According to the latest news, the forecast increase in oil prices has undergone new changes, which may directly affect the final result of the price adjustment at 24:00 on October 24. Therefore, many people pay special attention to the latest oil price increase trend. If the next round of refined oil price adjustment ends, then it is a relatively good choice to cheer on the eve of the oil price adjustment, which is also an important reason why most people often pay attention to changes in oil prices. In addition, the current national price of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline has achieved "11 rises, 7 falls, 1 stranded", which is significantly lower than the first half of this year. The refueling cost of car owners is much cheaper, but due to the maintenance of the basic situation of "more rises, less falls", the comprehensive cost of car owners' friends to fill a box of gasoline and diesel is still more than 50 yuan more expensive than at the beginning of the year.
Of course, according to the latest oil price trends, the crude oil change rate on the fourth working day of this round of pricing cycle is 5.23%, which shows that the forecast increase of oil prices has decreased to 235 yuan/ton. Compared with the past few working days, the cumulative increase of oil prices has fallen below the 300 yuan/ton mark, and the main indicators for price adjustment in recent working days have maintained a continuous reduction trend. Therefore, the forecast increase of oil prices has gradually moved away from the scope of big increases. To be converted into liter prices, the predicted increase in oil prices narrows to 0.19 yuan/liter, and the specific data is 0.18 yuan/liter-0.20 yuan/liter. This means that although the oil price is expected to shrink, it still meets the basic standards for the increase. Therefore, the 20th round of oil price adjustment may usher in the "12th increase" this year, and the prices of gasoline No. 92 and No. 95 will continue to rise.
In addition, since the current oil price forecast increase narrows to 0.19 yuan/liter, while the current price of No. 95 gasoline in some provinces across the country is between 8.80 yuan/liter and 8.90 yuan/liter. Combined with the OPEC+ production cut measures, a significant decline in distilled oil inventory in the United States last week, and a slight correction in the US dollar index, it is expected that after the price adjustment at 24:00 on the 24th of this month, No. 95 gasoline may rebound to the "9 yuan era". Car owners in some provinces will spend at least 450 yuan to fill a box of 50 liters of gasoline, which means that consumers' oil costs may be significantly increased.
In detail, for the No. 95 gasoline that most people care about, according to the latest oil price forecast, the provinces that are expected to rebound to the "9 yuan era" are Guangdong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, Yunnan Province, and Sichuan Province, because the price of No. 95 gasoline in these four provinces and regions exceeds 8.80 yuan/liter, especially the price of No. 95 gasoline per liter in Yunnan and Guangxi exceeds 8.90 yuan per liter. This means that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will increase, and No. 95 gasoline is likely to rise above the 9.0 yuan/liter mark. As for most other provinces, cities and regions, although the retail price limit for gasoline and diesel is expected to achieve a "12th increase", it is expected that it will not be able to achieve a breakthrough increase.
Secondly, in terms of international oil prices, the overall situation is currently in a state of fluctuation and fluctuation. is mainly the result of the game between two major factors: OPEC's relevant resolution on the supply side and the relative weakness of the demand side. In addition, coupled with the recent significant decline in the US distilled oil inventories of and the overall rise in risky asset prices, international oil prices have rebounded slightly. As of the close of the 13th, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.84 to close at $89.11 per barrel, an increase of 2.11%. London Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose $2.12 to close at $94.57 a barrel, an increase of 2.29%.
Obviously, WTI crude oil is close to US$90 per barrel, an increase of 2.0%, and Brent crude oil futures price approaches US$95 per barrel, an increase of 2.0%. This means that both Meibu oils both rose by more than 2.0% in a single trading day, and the rebound momentum is relatively significant. However, since this is only an increase in one trading day, it is not advisable to draw conclusions too early, and oil prices are very likely to remain volatile.
To sum up, according to the latest changes, the forecast increase of oil prices on the fourth working day of this pricing cycle narrows to 0.19 yuan/liter. Combined with multiple market news, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment can achieve the "12th increase", and No. 95 gasoline may rebound to the "9 yuan era", and car owners' refueling costs will be significantly increased by then.
