More than two years ago, humans welcomed an uninvited guest - the new coronavirus. Its arrival broke the originally peaceful life. It not only threatened people's physical health, but also stagnated in all aspects. After the outbreak of the epidemic, although it was quickly effectively controlled, it has not been completely eliminated.
There is an old saying in China that the epidemic lasts only three years. There have been many serious epidemics in Chinese history. Generally, it will not be popular for more than three years. This year is exactly the third year of the outbreak. According to ancestors, will the epidemic completely disappear this year?
1
In the face of the epidemic, why should our country insist on " dynamically clearing "?
Highlights Liang Wannian, head of the expert group of the Leading Group for the Epidemic Response and Disposal of the National Health Commission, said:
Highlights are a general policy. This general policy is established under our country's anti-epidemic concept "People first, life first". Its core problem is not about the removal of the virus, nor does it mean that no case can occur, but about the clearance of the epidemic.
Simply put, if you find an epidemic, you will eliminate the epidemic, so that it will not have continuous community transmission and large-scale rebound. This is dynamic zeroing.
From the perspective of countries around the world, most countries are relaxing and adjusting their entry. Therefore, in terms of domestic epidemic prevention and control adjustment measures, it only takes the community as the first line of defense in the past and returns to medical institutions.
Preventing the runs of medical institutions and treating severe illness and death as the most important line of defense. It is not completely lying flat or leaving it alone. Measures for social public health will be taken appropriately according to the needs of the epidemic, including The World Health Organization also repeatedly calls for personal protection, such as wearing masks and maintaining appropriate social distance.
Our previous waves of epidemics were the smallest, so our incidence, infection rate, severe disease rate, and mortality rate are one of the lowest countries in the world. In such a situation, if there are no strict measures to implement, in the face of the new Omickron mutant strain, we can easily " break the defense ". Once "break the defense", the losses and harm caused will be huge.
2
"The epidemic will last for only three years". Will the new crown epidemic end this year? Academician Zhong Nanshan tells the truth
According to statistics, since the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of people infected with the new coronavirus has been close to 500 million. And during the epidemic, the death toll was about 6.2 million. The rapid spread of the new crown epidemic has greatly affected the lives and work of ordinary people. More and more people are looking forward to the epidemic being completely over in the second half of this year.
Regarding this issue, Academician Zhong Nanshan said: The epidemic may exist for a long time, but large-scale transmission can be controlled. We will gradually open up during the dynamic removal process, which shows that the epidemic can still be prevented and controlled.
Academician Zhong Nanshan said: 60% to 70% of the cases are in rural areas recently, and three things must be done: 1. Strengthen the popularization of epidemic prevention knowledge among ordinary people; 2. Strengthen the popularization of epidemic prevention education for rural doctors; 3. Conveniently facilitate the nucleic acid testing of the people and accelerate the testing capabilities of grassroots rural areas.
In addition, a team of more than 10 members, including more than 10 members, including Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou University, my country, and Vice Dean of the School of Atmospheric Sciences, Huang Zhongwei, and . They also published a commentary article titled "Is the Omickron Pandemic going to End" in the English journal "Innovation" jointly published by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Youth Innovation Promotion Association and Western Press.
The forecast results of Huang Jianping’s team show that Omickron will continue to affect the world in 2022, and the new crown pandemic will not end until the end of 2023 (around November 2023).
No matter what statement and prediction, we always firmly believe that in the near future, the new coronavirus will eventually be eliminated by humans and restore the peaceful life of the past.
3
Three scenarios of the epidemic situation this winter
The trend of the new crown epidemic this winter is still difficult to determine. However, there are three possible scenarios for the epidemic trend.
. The epidemic continues to improve under the current situation. Although it is unlikely that the new crown epidemic will end this winter, the number of incidence and deaths of new crown will continue to decline. The possibility of such a scenario is relatively small, with the probability of less than 30%.
. Maintain or fluctuate in the current epidemic situation in a small scale, that is, the number of new crown patients fluctuates from 30,000 to 50,000 per week, and the number of new crown deaths fluctuates from 10,000 to 20,000 per week. The possibility of such a scenario is about 30%-50%.
. The sixth wave of the new crown epidemic in the world will appear this winter. There is a high possibility of such a scenario, with a probability of about 50%.
has three basis for judgment: First, the current global epidemic situation is still at a high level; second, winter is soon approaching, even if no new mutant strains appear, just gathering and moving people, plus the winter environment, is enough to push the current epidemic into a new wave of epidemics; third, based on the virus mutation situation in the past three years, the possibility of new mutant strains cannot be ruled out.
Although the possibility of a third scenario is relatively greater, the number of deaths caused by the new crown epidemic this winter is probably not very large.
has three basis: First, global vaccination continues to improve, and the vaccination rate continues to increase; second, the first five waves of epidemics have caused the death of the weakest part of the population, and the remaining part has relatively strong resistance to the new crown; third, experience has been summarized from past epidemic prevention and control, and coupled with the application of new therapeutic drugs, the health system is more capable of responding to the possible new round of epidemics.
4
In the current epidemic situation, how should we protect it?
. The public should wear a disposable medical mask in daily life and travel, and take good hand hygiene and abide by respiratory etiquette. No need to wear multiple masks or masks with breathing valve , no need to wear protective clothing.
. When holding a meeting, it should be effectively ventilated and has a social distance of more than 1 meter. Masks should not be worn when people are crowded or poorly ventilated.
. When there is no suspected/confirmed case, the cleaning of the home environment should be mainly daily cleaning and ventilation, and there is no need for daily disinfection.
4. When paying for shopping in supermarkets, you should line up one meter apart and wear a mask. The first choice is to pay without contact.
5. When riding a car elevator, you should wear a mask throughout the journey, stand at intervals, and abide by respiratory etiquette.
6. When parents play with children, they should cultivate their children's awareness of hand hygiene, correct children's bad habits of eating hands and toys in a timely manner, and clean their hands and toys regularly.
7. When taking a bus or subway, you can wear gloves to reduce touching public parts and do not touch your mouth, nose and eyes.
8. Before eating, you should wash your hands with hand sanitizer or soap under running water, or rub your hands with hand-free disinfectant. You should not wash your hands and grab food directly with your hands.
9. When coughing and sneezing, use a tissue to cover your mouth and nose, then wrap the tissue and place it in the trash can or use elbows to cover it. You should not spit anywhere, cover your hands, or cough or sneeze directly at others.
