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Global routes continue to rise in price
Since this year, the rapid rebound of the container shipping industry is quite surprising.
tracks shipping, the US-Western Freight Index (SCFI) has hit a four-year record high in mid-July. The upward momentum has not stopped for more than two months, rising to a maximum of $3,867/FEU (40-foot container).
China's export container freight index also showed that it rose to 1023.02 points as of September 30, a new high in the past two years.
Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) weekly K-line chart can be seen more clearly. The price increase of in this round of international route freight began in May, with a rapid price increase of . After the volatile pullback in July and August, it started a big rise again in the past two weeks, up 28.63% and 21.18% respectively.
[BDI is the abbreviation of the Baltic Dry Index. It is weighted by the spot freight (Spot Rate) of several major routes and is a reflection of the spot market. Therefore, the level of freight price will affect the rise and fall of the index. 】
is special. The US-Western Freight Index Station is above US$3,000/FEU for more than two months. The freight rate is rare in history. At present, there is even a situation in the shipping market that is difficult to find a box, which surprised some professional institutions.
In April this year, shipping consulting agency Sea-Intelligence predicted that the decline in transportation demand caused by the new crown pneumonia epidemic will in the worst case, and even a wave of suspensions may cause a loss of US$23 billion to the entire transportation industry throughout the year, which is equivalent to the sum of profits of the transportation industry in the past 10 years. But by the end of 8, the results of the agency's re-evaluation were very different from before - the integrated transportation industry could achieve a profit of up to US$15.4 billion in the whole year.
China's exports are growing rapidly
In parallel with the prosperity of the shipping industry, China's exports are growing rapidly. In July and August, China's exports hit a rapid growth of more than 10% in a row; in August, China's exports amounted to 1.65 trillion yuan, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year, the highest growth rate since March last year. In the US dollar, China's exports grew by 9.5% year-on-year, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from the growth rate of 7.2% in July.
This data is also unique in global trade. In comparison, Japan's exports fell by double digits for six consecutive months; Germany's exports increased by 4.7% month-on-month in July, but still fell by about 11% year-on-year.
Oxford Economic Research Institute analyzed that China accounted for an average of 17.2% of the global export market in the second quarter, which is the highest level of China's global export market share in the all-time high. export data also reflects China's leading role in global trade during the epidemic. China's exports have increased year-on-year for three consecutive months, bringing hope to international trade, which has been hit hard by the epidemic.
html Non-manufacturing business activity index in 19 was 55.9, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI index of the construction industry and service industry was 60.2 and 55.2 respectively; the new order index of the construction industry and service industry was 56.9 and 53.5 respectively. The construction industry index was high in September, and entered the construction stage of the "Golden September and Silver October" in the future, and the prosperity index is expected to continue. htmlIn September, the import and export prosperity of manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range, and the service industry maintained an upward momentum.Manufacturing industry:
(1) This month, the supply and demand continued to be in the expansion range, and the demand prosperity further rose. As the epidemic is effectively controlled, the supply and demand gap is narrowing.
(2) Import and Export Index returned to the prosperous range for the first time this year, which has certain support for import and export trade.
(3) With the resumption of work and production and economic recovery, industrial product prices have rebounded significantly for two consecutive months, which is beneficial to the profit growth of related industries. In terms of the industry, the infrastructure, equipment and consumption industries are in good prosperity.
(5) This month, the prosperity of small enterprises rebounded to the expansion range, and the "six guarantees" and "six stability" policies have received certain results.
Non-manufacturing industry:
(1) The construction industry prosperity index continues to be high;
(2) The service industry prosperity index continues to recover, and the wholesale, retail, catering and accommodation industries are all in the expansion range; the impact of the epidemic on the service industry is weakening.
9 monthly PMI index rose. The production index was 54, up 0.5 percentage points from August; the new order index was 52.8, up 0.8 percentage points from August.
new export order index and import index turned into expansion range for the first time this year, at 50.8 and 50.4 respectively.
9 monthly supply and demand have improved, and production data is better than demand data, but the gap has further narrowed. The overseas epidemic is still at its peak, but the economic recovery is in an orderly manner, and the new export order index has entered the expansion range for the first time this year. 9 monthly finished product inventory rose slightly, but it was still in the contraction range, and high inventory has eased. 9 industrial product price index further rebounded, and PPI will continue to improve month-on-month. In September, the PMI factory price index fell by 0.7 percentage points from August to 52.5; the raw material purchase price index rebounded by 0.2 percentage points from August to 58.5. The raw material purchase price index has rebounded for three consecutive months, and profits in industrial products-related industries will gradually improve. We expect PPI to continue to improve month-on-month in September, which has a positive impact on the profits of industrial enterprises in September.
Source: 21st Century Business Herald, Shanghai Securities News, Bank of China Securities September PMI data comments
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