Financial Network reported on August 5 that as of today's closing, crude oil futures fell across the board, and the main PTA contract 2109 closed down 3.72%. INE crude oil fell 2.45%, hitting a half-month low. Low-sulfur fuel oil and fuel oil fell by more than 1%.
In terms of foreign markets, international oil prices hit a new low in the past half month, with WTI crude oil futures rising 0.06% to US$68.10 per barrel and falling 0.07% to US$70.33 per barrel. Both oils hit lows since July 21.
Due to the market's concerns about future supply pressure, overnight oil prices have declined. As one of the terminal petrochemical products of crude oil, PTA's price will be affected by fluctuations in oil prices at the cost end.
Looking at the market conditions of PTA throughout July, in the middle and early months, PTA followed the rise and fall of oil prices, but after entering the late months, as oil prices stabilized and rebounded, the cost side drove upward. At the same time, the typhoon caused the Yangtze River to close the port. In addition, Fuhai hit a 4.5 million-ton unit maintenance, the spot supply of PTA continued to be tight. Boosted by positive factors, the TA2109 contract fluctuated upward and hit a new high this year.
Guosen Futures said that oil prices rose steadily in the first half of the year, driven by global economic recovery, but the market will be restricted by supply and production increase in the second half of the year, and the upward resistance of oil prices has gradually increased. The cost-driven force and space of the chemical industry chain may weaken, but oil prices are still the core factor of PTA cost-driven, and at the same time pay attention to the fluctuations in the price difference of refining and cracking.
In addition, the supply of PTA will shift from the current tightening to the loosening. Demand in the weaving industry will also improve seasonally after August, and the industry's operating rate will gradually increase. Against the backdrop of global economic recovery, terminal clothing and textile consumption is expected to maintain recovery growth. Under the current good profit and demand environment, the polyester operating rate continues to operate at a high level, providing PTA with continuous and stable rigid demand support and helping PTA's social inventory digestion.
Overall, the intensity of PTA maintenance has become the decisive factor in regulating market supply and demand, and the core driver of the cost side is still in crude oil. In the future, we pay attention to the continued oil price trend and maintenance trends.
EIA crude oil inventory data increased beyond expectations, the epidemic aggravated market pessimism
Yesterday, data released by the US EIA showed that as of the week ended July 30, the United States' commercial crude oil inventory except for strategic reserves increased unexpectedly, refined oil inventory unexpectedly exceeded expectations, and gasoline inventory declined beyond expectations. The EIA report shows that U.S. crude oil exports fell by 585,000 barrels per day to 1.904 million barrels per day last week. The average four-week supply of U.S. crude oil products was 20.544 million barrels per day, an increase of 12.4% from the same period last year. Oil prices have plummeted for three consecutive trading days, and the market is cautious. The drivers of oil prices are attributed to increased supply, the epidemic affects the rhythm of domestic demand, the policy side has some restrictions on China's purchasing power, inventory accumulation exceeds expectations, and macro marginal changes, etc. Oil prices will continue to have a weak rhythm.
Huatai Futures commented that yesterday's EIA crude oil inventories increased beyond expectations, with the expected difference reaching nearly 6 million barrels, and it diverged from API inventory. Judging from the driving factors behind it, it is mainly because the US crude oil exports have dropped significantly, down nearly 600,000 barrels per day on the weekly basis. But on the other hand, gasoline inventory has dropped by more than 5 million barrels per day, and terminal consumption is still strong. Therefore, the EIA data is not completely unilateral negative, which has aggravated the current market pessimism. The main negative factor for the recent adjustment of oil prices is still the continued deterioration of the Delta epidemic (especially in China). In addition, China's third batch of import quotas has been delayed, which has led to a shortage of quotas in some domestic refineries, and the market's concerns about China's relevant policies are also increasing.
Zhuochuang Information Finished Oil Analyst Xu Na said that the domestic refined oil market may still perform weakly in August, and it will not be seen that it will rebound sharply. Although the coastal fishing moratorium ended one after another in August, the domestic refined oil inventory is currently high, and the epidemic situation in some areas has recurred, which affects or ferments the production and life of residents in a short period of time, which is not conducive to the rebound of market demand. Therefore, it is expected that domestic refined oil prices will continue to have a lack of driving force, and prices may pull back moderately.
This article is from the Financial Network
