"If the United States allows Taiwan's 'foreign minister', "Defense minister" and even higher-level officials to visit Washington and White House , this may be recognized by mainland China as a 'breakthrough of the bottom line', which will be a very serious problem and will have a serious impact on Sino-US relations and is not in line with the interests of the United States. Therefore, I do not think that the exchanges between US and Taiwan officials will reach that level."
Zhao Chunshan, the core aide of Ma Ying-jeou's cross-strait policy, said in an exclusive telephone interview with the Straits Guide reporter this morning that although the Biden- government recently announced the implementation of the "new norms of US-Taiwan exchanges", it also emphasized that it will continue to adhere to the one-China policy. "This is Biden's shrewdness and cunningness. Just like when he sent his friend Todd to visit Taiwan, he also sent a special envoy krill to the mainland to discuss climate cooperation issues."
Zhao Chunshan, born in 1946, is an important think tank for cross-strait policy of Ma Ying-jeou. During the time of Ma Ying-jeou's rule, he served as the chairman of the "Asia-Pacific Peace Research Foundation" and the chairman of the "Vision Foundation". He is also one of the core aides in the Taiwan "Xi-Ma Association" in 2015. He is currently an honorary professor at the Tamkang University Mainland Research Institute.
Zhao Chunshan believes that the "new norms of exchanges between the United States and Taiwan" is just a verbal political statement. The level of mutual visits between the United States and Taiwan officials will reach depends on the direction of China-US relations in the future. "For example, if China and the United States gradually resume strategic dialogue, this tension between the two sides may ease, and the US-Taiwan exchanges will cool down relatively."
Regarding the future direction of cross-strait relations, Zhao Chunshan said that 2024 will be a key node. "The mainland said that 'Taiwan independence' means war, and I have no doubt about this. I think the cross-strait issue is no longer the issue of 'unification and independence', but the issue of choice between war and peace. It is not that you will only engage in 'Taiwan independence', and war will break out. If the Taiwan issue is delayed for a long time, the possibility of peaceful reunification is completely lost, and war may also break out. This is stipulated in the "Anti-Secession Law"."
He further stated that the United States and Japan do not want to see the loss of Taiwan as a strategic location due to cross-strait reunification, resulting in a gap in the " first island chain ", but the United States and Japan dare not openly support "Taiwan independence". " The general trend of the world . If you have a long time of unity, you will be divided, and if you have a long time of division, you will be unified. I have been studying cross-strait relations for more than 30 years. The mainland has actually been dealing with the Taiwan issue at its own pace, and cross-strait unification is also written very clearly in Taiwan's constitutional regulations. Therefore, there is only the question of how to unify the two sides of the Taiwan Strait."
Straits Guide Reporter Wu Shenglin Text/Internet picture
