Recently, Taiwan Strait relations have become tense due to the incident of Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Under such circumstances, many people on the island of Taiwan have begun to think about where Taiwan should go. At this time, the Kuomintang member Zhang Yazhong stood up and expressed his opinion. When Zhang Yazhong was doing the show, he said that if the Kuomintang can win the election in 2024, it may bring new opportunities to cross-strait relations, allowing Taiwan to avoid the impact of war, thereby ensuring that Taiwan is in a non-war peace period.
First of all, among the Kuomintang members, Zhang Yazhong is indeed more admirable.
first, dare to speak, and has the temperament of a lone hero.
Second, it is a distinctive feature of Zhang Yazhong on the cross-strait relations issue that politicians in various factions dare not speak out on the island of Taiwan.
Third, Zhang Yazhong lost in the election process with Zhu Lilun . This tragic color makes people favor Zhang Yazhong.
Secondly, based on the above reasons, the outside world has a good impression of Zhang Yazhong, but the world is easy and time changes. When looking at a person's position, he can only discover the truth in the face of urgent, difficult and dangerous situations. Now in order to plan a way out for Taiwan, Zhang Yazhong proposed that if the Kuomintang can come to power, Taiwan may be in a non-war peaceful area, and this view is not worthy of recognition.
First, from the perspective of the Kuomintang itself, it is unlikely that the Kuomintang will take office in the 2024 Taiwan election, and overall, it is pessimistic about this. From the current poll perspective, there is a big gap between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party. Although many polls are actually in the hands of the Democratic Progressive Party or the Popular Progressive Party, this poll data is not enough to win the trust, publishing polls every once in a while will naturally affect the public opinion on the island and the mentality of the people on the island. Therefore, it is really difficult for the Kuomintang to emerge and turn the tables against the wind in the competition with the Democratic Progressive Party. If the Kuomintang really turns around and still has hope of resurrection at the political level, you can take a look at the upcoming "nine-in-one" county and city mayor elections to be held at the end of this year. If the Kuomintang can win the basics in county and city elections, there is still some hope in 2024. Otherwise, the Kuomintang should not have this idea as soon as possible. From the comparison between the Kuomintang and the Democratic Progressive Party, it can be inferred that the Kuomintang has a lower chance of winning.
is even more optimistic about the new chairman of the Kuomintang. Since Zhu Lilun took office last year, he and Tsai Ing-wen have been laughing at each other with cross-strait relations. There is not much difference between the two. It has been mentioned before that the Kuomintang and the DPP have fundamental differences in positions. The Kuomintang still adheres to the one-China principle. The DPP wants to create the "one China, one Taiwan, two countries theory", but since Zhu Lilun came to power, the proposition adopted was "pro-US, friendly to Japan, and harmonious China."
Under this policy proposition, Zhu Lilun regarded Taiwan as an "independent political entity" in his heart. What's more, Zhu Lilun also clearly denied the "1992 Consensus ", directly believed that the "1992 Consensus" was a consensus without consensus, and also told mainland China not to use the "1992 Consensus" to "fool people". Judging from Zhu Lilun's various performances, the Kuomintang's statement on Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, and the various performances of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council announced the list of "Taiwan independence stubborn elements", the Kuomintang can no longer count on it.
From the above perspective, Zhang Yazhong proposed that if the Kuomintang can take office in 2024, it will be able to ease the tensions between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait and ensure that Taiwan becomes a non-war peaceful area. This proposal can only be laughed off. After all, Zhang Yazhong's own family does not know his own affairs.
Second, the reason why I am not optimistic about Zhang Yazhong's proposal is because cross-strait relations have undergone fundamental qualitative changes after Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Before Pelosi visited Taiwan, mainland China did not take any measures, and the Kuomintang still had a certain say in the exchanges between cross-strait relations. After all, as a political party that pursues "Taiwan independence", the Democratic Progressive Party is not qualified to engage in dialogue with mainland China. Considering that the Kuomintang adheres to the one-China principle, the Kuomintang and the Communist Party have cooperated twice in history, so mainland China gives the Kuomintang a super high standard treatment.Since Pelosi visited Taiwan and mainland China decisively held large-scale military exercises in the sea and airspace near Taiwan, the dominance and initiative of cross-strait relations have become more than just a declaration on paper, but have become a practical military action and a powerful military force.
In this case, even if the Kuomintang comes to power, it cannot occupy a place in the cross-strait relations pattern. Even if it can occupy a place, there is only one way to actively cooperate and an option, and equal dialogue cannot be held. Since Pelosi visited Taiwan, cross-strait relations have undergone earth-shaking changes. Since Zhang Yazhong, as a scholar, should recognize this problem. On August 25, the Chinese government released the fact that Pelosi visited Taiwan again, and it has been clearly listed. In this case, I hope that Zhang Yazhong can recognize the reality, adapt to the new changes in the times, adjust his policy stance, and contribute his own strength to the cause of national reunification, rather than carving the boat and seeking swords, still sticking to his previous views.
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Third, the reason why I disagree with Zhang Yazhong's view is that the idea that the Kuomintang can ensure that Taiwan becomes a non-war peaceful area is indeed a very naive scholar's opinion. Mainland China has put in enough patience to resolve the Taiwan issue, and has given enough kindness and a lot of benefits, but the investment is insufficient to output. A series of policies to benefit Taiwan are interpreted by "Taiwan independence" as mainland China cannot do without Taiwan. As Chairman of TSMC said, because TSMC is very important to mainland China, it can only be good to TSMC. For ordinary people, not many people can come to the mainland in person to experience the earth-shaking changes in the mainland. They believe that the mainland's policies to benefit Taiwan are because Taiwan's products are indeed good. If you can buy pineapples produced in Taiwan, of course you can also buy better ones elsewhere, but mainland China chose Taiwan’s products in consideration of cross-strait relations. Mainland China adheres to the concept of being one family on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and blood is thicker than water, and has taken a series of actions. It is counterproductive under the political discourse structure of "Taiwan independence".
If the Kuomintang comes to power and wants to maintain a non-war peaceful area, unless it shows enough goodwill and shows enough respect, the simplest example is that if the Kuomintang can terminate the connection with "anti-China" parliamentarians in other countries, it may also gain time for itself to relax. From the perspective of mainland China, what Zhang Yazhong said about maintaining Taiwan’s non-war peaceful zone is indeed very difficult. The people on the island have been poisoned by "Taiwan independence" for a long time, and their thinking, behavior and psychology have created huge gaps. From the United States' perspective, the only China's weakness that can be grasped at the moment is the Taiwan issue. The United States will not allow mainland China to liberate Taiwan without any obstacles. If you think that the United States will stand by and watch, it can only be said to be a fool. Therefore, while the United States frequently plays the "Taiwan card" and puts pressure on China, it is impossible for Taiwan to maintain a non-war peaceful zone. In the Sino-US game, Taiwan is undoubtedly the intersection of the Sino-US confrontation. If Zhang Yazhong still believes that as long as Taiwan is a "good baby", the United States, the "strange uncle", would not have malicious intentions, which only shows that Zhang Yazhong is too pure.
In short, Taiwan issue has developed to this day. In fact, the Kuomintang has an unshirkable responsibility. Even if the Kuomintang comes to power, it still has to face the question of whether Taiwan wants to return and whether it maintains a non-war peaceful area. On this issue of major issues, I also hope that Zhang Yazhong can adapt to the development of the new era, adjust his pace, stand on the right side of history, and make his own contribution to the great cause of national reunification.
