorist operations in northern Israel, and its momentum was clearly surpassing the Geda organization.With the assistance of Iran, Hezbollah's equipment training is far better than Geda, and even Israel, which is good at fighting the Middle East town war, cannot gain any advantage! What if Hezbollah turned his finger to the United States one day? He is definitely capable of bringing more serious casualties than the Gaida organization! Therefore, the United States wants to destroy Hezbollah, but if one Hezbollah is killed, Iran can still support thousands of Hezbollahs. If you want to correct the root cause and solve the problem, you can only do Iran!
3. Some people think that they simply admit the current situation in the Middle East and let Iran die within their own scope! That was a wrong idea. Iran is an insecure country; just as Israel will continue to expand its strategic buffer zone, Iran will not stop! And this kind of expansion will one day bring about military conflicts and affect the stability of the Middle East that the United States expects.
has talked so much, is it possible for the United States to attack Iran? I think it is impossible in the short term. Analyzing the Iraqi battlefield and the Israeli-League conflict from a military perspective will make the United States think twice before doing it. Even Iranian agents can't win, will there be a chance of winning against Iran? Moreover, there are too many places to pay attention to in the Imperial Cavalry at present: Afghanistan is in trouble, North Korea is causing trouble, Cuba, Venezuela and the mainland cooperate. The US military has no time to provoke Iran. From an economic perspective, the US military expenditure is huge and the Obama administration is stretched; it should seek to end the Afghan war and rest with the people as soon as possible. There is not much oil and water to fight against Iran, which will do more harm than good for the United States. Of course, it is not to throw away the Iran issue. I think the United States should take advantage of the general pro-US countries in the Middle East to launch a diplomatic offensive, just like the kindness of negotiations expressed to Iran when Obama first came to power; however, whether this lobbyist behavior, which lacks power as a backing, can impress local tyrants be worth observing again!
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