At present, the 20th round of domestic oil price adjustment has entered the countdown stage. The specific price adjustment window opens at 24:00 on October 24, and there are only the last three working days left. The expected increase in oil prices still exceeds the red line of price adjustment. Therefore, the upcoming new round of refined oil price adjustment is more likely to rise. If the oil price continues to rise in the next few working days, it means that this round of oil price adjustment has risen. At that time, the prices of gasoline No. 92 and No. 95 will be raised one after another. The cost of car owners to fill a box of gasoline has increased significantly, and the national refined oil price will achieve the "12th increase" this year.
In addition, according to the latest news, the crude oil change rate in the 7th working day of this round of pricing cycle was 4.02%, down 0.77 percentage points from the previous working day's increase . The cumulative increase of oil price forecast was reduced to 170 yuan/ton, which further narrowed the expected increase from the sixth working day's refined oil price. However, the current forecast latest increase still exceeds the price adjustment red line. Therefore, oil prices are still in an upward state, and lay the foundation for the price adjustment on the evening of the 24th. To be converted into liter prices, the oil price is expected to rise by 0.13 yuan/liter-0.15 yuan/liter. The expected increase of is 30 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. According to the estimate of ordinary private cars, it will cost 6.5 yuan to 7.5 yuan to fill a box of 50 liters of gasoline.
Of course, since the current expected increase in refined oil has reached 170 yuan/ton, according to my country's oil price adjustment mechanism, it can be seen that it exceeds the increase of 120 yuan/ton. Judging from the current latest oil price forecast trend, it is a high probability event that the price adjustment on October 24 showed a slight increase. It is expected that the prices of gasoline No. 92, 95 and diesel No. 0 are slightly raised, completing the 12th increase since this year. At that time, my country's refined oil prices will show a new pattern of "12 rises, 7 falls, and 1 stranded".
Secondly, from the first seven working days of this round of refined oil pricing cycle, it can be seen that the forecast increase in oil prices continues to shrink, and the "six consecutive declines" have been completed. The expected increase will narrow from the initial 360 yuan/ton to around the current 170 yuan/ton, which means that the expected increase in oil prices will experience a significant reduction. The main reason behind this is closely related to the intensified market concerns about oil demand. The long support of OPEC + for oil prices has gradually weakened.
In the overseas market, as the market is expected to announce the release of more strategic crude oil reserves this week, this news once again directly suppressed oil prices. In addition, the concerns about the global economic recession continue to put pressure on oil prices. Therefore, the international crude oil futures price consolidated narrowly in the overnight market, and fell significantly in the early morning of the 18th, and then consolidated in a narrow manner. At the close, international oil prices showed a significant decline.
As of the close of the day on the 18th, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in November fell $2.64 to close at $82.82 per barrel, a drop of 3.09%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in December fell $1.59 to close at $90.03 per barrel, a drop of 1.74%.
Furthermore, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its capacity report on Monday (October 17), showing that the largest shale oil production location in the United States - located in the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico - is expected to increase production by about 50,000 barrels per day in November, reaching a record 5.453 million barrels per day. Meanwhile, last week, Biden said that gasoline prices were too high. This week he will make more anti-inflation remarks. Obviously, in order to curb the rebound of oil prices, the United States can be said to have used all its tricks to push international oil prices to continuously lower, with a cumulative decline of more than 10% in the short term.
To sum up, since the market expects that the United States will announce the release of more strategic crude oil reserves this week, international oil prices have been significantly lowered again. Affected by this, the 20th round of domestic oil price adjustment in entered the countdown, and the cumulative increase of the seventh working day is expected to be reduced to 170 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a price increase. It is expected to be lowered by 0.13 yuan-0.15 yuan per liter, which is still much higher than the price adjustment red line, so the new round of price adjustment is likely to usher in an increase.
