According to the schedule for adjustment of refined oil prices in my country, it can be seen that the 21st round of oil price adjustments since the beginning of this year will usher in at 24:00 on November 7, 2022. At that time, the national gasoline and diesel prices will show new changes, and the same is true for the prices of No. 92, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel. Of course, domestic oil prices have undergone 20 rounds of adjustments, including 12 rises, 7 falls, and 1 stranded. After the rise and fall, the cumulative increase of gasoline and diesel per ton has increased by 1,490 yuan and 1,430 yuan respectively. To be converted into liter prices, the price per liter of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have been increased by 1.17 yuan, 1.24 yuan and 1.22 yuan respectively since this year. Car owners add a box of 50 liters of gasoline and are more than 60 yuan more expensive than at the beginning of the year. Therefore, the cost of daily driving is significantly higher than in previous years.
In addition, according to the latest oil price news, domestic oil prices have risen again. It is expected that the increase in will exceed 100 yuan/ton, which means that the next round of price adjustment may continue to rise. To be precise, since the crude oil change rate on the fourth working day in the next round of pricing statistics cycle is 1.58%, which is significantly higher than the third working day's increase, and the oil price is expected to increase to 100 yuan/ton, which is 50 yuan/ton higher than the price adjustment red line. Therefore, oil prices are in an upward state and completely break the stranded state at the beginning of this round of pricing cycle. To be converted into liter prices, the oil price is expected to rise by 0.07 yuan/liter-0.09 yuan/liter. For ordinary private cars, it will cost about 3.5 yuan to 4.5 yuan to fill a box of 50 liters of gasoline, which further expands compared with the forecasted increase on the previous working day, laying the foundation for the next round of price adjustments that may continue to rise.
At the same time, according to the current latest oil price increase, domestic refined oil prices are expected to usher in the 13th increase this year. The prices of No. 92, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel may continue to rise, which may continue to increase for consumers' refueling costs, and the pressure and burden of life will further increase at that time. Therefore, this is not good news, but under the support of the price adjustment reference main indicators, this may become a fact. Of course, it is worth mentioning that there are still 6 working days left before the price adjustment window opens on October 7, 2022. During this period, there is a high possibility of fluctuation in oil prices, so there is a variable in the oil price forecast situation, which shows that there is still room for maneuver, and there is a possibility of change in the so-called rise in oil prices.
Secondly, in overseas markets, the performance of risk assets is still fluctuating under the leadership of macroeconomic factors. After the European Central Bank hikes as expected and the United States released the third-quarter GDP data, the market risk preference once rebounded. Although the United States' GDP rebounded in the third quarter, concerns about economic recession did not disappear. However, as the US dollar weakened, oil prices continued to rise against this background, and Brent crude oil once returned to $95.
Furthermore, recent macro factors such as the rebound in the U.S. economic growth rate in the third quarter boosted the prospect of oil demand, and the overall market risk preference, so international oil prices continued to rise on the 27th. However, data released on the same day showed that economic growth is still slowing, which is expected to limit the rise in international oil prices.
As of the close of the day on the 27th, the price of light crude oil futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in December rose by US$1.17 to close at US$89.08 per barrel, an increase of 1.33%; the price of Brent crude oil futures delivered in December rose by US$1.27 to close at US$96.96 per barrel, an increase of 1.33%.
To sum up, affected by the macro factors such as the recovery of US economic growth in the third quarter, international oil prices continued to rise, and helped my country's refined oil prices rise again. The expected increase exceeds 100 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a liter price. It is predicted that the oil price will increase by 0.07 yuan/liter-0.09 yuan/liter, which is an expected increase from the previous working day. Therefore, the next round of price adjustment may continue to rise, and it is possible to achieve the "13th increase" this year.
