After yesterday's trading session, the central bank , the China Securities Regulatory Commission, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission , and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange made a major statement to maintain the healthy development of the stock market, bond market and real estate market. The stock market ranks first, which shows the management's care for the stock market.
In addition to domestic policies, there are also great positives in the international financial market. It has been said before that in the medium and short term, the trend of global stock markets depends on When the Federal Reserve will delay the rate hike of , and when the Federal Reserve will turn to a dove depends on whether US core inflation can fall. The US economic recession and rising unemployment rate are forward signals.
Following the US Markit manufacturing and service industry PMI released by S&P the night before yesterday, both of which were significantly lower than expected, the manufacturing PMI hit a new low since June 2020, falling below the boom line for the first time in two years. The service industry PMI has shrunk for four consecutive months. The PMI survey highlights the intensified risk of contraction in the US economy in the fourth quarter.
Several data released by the United States last night were once again inferior to market expectations, and the US economic recession began to appear. Specifically, housing price data released by the United States shows that after the first month-on-month decline in urban housing prices in July 20, the national housing prices in the United States rose 13% year-on-year in August, a year-on-year increase of 15.6% last month, a 2.6 percentage point narrowing from the previous month, which is the largest contraction of the indicator since its launch in 1987, which means that the increase in housing prices in the United States is slowing down at a record rate.
House rental rise is an important reason for the high of core inflation in the United States. Now, the U.S. housing prices have dropped significantly month-on-month, and the U.S. housing mortgage interest rates are also hitting new highs. As the prosperity of the US real estate market declines, the stubborn rent will also be resolved, and core inflation in the US is expected to fall back.
In addition, the US October consumer confidence index and Richmond Fed manufacturing index were also significantly lower than the previous and expected values, both showing signs of recession in the US economy.
and these data will make the market expect that Feder rate hike will delay the pace of the market starting to trade and recession. After the data was released last night, the dollar index plummeted , and it has fallen from the high point of 114 to around 111, and the yield of US bond also fell sharply.
At the same time, affected by the expectations of economic recession, Brent crude oil futures fell slightly, COMEX gold strengthened slightly, and US stock rose even more. As of the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.07%, the Nasdaq rose 2.25%, and European stock markets also rose generally.
However, we have noticed that although the US dollar index fell sharply from its high point, the trend of depreciation of the offshore RMB exchange rate has not changed.
A shares Before the market opened, the U.S. Nasdaq futures fell by more than 2%, because the U.S. technology stock fell sharply after the market. As some industry giants reported performance was lower than expected, Microsoft fell by more than 6.7% after the market opened, and Google parent company Alphabet fell by more than 6.7%. The US economic recession can only delay the Fed's interest rate hike, but it cannot change the fact that US companies' profits have dropped sharply due to the US economic recession. They will still have to make profits after valuation. For A-shares, we pay more attention to the Fed's interest rate hike.
risk warning:
stock market is risky, investment should be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently.
