Oil prices are changing every trading day, because the supply and demand relationship changes at all times, and the factors affecting oil price fluctuations are also constantly updated. Therefore, whether it is the international crude oil futures price or domestic refined oil prices, they are undergoing new changes every trading day, and the closing price rise and fall is normal. Of course, this is also the main reason why many people continue to pay attention to and discuss oil prices. After all, there is a significant gap in oil price trends at different stages, so the same is true for consumers' oil use costs.
gets back to the point. According to the latest oil price trends, the crude oil change rate in the 6th working day in China was -3.31%, a decrease of 0.54 percentage points from the previous working day. The cumulative decline of oil price is narrowed to 140 yuan/ton, which is about 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. However, it still exceeds the price adjustment red line. Combined with changes at the market news level, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment will continue to be lowered, but it is predicted that the decline in oil prices will gradually shrink. In other words, it is not easy to see a slight decline in the price adjustment of refined oil, and we cannot have high expectations.
Of course, if converted into liter prices, the latest reduction in current oil prices is 0.10 yuan/liter-0.12 yuan/liter. Although the decline is significantly reduced from the 5th working day in China, fortunately, each increase is still more than 0.10 yuan. Therefore, for ordinary private cars, car owners can spend 5 yuan-6 yuan less than a box of 50L gasoline. In the case of oil prices rebounding and rebounding, this is already relatively good. Moreover, the domestic forecast trend of refined oil prices has achieved a continuous downward trend.
In addition, according to the current latest oil price forecast changes, domestic gasoline No. 92, 95 and diesel prices still have the possibility of continued decline. After all, when this round of pricing cycle has passed half, the predicted decline in oil prices is still around 140 yuan/ton, which is 90 yuan/ton higher than the red line of oil price decline. In addition, the market continues to worry about the global economic recession, and the background of weak prospects for energy demand, it is expected that the oil price will rebound sharply, so there is still a possibility that the new round of oil price adjustment will show a slight decrease.
Secondly, in terms of international oil prices, recently, affected by the decline in U.S. oil inventory last week, the market risk preference rebound, and the expected OPEC+ to announce production cut measures in early October, international crude oil futures prices fluctuated and rose on the 28th, continuing the upward trend from the previous trading day, and the increase was higher, among which WTI re-stepped the $80 mark, and Brent crude oil futures also approached $90.
As of the close of the day (28th), the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in November rose by $3.65 to close at $82.15 per barrel, an increase of 4.65%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures delivered in November rose by $3.05 to close at $89.32 per barrel, an increase of 3.54%. Obviously, both U.S.-Brazil oil oil rose by more than 3.5%, especially the WTI crude oil increase expanded to around 4.6%, which shows that positive factors have driven a strong rebound in oil prices and boosted market mentality.
Details, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration on the 28th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week were 430.6 million barrels, a decrease of 200,000 barrels month-on-month, a slight increase from previous market expectations. During the same period, U.S. gasoline and distilled oil inventories decreased significantly by 2.4 million barrels and 2.9 million barrels month-on-month, respectively, while propane and propylene inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels month-on-month. Including commercial crude oil, refined oil, propane and propylene, U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 8.9 million barrels month-on-month last week.
Furthermore, the index finally fell, which provided a rare breathing space for risk assets. The market risk preference rebounded, and international oil prices also rose by more than $5 from the intraday low, sweeping away the previous decline, adding a lot of popularity to the market, and improving mentality slightly.
To sum up, as the market positive factors increase, international crude oil futures rebound, affected by this, the forecast decline in domestic oil prices narrowed to 140 yuan/ton, but it still exceeded the price adjustment red line. Therefore, it is expected that the next round of refined oil price adjustment is still expected to continue to lower.
