[The Ukrainian crisis on the Taiwan issue]
Sun Taiyi
Assistant Professor of Political Science Department of Newport University in Christopher, United States
Eastern Time on March 12, 2022 (Beijing and Taipei time), the 15th lecture and closed-door online seminar on the "Cross-Strait Hot Spots" series of lectures hosted by the Global Cross-Strait Relations Research Association and the Global Chinese Political Scientists Forum, and co-organized by the Taiwan China Living Cultural and Education Foundation and the Shanghai East Asia Institute, was held in Washington, United States. The meeting was chaired by Professor Zhao Quansheng of the American University of the United States, and was presented by Professor Zuo Zhengdong, the Department of Political Science at National Taiwan University and former director of the Mainland Affairs Department of the Kuomintang, and Wang Hailiang, the Shanghai East Asia Research Institute, and special researcher at the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center. Wang Zheng, professor of the School of Diplomacy at West East University and director of the Center for Peace and Conflict Research. Nearly 30 scholars from all over the world participated in the meeting, including experts and scholars such as Dun Shixin, Zhao Chunshan, Wang Gaocheng, Gengxin , Zhao Hongwei, and Hu Shaohua, who shared their opinions and asked questions during the Q&A session.
Professor Zuo Zhengdong shared three aspects: the revelation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Taiwan, the impact on the cross-strait, and his personal expectations. He believes that there are two axes within Taiwan at present. First, emotionally, the DPP regards the situation as "anti-Russia and support Ukraine", and guides public opinion to describe Russia as an invader, and how Ukraine bravely resists the invaders. At this point, the Kuomintang has also begun to mobilize party donations, making this topic not the only one who is the DPP. The second axis is that the island is beginning to become more alert to the danger of being abandoned. Taiwan has always been looking forward to the West to lend a helping hand in the crisis, and the current Western military intervention in Ukraine is only to provide military supplies and has not met Ukraine's needs. Professor Zuo also observed that the DPP went to university campuses to talk about Ukraine, mainly to compare the mainland with Russia to "anti-authoritarianism", and to use the "anti-Russia and support Ukraine" as an electoral purpose. In terms of cross-strait influence, Professor Zuo believes that when everyone is willing to invest costs for defense, peace may be cherished more. Of course, he also admitted that the competition for public opinion between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait may be more intense, and dialogue and communication before the conflict occurs is particularly important. Professor Zuo also suggested that the mainland and Taiwan can find common ground on the issue of "anti-war" and resonate.
Professor Zuo Zhengdong
Director Wang Hailiang first said that although the Ukrainian crisis has nothing to do with China in essence, if we look at the game and influence of big powers, this will have a certain impact on China's geostrategy and national unification strategy. At the same time, he believes that compared with the high complexity of the European geopolitical situation in which the situation in Russia and Ukraine, Taiwan's geopolitical situation is relatively single, which is a legacy of China's civil war and a problem that needs to be solved in the process of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. At the same time, Russia was uneasy because of the five eastward expansions of NATO , but the mainland does not have similar security dilemmas, but rather has subjective willingness to complete unification and complete historical missions. Therefore, the mainland can retain strategic determination and strategic endurance. In addition, unlike the situation in Russia and Ukraine that will expand and spill overflow, thereby changing the geostrategic pattern, the Taiwan Strait is still in the old pattern. Director Wang also made his three judgments: 1. The mainland has not yet reached the point where it is necessary to choose war or reconcile ; 2. The United States has not excluded China's peaceful reunification from the option ; 3. All Taiwanese people have not said that they must be independent and cannot be unified. Subsequently, Director Wang shared the reasons for the conflict in Russia and Ukraine and the effect of Western sanctions on Russia.
Director Wang Hailiang
Professor Wang Zheng believes that this Ukrainian war is undoubtedly a huge strategic test for every country, because there are many possibilities for the evolution of the war. This incident may mark the end of the post-Cold War era, but we don’t know what stage it has entered and whether it will be a new Cold War.In the comments, Professor Wang focused on the common points and differences between the content mentioned by the two speakers. He concluded that both speakers talked about the importance of peace. Through this incident, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait will realize that they should not start a war easily. As Mr. Ma Ying-jeou said: "There is no winner in war, and no loser in peace." At the same time, he believes that the situation in still has many similarities in Ukraine and Taiwan. If the similarity is not valued, warnings and opportunities may be missed. In addition, Professor Wang analyzed that conflicts based on identity are more difficult to resolve and are more difficult to change than conflicts based on interests. It is difficult to change the recognition that young people in Taiwan have formed through textbooks and elections. At this point, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait should pay more attention to the major alert brought by this war to the situation.
Professor Wang Zheng
Honor Professor of China Institute of Mainland China and consultant of the Straits Foundation Zhao Chunshan said in the discussion that he also observed the severity of the "identity" issue of Taiwan proposed by Professor Zuo Zhengdong. Due to the differences in systems and lifestyles, Taiwanese politicians often arouse topics such as cultural identity, democratic identity, and de-Sinicization for elections. But Han Kuo-yu can actually be elected as mayor in Kaohsiung , which means that the situation is not too serious, so there is no need to worry too much. In addition, he hopes that the mainland will not use war to talk, but can avoid war by talking.
In the interactive session, scholars conducted in-depth exchanges on topics such as "communication channels", "preparation for response to sanctions", "whether the United States is willing to contribute to Taiwan", "Comparison of Taiwan and Ukraine's strategic importance to the United States", "Communication between Taiwan and the Understandard", "Taiwan pulls the United States into the water or pushes Taiwan to the frontline", "China's next participation in the Russian-Ukrainian issue", "Is China aware of Russia's actions", "Russia's attitude towards China and India", "strategic ambiguity", "Insider of the United Nations voting", "Opportunities of the Kuomintang", "American factors and geopolitical security pattern" and other topics. Scholars expressed their opinions, and asked questions and discussions were efficient and enthusiastic.
Professor Zhao Quansheng
The Global Cross-Strait Relations Research Association will continue to launch the "Cross-Strait Hot Spots" series of lectures in the next step. In the next lecture, the invited scholars will "confer on Diaoyu Islands together", and "Looking at the World Overseas" will continue to track and report. The content of the speeches of the guests will be sorted into text one after another and will be released in "Looking at the World Overseas".
